Natural Gas News: Any Hope For Bulls?

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Commodity Trading Research
Natural Gas News Any Hope For Bulls?
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• Hi, My name is Justin and Im with Commodity
  Trading Research, today were reviewing our
  recently published article

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• Natural Gas News Any Hope For Bulls?

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• No doubt about it, the situation in natural gas
  has officially gone from bad to downright
  ridiculous. The commodity broke to new decade
  lows below 1.90 mmBtuyesterday thanks to weeks
  of freakishly warm weather in Eastern US.

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• Fact is, temperatures across the Eastern seaboard
  have been well above average since early
  November.
• Heres a chart

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• As you can see, natural gas is still stuck in a
  steep bear market thanks to resilient US
  production, abundant inventories, and warm
  temperatures.

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• Speaking of inventories

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• Last Thursdays EIA natural gas report revealed
  there are 3,880 billion cubic feet (bcf) in
  storage for the week ending December 4th.

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• While that number in 76 bcf lower than the
  previous week, its 15.3 above year ago levels
  and 6.5 higher than the five year average.
  Heres the EIAs storage chart

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• Notice how current inventories (blue line) are
  well above the 5-year average range (shaded
  area). Without question, there are abundant
  quantities of natural gas sitting in US storage
  caverns right now.

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• Is there any hope for natural gas bulls right now?

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• Unfortunately, no Even though the price of the
  commodity is trading just shy of the 2012 low at
  1.90 mmBtu, its unlikely we see any dramatic
  upturn soon. Heres why

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• Judging by the NOAAs 8-14 day outlook, Old Man
  Winter is still nowhere in sight. The Eastern US
  will likely remain stuck in this dominant warm
  weather pattern through Christmas.

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• Whats causing this abnormal Eastern US weather?
  Most meteorologists are pointing the finger at El
  Niño. The disruptive Pacific Ocean phenomenon
  tends to bring mild temperatures to much of the
  US.

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• According to Accuweather.com the warmth recently
  broke a 142- year old record in Lexington,
  Kentucky.

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• Heres the key for trading natural gas

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• While the outlook is undeniably bearish right
  now, I wouldnt be short this commodity. The
  first hint of cold Eastern US temperatures and we
  could see a substantial short covering rally.

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• On the other hand, if temperatures remain warm in
  key usage regions we may see the commodity weaken
  even further.

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• Given the remarkably abundant inventories, its
  not out of the question for natural gas to seek
  out the 1995 low near 1.25 mmBtu.

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• Due to the weather uncertainty, the best course
  of action is to remain patiently on the sideline
  in natural gas.

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