MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation Futures

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MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation
Futures
Scanning Science Popularisation Futures Bighi,
24 October 2007 FUTURREG Malta
Introduction to Futures Studies and
Tools Jennifer Cassingena Harper
MARIS-FUTURREG Exploring Regional Innovation
Futures
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Future Studies

• Future studies is a discipline that includes all
  forms of looking into the future, from trend
  extrapolation to utopia. (McHale). It is a study
  of the ways in which futures can happen.
• Future studies are the systematic identification
  and study of alternative futures to enhance our
  ability to identify the opportunities and
  mitigate the risks which alternative futures
  present.
• Future may be defined as a time to come an array
  of possibilities emerging from conditions in the
  present.
• Forecast is an estimate of what might happen in
  the future - a likely occurrence, a description
  of a possible future based on the collection,
  analysis and synthesis of available pertinent
  data.
• Source Prospectiva

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Foresight Science or Art
Source FOREN Guide
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Foresight - Science or art?

• Foresight is an approach at overlap of three
  converging trends
• since mid-1990s (Miles)
• Futures Studies shift from predictive to
  exploratory approaches, iteration and involvement
  of users for embedding /implementation.
• Since 1950s Futures studies or futurology
  has not been considered an objective science but
  an art, a composition of imagination and
  subjective certainties . an individual and a
  community not to speak about the whole mankind
  do not have only one future but indeterminately
  many possible, alternative ones. (Jouvenel
• Strategic Planning shift from rational to
  evolutionary approaches, uncertainty is the norm,
  economic progress linked to disruptive
  innovations, qualitative vs quantitative changes
  within stable structures long-term planning
  discredited but still needed.
• Policy Analysis shift to open, participatory
  approach, knowledge is distributed and
  policy-makers have to find ways to capture it.

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Defining Foresight

• What Foresight is NOT
• An approach for predicting the future (prediction
  implies knowing aspect(s) of the future with
  certainty and precision. This is not possible in
  social contexts with qualitative rather than
  quantitative factors predominating).
• A Panacea or universal cure

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Foresight is traditionally defined as

• A tool or set of tools used to survey as
  systematically as possible what chances for
  development and what options for action are open
  at present, and then follow up analytically to
  determine to what alternative future outcomes the
  developments would lead 1
• 2. More recently, it has been recognized that
  foresight is more than just a set of tools, and
  involves a process whereby the tools are just one
  element, interacting with human inputs of
  intellect, expertise and sector-specific
  knowledge. a process - a systematic,
  participatory, future intelligence-gathering and
  medium-to-long-term vision-building process2
• 1 Martin B.R and Irvine J. (1989) Research
  Foresight Priority-Setting in Science
• 2 EU FOREN - Foresight for regional
  developmentFORENA Practical Guide to Regional
  Futures http//foren.jrc.es/

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The human dimension

• But foresight is essentially embodied in the
  actors involved in its design and implementation
  and may thus also be defined in relation to two
  key human attributes
• 3. foresight as a philosophy or particular
  mindset/approach to life evident at the
  individual or group level. It separates the
  proactive from the reactive, the path-dependent
  from the path-breakers.
• 4. foresight as a capacity for contemplating,
  anticipating and coping with the future also
  evident at the individual or group level. It
  entails a set of skills which can be taught but
  presumes a mindset open to creative thinking and
  proactive exploration of the future.

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Actors in the spotlight
Source adapted from Georghiou, 2003
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Strategic Futures Analysis

• Characteristics
• Structured, evidence-based process
• Wide range of analytical tools
• Resilient and innovative strategies
• Neutral space for challenge
• Encourages broader dialogue

Source Future Generation
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Quantitative Tools (use of statistics and other data) to elaborate future trends and impacts Trend extrapolation Simulation modelling Cross impact analysis System dynamics
Qualitative Tools (drawing on expert knowledge) to develop long term strategies Delphi method Experts panels Brainstorming Mindmapping Scenario analysis workshops SWOT analysis
Tools to identify key points of action to determine planning strategies Critical/ key technologies Relevance trees Morphological analysis
Source FOREN
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Types of Tools

• Quantitative Tools provide numerical
  representation of future developments, e.g.
  forecasts and modelling. They give a great deal
  of weight, an ability to examine rates and scales
  of changes but they limit the comprehension of
  social and political variables and are not always
  reliable.
• Qualitative Tools vary from creative thinking to
  more systematic techniques. Used when data are
  hard to collect or not available.
• Foresight can never be completely dominated by
  quantitative methods the mix depends on access
  to relevant expertise and the nature of the
  issues.

