Axis of Good

1
Axis of Good?

• Presidents Chavez, Kirchner, Lula, and the
  Integration of Latin America

2
Hugo Rafael Chavez Frias

• Born on July 28, 1954 in a large town called
  Sabeneta, which is within Barinas state in
  Venezuela.
• Organized a loose political study group which
  discussed politics and revolution as a Army
  Lieutenant in the late 70s and early 80s.
• Group became radicalized with the oil crash and
  structural adjustment policies and rampant
  corruption of then President Perez.
• Turning point for him was 1989 nationwide riots,
  El Caracazo.
• Elected president December 6, 1998

3
Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva

• Lula was born on October 27, 1945 in the small
  town of Garanhuns in the state of Pernambuco in
  north-east Brazil.
• In 1966 Lula began working at a metals factory in
  Brazil, it was here that he first started
  participating in trade union activity.
• He made a name for himself in the early 60s and
  70s as a fierce union leader and was the major
  impetus behind the transformation of the
  previously government-friendly union into an
  independent political force, the Workers Party
  (PT).
• Elected, October 27, 2002.

4
Nestor Carlos Kirchner Ostoic

• Born on Feb. 25, 1950, in Río Gallegos, capital
  of Santa Cruz.
• First became involved early on in politics as a
  member of the Justice Movement Peronist Youth
  organization in the early 70s.
• Mayor of Río Gallegos in 1987, and then as a
  governor of Santa Cruz first elected in 1991, a
  position he would hold through two subsequent
  reelections until 1999.
• Sworn in as president of Argentina May 25, 2003.
  

5
Commanalities

• Populist
• Personalistic
• Strong executive
• Center-Left or Leftist political rhetoric and
  orientation.
• Center-Left presidents similar to European Social
  Democrats.
• Do not support neoliberal free trade policies
  imposed by U.S. etc.

6
Chavez Accomplishments

• Social Investment Over 1.7 billion invested in
  health (Barrio Adentro), food, education
  (Mission Robinson), infrastructure, etc. in 2004
  alone.
• 1999 Constitution one of worlds most
  progressive.
• Encourages participatory democracy. Judged most
  democratic compared to previous governments by
  most analysts, human rights groups.
• Nine election or referendum victories since 1998.
• Since 1998 3 million people have received access
  to potable water for the first time and another 1
  million have received sewage service
• 30 thousand homes built, 700 new schools built
  2,000 refurbished - 36 thousand new teachers
• Over the past year 8 hundred thousand illiterates
  have graduated from the second phase of a 3 phase
  literacy program
• 28 thousand children have received free
  vaccinations, and 18 million patients have been
  seen by clinic doctors in areas that had no
  medical facilities just 2 years ago
• Micro-credits and grassroots empowerment, over 10
  thousand cooperatives with over 6.5 thousand
  members. Similarly, hundreds of thousands of
  dollars have gone into the hands of women-owned,
  small businesses and cooperatives through the
  Womens Bank
• Landless campesinos have received over 2.5
  million acres of productive land and over 30
  thousand titles have been given to urban
  squatters
• Airwaves have been opened up to accommodate
  dozens of independent radio and TV broadcasters
  who provide much needed uncensored news
• Popularity. Possible nomination for Nobel Peace
  Prize.

7
Lula Accomplishments

• Lula
• Solidified its position as a champion of
  developing countries and legitimized its role as
  a tough adversary on the international scene when
  it successfully challenged U.S. cotton subsidies
  before the World Trade Organization (WTO).
• Deployed 1,200 peacekeeping troops to Haiti this
  summer and will direct an international force of
  8,000 peacekeeping troops meant to be a message
  to the world that the country desires and is
  worthy of a permanent seat on the United Nations
  Security Council.
• Played a large role in forming the G-20
  organization of developing nations, which has
  proven to be both a real and symbolic challenge
  to the developed world.
• Stalled World Trade Organization (WTO)
  negotiations at Cancún and Free Trade Area of the
  Americas (FTAA) talks because of protectionist
  policies of U.S. and E.U.
• Popularity.

8
Kirchner Accomplishments

• Kirchner
• Military Reform Pushed to overturn amnesty laws
  and punish generals for grave human-rights abuses
  during the country's 1976-1983 dictatorship.
  Also purged corrupt intelligence services.
• Police Reform Fired corrupt police bosses.
• Justice Reform Purging of the most notorious
  and corrupt judges. Nominated progressive judges
  for courts.
• Popularity.

