The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report

1
Presents
THE GERA PUNE RESIDENTIAL REALTY REPORT
JULY 14 - JANUARY 15
2
Six Monthly Price Movements
PRICES The rate of price increase for 2014 has
dropped substantially over 2013. Half yearly rate
increases are now below inflation .The last 12
months have seen the slowest increase in rates of
only 5.3. This as compared to 14.1 and 14.8
over the two prior years.
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
3
Overall Supply Situation
SUPPLY Over the past 6 months, the gross stock
has reduced from 245,369 units to 240,433 a
reduction of 2.1 (indicating that the projects
were being launched slower than the rate of
completion). During the same period, the unsold
stock has increased from 66,350 units to 67,181
units an increase of 1.2. For the first time
in 3 years, the total number of projects has
reduced from 2761 in June 2014 to 2683 in
December 2014.
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
4
Inventory Situation
The unsold inventory in early stage projects has
risen from 41.4 in December 12 to 65.1 in
December 14. While the increase in the unsold
stock for the early stage projects is 22.35, the
increase in the overall unsold stock is 6.07.
Clearly consumers are being far more careful and
purchasing projects which are past the early
stage of progress.
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
5
Stock Sellout Analysis
On an average, the top 10 developers as per the
list have approx. 10 of the gross stock across
the market (the top 10 developers are
building/have built 10 of the total units under
construction in Pune). Unsold stock numbers are
consistently lower across all stages of work for
this subset of developers, indicating that these
developers are able to sell stock faster than the
rest of the market. Table below shows the sold
stock across various stages of work for the
entire market compared to the top 10 subset.
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
6
Supply and Unsold Stock Analysis
We decided to assess the market in terms of
supply and unsold stock based on the quoted rates
The table below shows the rates considered in
December 12, December 13 and December 14 for 5
categories of homes.
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
7
Unsold Stock Percentage
In general, the unsold stock percentage increases
as we moved towards the upper end of the pricing
spectrum , which stands to reason (Premium plus
and Luxury units have a longer inventory turnover
period compared to lesser priced units).
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
8
Value and Volume Analysis
Value and volume analysis The following chart
tracks the Total Value (in Crores) and the total
area (in square feet) of the Unsold Inventory
over the last 2 years .
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
9
Locations with Highest Inventory
Highest inventory The top 10 locations account
for more than half of the total unsold units in
Pune.
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
10
Top 20 Micromarkets
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
11
Micromarkets with Maximum Increase in Prices
The micro markets that have witnessed the maximum
increase in prices over the last 24 months are
listed below.
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
12
Micromarkets with Highest Price Gains
Micromarkets with Highest Price Gains in the last
two years
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
13
Bottom Ten Lowest Gainers
Bottom Ten Lowest Gainers (in the last 24 months)
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
14
Price Changes for Luxury Locations
We did an analysis of price changes for the
luxury locations of Model Colony, Aundh, Koregaon
Park Boat Club Road. The following are the
average prices in these markets over the last 24
months.
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15
15
Summary
The reduction in the base interest rates of
25 basis points while positive will not do much
to move the overall market. While the stock
market has already responded to the new
government and the changes that are taking place,
the real estate market has been far more
circumspect. The genuine home buyers have seen
difficult times with high interest rates as well
as high inflation and low salary increases and
this effect has led to home buyers taking a far
more cautious approach this time around.
The Gera Pune Residential Realty Report July
14-January 15