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Types of Tools

• Exploratory Tools (outward bound) start from
  the present and move forward to examine kinds of
  alternative future developments it can lead to.
  Look at implications of possible developments
  that lie outside familiar trends What if methods
  
• Normative Tools (inward bound) start with the
  creation of a preliminary view of possible
  (preferred) futures, then an analysis of how
  these futures may grow out of the present -
  asking what trends and events would take us there
  or can be avoided. How methods.

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Tools by Phases

• Define the problemspecific challenges and needs,
  e.g. a longer-term innovation strategy), set
  the time horizon.
• Methods Panels, SWOTs or brain-storming,
• 2. Scope -possible focus on specific sectors,
  bottom-up vs top-down, extent and structure of
  consultation (experts/non-experts), resources,
  choosing appropriate methods.
• 3. Identify the key variables analysing the
  relations between variables, by placing them in
  matrix to identify drivers.
• Methods panels/ interviews/desk-based
  research/specialised studies/ cross-impact
  analysis influence and dependency graph.
• Gathering data on trends and drafting hypotheses.
  
• Methods trend analysis, simulation modelling,
  weak signals.
• 5. Exploring possible future through
  scenario-building
• Methods Exploratory or Normative
  approaches, panels

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Popular Tools Expert panels Scenarios
baseline, success scenarios and disruption
scenarios On-line fora and delphi Horizon
scanning Creativity sessions Future Dialogues
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Popular Methods Worldwide (EFMN)
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Multi-use of Methods
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Blends of social themes and policy concerns
A balance of qualitative and quantitative for
robust, evidence-based results Creative
process for creative product Adaptive foresight
and context-based learning
Hybrid Approaches
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Year Delphi Mixed Panel/Scenario/Roadmapping etc
1971- 1st 4 Japanese STA surveys
1989 Ministry of Economic Affairs Netherlands
1990 1st German
1991 5th Japanese Critical Technologies USA
1992 Public Good Science Fund New Zealand
1993 South Korea Technologies at Threshold of 21st Century Germany
1994 France Japan/Germany Mini Delphi
1995 1st UK Foresight Programme 100 Key Technologies France
1996 Japan-German Delphi Matching ST to Future Needs Australia Foresight Steering Committee Netherlands
1997 ANEP Spain Foresight Ireland
1998 Austria TEP Hungary South Africa New Zealand 1st Swedish Foresight Brazil 2020
1999 ITC Foresight Thailand 2nd UK TF Programme Futur 0 Germany 2nd 100 Key Techs France
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Year Delphi Mixed Panel/Scenario/Roadmapping
2000 7th Japanese Prospectar Brazil Technology Foresight Programme Brazil ET2000 (Portugal) IPTS Futures EU
2001 Technology Foresight Chile Futur 1 Germany Technology Foresight Greece TF Exercise Czech
2002 3rd UK Programme eForesee (Cyprus, Estonia, Malta) 2nd Swedish TF National Technology Foresight Denmark NIH Roadmap USA
2003 Foretech (Bulgaria, Romania) 2nd Swedish Foresight Norwegian Research Council 2020 studies
2004 8th Japanese Futuris France ANRT France AGORA 2020 France Nordic Hydrogen energy foresight
2005 3 Moments Brazil Finnsight Finland 21st Century Challenges GAO USA
2006 SITRA Foresight Finland
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References

• http//forera.jrc.es/fta/intro.html
• http//www.efmn.info
• http//cordis.europa.eu/foresight/home.htm
• http//www.eranet-forsociety.net/ForSociety
• http//www.costa22.org/
• http//forlearn.jrc.es/index.htm
• http//www.unido.org/doc/12296
• http//www.futurreg.net/
• http//www.acunu.org/millennium/
• http//www.theworldcafe.com/
• http//www.futuresearch.net/