9
Latin Americas Electoral Shift - Timeline

• 1998 Hugo Chavez President of Venezuela
• 2000 Ricardo Lagos President of Chile
• 2002 Lula da Silva President of Brazil
• 2003 Nestor Kirchner President of Argentina
• 2003 Lucio Gutierrez President of Ecuador
• 2004 Tabare Vazquez President of Uruguay
• Regional Elections Results 2004 Venezuela,
  Chile, Nicaragua, (Brazil?)
• Notable mentions Spain President Jose Luis
  Rodriguez Zapatero

10
Presidents Problems/Obstacles

• Lula Military still too powerful. Government
  bureaucracy-opposition. Increasingly seen as
  ineffectual leader by supporters, lack of many
  accomplishments, economic and political policy
  seen as too similar to previous governments.
  Prioritized economic measure such as reducing
  inflation, IMF payments, over social investment.
  Approval rating in decline, federal workers on
  strike, corruption scandal involving his closest
  minister, rural unrest sweeping the country,
  economy stalling. Nearly half of Brazilian
  citizens are considered poor and homicide rate is
  the second highest in the world
• Kirchner Rise in kidnapping gangs targeting
  middle-class families and rich. Piqueteros
  (unemployed) protests. Possible assassination
  attempts (2003 malfunctioning presidential
  helicopter, 2004 airplane, presidential residence
  intruder). Criticism from environmentalists.
• Chavez Govt. bureacracy. Fractious and
  unstable opposition which now is increasingly
  turning towards violence 2002 implicated in
  shootings (Metropolitan Police), coup 2003
  bombings of consulates, military
  headquarters-barracks (rogue soldiers linked to
  opposition now in Miami), 2004 violent protests
  of G15 Summit Columbian mercenaries plot
  assassination of state prosecutor Danilo
  Anderson.
• Only Chavez rejects FTAA unconditionally.

11
Integration - Background

• Integration theory Process by which nations can
  increase cooperation and minimize conflict in
  their relationships. Centrally concerned with
  the role economic cooperation plays not only in
  fostering greater economic efficiency but also in
  expanding cooperation in areas like politics and
  defense.
• Integration has been the main objective of
  Brazilian diplomacy for decades.
• Brazil is worlds tenth largest economy,
  surpassing that of either Russia or Canada, as
  well as the 5th largest population, also contains
  vast reserves of natural resources and possesses
  many of the physical and human elements to
  warrant being considered a significant world
  economic power.
• Latin America has often modeled itself after
  Europe and especially upon ideas like the E.U.

12
Integration Counterweight?

• Trade blocs and other organizations like Mercosur
  (Southern Common Market) are increasingly seen by
  Latin Americans and others as vehicles for Latin
  American development and greater strength, both
  economic and political, in relation to the
  developed countries.

13
Integration Organizations I

• Andean Community of Nations (CAN) 1969 Bolivia,
  Columbia, Ecuador, Peru, and Venezuela.
• Caribbean Common Market (CARICOM) 1973 Antigua
  and Barbuda, The Bahamas, Barbados, Belize,
  Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Haiti, Jamaica,
  Montserrat, Saint Lucia, St. Kitts and Nevis, St.
  Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname, Trinidad
  and Tobago. Associate Members Anguilla,
  Bermuda, British Virgin Islands, Cayman Islands,
  Turks and Caicos Islands.
• Central American Common Market (CACM) 1960
  Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua, and
  Costa Rica.
• Also Association of Caribbean States Group of
  Three Free Trade Area of the Americas.

14
Yellow UngroupedPurple CARICOMBrown
Central AmericaGreen G3
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16
Integration Organizations II

• Mercosur (Southern Common Market) - Trading zone
  among Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay,
  founded in 1991. Its purpose is to promote free
  trade and movement of goods and peoples, skills
  and money, between these countries. Bolivia,
  Chile, Peru, Venezuela and Mexico have associate
  member status.
• Andean Community of Nations (CAN)- Established by
  the Cartagena Agreement in 1969 (as the Andean
  Pact), the Andean Community promotes the economic
  and social development and integration of its
  member states Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru
  and Venezuela.
• South American Community of Nations (SACN)
  Proposed merging of Mercosur and the CAN Latin
  American trade blocs into one bloc and free trade
  area. Many compare it to the first grouping of
  European powers which led to the European Union.
  Initially it is a response to the FTAA to avoid
  vulnerability in individual negotiations, etc.,
  it could develop further into a economic and
  political alternative. Two page draft to be
  signed by groups 10 presidents Dec. 9 says
  participating countries conceive the South
  American Community of Nations as a permanent
  mechanism of political coordination and cultural,
  economic, social and physical integration.

