Hazard Loss Estimates of Assets at Florida A

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Hazard Loss Estimates of Assets at Florida AM
University

• Jenna Pagnotti
• Remy Agenor
• Advisor Makola M. Abdullah, Ph.D.

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Outline

• Background
• HAZUSMH
• Research Objectives
• Methodology
• Results
• Conclusion
• Recommendations
• Future Work
• Acknowledgements

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Questions To Think About

• What are direct and indirect losses?
• How does HAZUSMH estimate each?
• How do estimates change for different building
  types?
• How can the effect of disasters be minimized?
• What effects will debris have on the school and
  its direct surrounding area? (i.e. Buildings,
  roadways, casualties, etc.)

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Natural Disasters

• Most common earthquakes, floods, tornados, and
  hurricanes
• 800,000 people killed worldwide in the 1990s
• Over 250 million people affected in 2003
• Caused 65 billion in damages in 2003 alone
• 280 billion could have been saved if 40 billion
  was spent on mitigation

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Natural Disasters in Florida

• 2004 Hurricane Season
• Hurricanes Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne
• 23 billion in losses
• 79 deaths
• Surpassed Hurricane Andrew

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Saffir-Simpson Categories of Hurricanes
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Categories 1 and 2

• Category 1 Minimal Damage (74-95 mph)
• Broken tree branches
• Bent and broken signs
• Some damage to mobile homes
• Category 2 Moderate Damage (96-110 mph)
• Heavy damage to trees
• Some damage to roofs, windows and doors
• Major damage to mobile homes

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Categories 3 and 4

• Category 3 Extensive Damage (111-130 mph)
• Large trees knocked down
• Buildings near shore destroyed
• Flooding near coast
• Damage to roofs, windows, and doors
• Category 4 Extreme Damage (131-155 mph)
• Severe damage to homes
• Mobile homes completely destroyed
• Widespread flooding

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Category 5

• Category 5 Catastrophic Damage (156 mph)
• Completely destroys roofs on many buildings
• Some buildings completely destroyed
• Small buildings overturned or blown away
• Very severe damage to buildings near the shore

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Major Florida Hurricanes

• Since 1851, 36 of hurricanes in the US made
  landfall.
• A look at major hurricanes (category 3 or higher)

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Hurricane Dennis July 10-11, 2005
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FEMA

• Federal Emergency Management Agency
• Part of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security
• Prepare for hazards
• Manage recovery efforts
• Initiate proactive mitigation program

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Florida AM University

• Established 1887 in Tallahassee, FL
• 419 Acres
• Largest Historically Black Colleges and
  Universities (HBCU) in U.S.
• 3900 Faculty and Staff
• 13,000 Students

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Florida AM University

• Campus consists of 171 buildings
• 35 faculty facilities
• 14 Research Facilities (3000 7500 sq ft.)
• 49 Dorms and Apartments (44,000 90,000 sq ft.)
• 26 Classroom Buildings (15,000 100,000 sq ft.)
• 10 Athletic Facilities
• 15 Temporary Trailers

(Lee Hall)
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Satellite Campuses

• FAMU/FSU College of Engineering
• Tallahassee, FL
• JA Mulrennan College of Entomology
• Panama City, FL
• FAMU/FSU College of Engineering
  (httpwww.Innovation-park.com)

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Florida AM University

• Total Assets Valued at 190 Million
• Operating Budget of Over 210 Million
• Pre-Disaster Mitigation (PDM) Disaster Resistant
  University (DRU) grant
• Reduce risk of disaster
• Reduce need for assistance

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Research Objectives

• Create a realistic hurricane scenario
• Analyze probability curves from HAZUSMH
• Estimate direct losses due to hurricanes at
  Florida AM University using HAZUSMH

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Objectives

• Estimate direct losses due to hurricane for each
  campus location
• Compare building replacement and content value to
  monetary value after hurricane hits each location

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Direct Losses

• Losses in which buildings are damaged physically.
• Structures
• Contents
• Building interiors

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HAZUSMH Basics

• Estimates potential losses from earthquakes,
  floods and hurricane winds
• Uses state-of-the-art Geographic Information
  System (GIS)
• Displays results of damages
• Analyzes a study region

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HAZUSMH Levels of Analysis

• Level 1 - Standard
• Level 2
• InCast Inventory Collection and Survey Tool
• BIT Building Import Tool
• Level 3 - Involves Parameter Modification

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HAZUSMH Limitations

• Results must be considered as average for groups
  of similar buildings
• Inventory data might not line up on maps
• Loss estimates for large regions of 2,000 blocks
  might take up to 4 hours
• Hurricane model does not calculate indirect losses

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Building Types Used With HAZUSMH

• The majority of commercial, residential and
  industrial buildings are not considered
  individually.
• 39 building types
• One-story wood-frame single-family housing
• Two-story masonry multi-unit housing
• High-rise steel-framed commercial engineered
  building
• 33 occupancy classes
• Single-family dwelling
• Retail trade
• Heavy industry
• Churches

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Building Types cont.

