Setting energy performance requirements

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Setting energy performance requirements

• Aleksander Panek
• apanek_at_nape.pl

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HDI2002 (43 countries/173 developed)
4,6 t.oe/capita average use of developed countries
1,7 t.oe/capita average us for the world
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Energy performance Directiverequires that

• every country introduces

but, there is no any specific suggestion related
to the volume of savings to be achievied. The
only European official obligation is related to
Kyoto protocol Poland 94 (6 of reduction) EU
92 (8 of reduction)
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Levels of requirements in Poland

• Prescriptive for non-residential buildings,
• Performance - for residential buildings (maximum
  permssible values).

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Options for setting performance requirements

• analogy - based on an analysis of requirements
  set up by neighbouring countries, and their
  adaptation to conditions.
• economic - is calculation of costs and savings
  and definition of final prescriptive and further
  performance requirements based on energy
  efficiency analysis for different types of
  buildings.
• impact - is a mix of second option and
  calculation of impact on economy analysis. This
  option encompasses the efficiency of the
  investment itself, and the strategic goal of the
  country expressed in terms of expected savings
  (e.g. some percentage of current requirements, or
  required reduction of CO2 for assumed time span).

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Impact estimation

• Model of impact estimation - The model takes into
  account basic impacts as budget income generated
  trough investment and expressed as part of
  investment outlays scope of undertaken
  modernisations and related energy savings or CO2
  reduction.
• Input data
• building stock data required for prediction of
  number of buildings, characterised by the energy
  standard, considered to be modernised within a
  chosen time.
• technical aspects of buildings data required
  for calculations of results of modernizations
  (energy savings assigned to specific measure) as
  well as investment costs of specific measures.
• energy sources data required for calculations
  of economical efficiency of investment and
  related environmental impact
• industry and employment data required for
  estimations of impact of increased rate of
  carried out modernizations on the industrial
  productions as well as on construction and
  employment market.
• macroeconomy data required for estimation of
  budgetary income from taxes coming from
  undertaken investments.

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Ideogram of data dependencies and aggregation
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Scope of carried out modernisations

• Scope of modernizations is crucial for all global
  calculations because it influences value of
  undertaken investments as well as achieved energy
  savings.
• It depends on willingness to pay, a social
  factor, difficult to estimate.
• In analysed model, the profitability of specific
  measures has been used for ordering investment
  options.

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Distribution of volume of possible investments
vs. SPBT value
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Environmental impact

• Reduction of energy consumption due to the
  improved energy standard of buildings results in
  reduction of GHG emission. The value of reduction
  can be estimated using specific emissions of
  energy sources (fuels) and the data about energy
  source efficiency in modernized buildings.

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Production and employment

• Increased volume of investments results in
  increased construction and production output. The
  factor that stimulates production is the total
  value of loans taken for realisation of
  investments the down payments are recognised as
  the element of maintenance, thus they do not
  influence rate of production.

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Fiscal impact

• Budgetary cash flows, influenced by more
  restrictive requirements, are caused by income
  from taxes related to the increase of production
  output and increase of employment. The trade off
  to balance volume of supporting modernisations
  and the potential indirect budgetary income is a
  problem of decision makers.

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Data for Poland(Building Stock)

• The estimation of possible energy savings in
  buildings in Poland requires characterization of
  the buildings stock. The most important data for
  total energy savings estimation are scope of
  investment and distribution of energy standard
  among different types of building as well as used
  energy sources.

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Data for Poland(Fuel Characteristics)

• Estimation of costs of saved energy is essential
  for calculation of economic efficiency. The
  energy costs vary over the country and depend on
  the building location and eligible costs of
  energy production.
• Calculations of environmental impact connected
  with improvement of energy standard of buildings
  require data concerning specific CO2 emissions
  for different fuels.

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Data for Poland(Energy Savings and Investment
Costs)

• There are several possible investments options
  improving energy standard of buildings. It would
  be difficult to perform detailed estimation for
  all possible combinations of investment options
  and mentioned variables. Therefore, for this
  model the average values have been taken.

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Data for Poland(Macroeconomics, wages, taxes)

• The estimation of fiscal impact due to the
  improved energy performance it requires several
  macroeconomic assumptions and information about
  production capabilities.

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Data for Poland(Production and employment)

• Information about production is crucial for
  calculations concerning employment and fiscal
  impact due to an increased industrial production
  and construction.

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Results of estimations

• The presented model allows different simulations
  in order to identify the inter relations of
  specified impacts.
• The following assumptions for financing has been
  used for sample predictions

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Results of estimations(Economically efficient
potential of modernisation )

• Using the model for estimation of the range of
  activities during the planning period (25 years)
  provides information about potential of the
  market.

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Results of estimations(GHG emission reduction)

• Results of estimation of global GHG emission
  reduction per one year under the condition of
  realisation of the whole potential of energy
  efficient investment are collected in Table

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Results of estimations(Employment and production)

• The increased requirements for production in
  manufacturing facilities will result in a need
  for new workers. From other side reduced energy
  consumption results in lost of work places in the
  mining industry. Below table shows the range of
  these changes in Poland

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Results of estimations(Fiscal impact)

• Analysis of cash flows and other consequences can
  help decision makers to decide about the range
  and means of incentives to support the
  modernisation investment.

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Conclusions

• The described impacts have indirect character and
  the real interdependencies of savings, employment
  and fiscal cash flow are far more complicated
  then the ones described above. Thus, there is the
  evidence about the need for further
  interdisciplinary work of economists and energy
  efficiency experts. The presented method could be
  used for comparisons of MS stewardship towards
  energy savings directive implementation

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• THANK YOU
• FOR
• ATTENTION