17
Integration Problems Obstacles

• Protectionist orientations and policies between
  countries (e.g. Argentina and Brazil).
• Political-territorial disputes, etc. (e.g.
  Bolivia and Chile).
• Peru, Columbia, Ecuador, and Chile who will be
  participating in integration efforts but at the
  same time have already signed (or intend to)
  bilateral free trade agreements with the U.S.
• External tariffs of Chile (6), Peru (10), less
  than half or quarter that of Brazil and
  Argentina. Both say can't raise tariffs to the
  rest of the world just to be in line with its
  South American neighbors.
• Possible solution SACN will work on political
  agreements before economic unlike history of
  E.U., etc.
• Disconnect between foreign and trade-economy
  ministers.
• 500 year legacies of colonialism and continued
  great power intervention-manipulation.

18
Statistics

• Mercosur 42 of Latin American market.
• 58 of Latin Americas total GDP.
• 32.6 of all of Latin America's exports.
• CAN 22 of Latin American market.
• 38 of Latin Americas total GDP.
• 17 of all of Latin America's exports.
• TOTALS 64 /- of Latin American market.
• 49 /- of all Latin Americas exports.
• Would have a population of 360 million, a gross
  domestic product of 800 billion US dollars,
  foreign trade above 188 billion US dollars. 30
  of the world's water reserves and 100 years of
  oil and gas reserves, in addition to being one of
  the planet's biggest sources of food production.

19
The Future Important Dates

• South American Community of Nations December 9,
  2004.
• Latin America Dates
• 2005
• JANUARY? FTAA
• MARCH/APRIL Details of SACN TBA location of
  headquarters, structure (regional parliament, EU,
  etc.)
• NOVEMBER Honduras (Presidential) (4)
• DECEMBER Chile (Presidential) (6)
• Haiti? (Presidential) (5)
• 2006
• FEBRUARY Costa Rica (Presidential) (4)
• APRIL Peru (Presidential) (5) Columbia
  (Presidential) (4)
• JUNE Mexico (Presidential) (6)
• OCTOBER Nicaragua (Presidential) (5)
• NOVEMBER Venezuela (Presidential) (6)

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21
Research

• Burke, Sandy and Sam Goble. Brazil Continues to
  Emerge, but has not Quite Arrived. 18 Aug. 2004.
  lt http//www.coha.org. gt.
• Elections Latin America's Election Schedule.
  Latin Business Chronicle. lt http//www.latinbusin
  esschronicle.com/topics/elections.htm gt.
• Fraser, Cleveland. International Relations.
  Understanding Contemporary Latin America. New
  York Lynne Rienner Pub, 2001.
• Gott, Richard. In the Shadow of the Liberator
  The Impact of Hugo Chavez on Venezuela and Latin
  America. New York, NY. Verso Books, 2001.
• Gunson, Phil. Charges fly in string of
  bombings. Miami Herald. lt http//www.miami.co
  m/mld/miamiherald/news/world/americas/6977715.htm
  gt.
• Hopkins, Jack W. Latin America in the World.
  Latin America Perspectives on a Region. New
  York, NY Holmes Meier Publishers, 1987.
• Hall, Kevin G. Close calls prompt Argentines to
  fear for their president's safety. LexisNexis
  Academic. Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service.
  10 Nov. 2004.
• Oppenheimer, Andres. South American trade
  agreement doesn't add up. Miami Herald. lt
  http//www.miami.com/mld/miamiherald/news/columnis
  ts/andres_oppenheimer/9998155.htm gt.
• ---. South American community may not be a pipe
  dream. Miami Herald. lt http//www.miami.com/m
  ld/miamiherald/news/columnists/andres_oppenheimer/
  10268916.htm

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Conclusion

• Increasing oil prices, booming commodities
  (soybeans, agriculture, etc.), etc. have
  bolstered the economies of countries like
  Venezuela, Argentina, and Brazil (which are also
  the main force behind integration efforts) and
  therefore eased pressures on leaders while at the
  same time facilitating integration.
• Integration is now a goal of most newly elected
  presidents, especially the increasing number of
  center-left and leftists.
• Economic integration can lead to political and
  defense integration further strengthening Latin
  America in respect to the Western Europe and the
  U.S. At the same time decreasing and eventually
  eliminating other disputes.
• There will be many obstacles to the uniting of
  Latin America. However, increasingly
  unilateralist military, economic, and foreign
  policy, of the U.S., as well as the other factors
  mentioned, have all had the effect of uniting
  disparate interests of Latin American countries,
  and made the long-sought goal of integration
  perhaps the most likely it has ever been.