Systematisation of Futures Research Methods

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Systematisation of Futures Research Methods

• Exploring the Limits, opportunities and
  Challenges of Futures Oriented Policy Analysis
• Ana Jakil
• Vienna University

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Purposes

• promote the futurising of thinking of
  specialists/policy analysists involved in global
  governance processes and confronted with the
  distinctive features of global change
• Illuminate the analytical shortcomings of common
  approaches to policy analysis failing to
  sensitise the decision making for long-term
  perspectives and promote sustainable global
  change
• provide know-how on effective use of futures
  research methods in policy analysis of global
  governance processes that enhances the activity
  of specialists involved in global governance
  processes and enable them to create sustainable
  futures

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Challenges of Global Change

• Growing uncertainties and complexities of
  problems of global concern
• Struggle of international policy makers to build
  effective cooperative problem-solving
  arrangements, known as global governance

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Shortcomings of approaches to PA

• WHAT?
• Lacking consideration of the interdependent
  nature of problems of global concern
• Lacking sensitivenes to complex, fluid nature of
  global challenges
• Lacking sensitivines to long-term pespective
• Failing to account for the importance of new
  emergencies of global governance (transnational
  civil society, interconnectedness among states)
  involved in global governance processes

• WHY?
• Focus on details of everyday problems with
  apparent practical solutions
• Problems seen as static, ignoring the underlying
  continuous societal change
• Concern with immediate decision making, near-time
  frame with immediate policy
• Exploration of unknown in conventional
  disciplinary paterns of reasoning

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Potential uses of FRM for PA
Desirable futures
Possible futures
Probable futures
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The diversity of FRM

• Agent Modeling, Causal Layered Analysis,
  Cross-Impact Analysis, Decision Modeling, Delphi
  Techniques, Econometrics and Statistical
  Modeling, Environmental Scanning, Field Anomaly
  Relaxation, Futures Wheel, Genius Forecasting,
  Vision, and Intuition, Interactive Scenarios,
  Multiple Perspective, Participatory Methods,
  Relevance Trees and Morphological Analysis,  Road
  Mapping, Scenarios, Simulation-Gaming, State of
  the Future Index, Structural Analysis, Systems
  Modeling, Technological Sequence Analysis, Text
  Mining, Trend Impact Analysis etc.
• ( T. J. Gordon)

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Assumptions behind the principles of quality use
of FRM in PA

• Perspective dependence of knowledge
• Continous non-linear social change
• Knowledge is a subjective process

• impossible to uncover the thruth
• solutions to problems do not lie in past
• Information is not a static good to be
  transmitted between persons

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Principles of good use of FRM

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Good Practices Concept for Global Marshall Plan
Initiative Think Tank

• Learning Theaters
• Reality Checkpoint, collaborative
• elaboration of knowledge on eco-social
• market economy.
• Transformation lab, transforming,
• re-prgramming, exploring von contexts and
• solutions, perspective change, presenta-
• tions,development of other point of view.
• Futures Cubicle, elaboration and to
• playing of alternative scenarios of politics
• Evolution chamber, exploring ways
• how to support the emergence of good practices
  
• Networking matrix, documenting the expertise of
  the scientifsts
• (wagner, 2005)
• Scientific Committee dynamic structure,
  non-representative thinkers, thinkers with
  opposing views

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• Thank you for your attention.
• Ana Jakil
• Vienna University
• ana.jakil_at_univie.ac.at