• Further characteristics
• Roof shape
• Roof covering
• Opening protection

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HAZUSMH Calculating Loss

• Formulas calculate damage probability
• Expected Building Loss
• Expected Content Loss
• Expected Loss-of-Use
• Results are used to estimate direct economic
  losses

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Methodology

• Use InCast to create a database of the buildings
  and input as a User Defined Facilities
• Exact geographical location of each building
• Frame types
• Square footage
• Number of windows and doors

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Building Database

• Location
• Square footage
• Frame type (steel, wood, etc.)
• Number of stories
• Number of doors and windows
• Topography
• Wind shielding
• Wind exposure
• Shielding height

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Building Database

• Location
• Frame type (steel, wood, etc.)
• Occupancy Classes
• Residential
• Commercial
• Educational
• Wind Exposure
• Suburban Tallahassee locations
• Oceanfront Panama City, FL location
• Wind Shielding
• 3 sides shielded main campus
• Buildings with obviously less 3 sides number of
  actual sides shielded

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Assumptions

• Wind Exposure
• Suburban main campus and Quincy, FL locations
• Oceanfront Panama City, FL locations
• Wind Shielding
• 3 sides shielded main campus
• Buildings with obviously less 3 sides number of
  actual sides shielded
• Shielding Height
• Similar building height
• Similar tree height

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Building Database

• Shielding Height
• Similar building height
• Similar tree height
• Wind Debris Source
• Unknown wind direction
• Unknown debris
• Topography
• Slope Tallahassee locations
• Flat Panama City, FL location
• Percentage of doors and windows using model
• Uses two buildings from each class (auxiliary,
  administration, instructional)
• Ratio as a function of square footage

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Benefit-Cost Analysis

• Compares the benefits versus cost
• Two step process
• Before mitigation
• After mitigation
• Benefit losses before losses after
• Also takes into account
• Probability of various hazards
• Useful lifetime of the mitigation plan

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Purpose of Benefit-Cost Analysis

• Why does FEMA want a benefit-cost analysis?
• Benefits must exceed costs
• Is the mitigation project worth doing
• Provides common grounds to compare and prioritize
  mitigation projects
• Shows that mitigation works

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Leon County User Defined Storm Track
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Main Campus User Defined Storm Track
W User-defined facilities
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User Defined Hurricane

• Based on category-two hurricane

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User Defined Hurricane

• 58 storm systems within a 25 nautical mile radius
• Most are tropical storms

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Parameters for Hurricane

• Translational speed 34.52 mph
• Radius to maximum winds 22.37 mi
• Wind speed 110 mph
• Barometric pressure 972 mbars

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Parameters For Sample Analysis

• Created Category 5 storm scenario
• Worst possible scenario to area
• Steel framed, medium rise (3 5 stories),
  engineered commercial buildings
• Most common building type in area

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Example Chart - Demographics
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Sample Graph Using Damage Functions
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Sample Graph Using Building Debris Functions
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Sample Damage Summary Report
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Economic Losses
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Economic Losses
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Results
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Results
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Results
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Results
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Results
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Direct Losses for Main Campus Buildings
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Damage Classifications
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Results
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Conclusion

• Built database
• Created hurricane scenario
• Input parameters
• Determined probability of damage
• Replacement and contents values 256,342,000
• Losses estimate 3,204,910

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Recommendations

• Research of mitigation techniques
• Form mitigation plan
• Use of different estimation software

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Future Work

• Wind shielding of buildings
• The type of shielding
• The amount of shielding that each building has
• Terrain/wind exposure of the university
• Urban
• Suburban
• Open
• Tree coverage around campus
• The amount and type
• The age and height
• Frame Types
• Steel moment
• Wood, light or industrial

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Future Work

• Run strongest storm possible
• Estimate damage due to extremely high sustained
  winds
• Compare HAZUS probabilistic storm results to
  user-defined storm
• Estimate damages due to different storms
• Determine the loss of a building as a function of
  damage probability
• Individual loss of buildings cannot be calculated
  by HAZUS
• Design a function that will calculate these
  losses

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Acknowledgements

• We would like to thank the following for their
  continued help
• Wind Hazard and Earthquake Engineering Laboratory
• Makola M. Abdullah, Ph. D.
• Waleed T. Barnawi
• Karla A. Villarreal-Morga
• Office of Environmental Health and Safety
• James Conoly
• Office of Facilities Planning and Construction
• Samuel Houston
• Karen Green-Brown

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References

• HAZUS User Manual
• http//www.fema.gov
• http//www.sun-sentinel.com
• http//meted.ucar.edu/hurrican/strike/text/htc_t4.
  htm
• http//nws.noaa.org
• http//nhc.noaa.org
• http//www.famu.edu
• http//hurricane.csc.noaa.gov/hurricanes/viewer.ht
  ml
• http//web.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/NEWS/0,,c
  ontentMDK20169861menuPK34457pagePK34370piPK
  34424theSitePK4607,00.html