Business Inventories and Commodity Tips

1
Business Inventories and Commodity Tips
Gold Mcx Commodity is trading at 1307 and we
believe overall bearish trend which has been seen
for the past several months is in progress and we
recommend selling from higher levels. We had an
idea about 1355 as resistance levels for Comex
Gold though markets made a high of 1345 last
week and then declined so possibly the bearish
trend is again confirmed. Locally too, we are
shifting our strategy to sell whereas into
the different Gold contracts, we continue
to maintain our stance that Contango between
MCX Aug-Oct Gold may further narrow after
the FM refrained from cutting Import duty
in Budget. So traders can sellAug-Buy Oct
on pullbacks for short-term. Also a same
strategy can be followed between MCX/ACE Gold
wherein MCX would remain a sell though ACE Gold
Hedge a buy in very short-term Global Market
Analysis Our view on Bullion went wrong last
day. We were unable to judge the positive
development over EU-Portugal banks, Israels
progress whereas the US stocks rose to another
record. Comex gold crashed about 40 from
days high. Meanwhile, euro-zone IP number
coming in-line with estimates also pulled
markets lower. Asian markets are trading
positive this morning the USD index is trading
a bit down near 80.20.From the economic data
front today, we have the Zew survey from the GE,
EU and from the US we have empire manufacturing
index and retail sales . Silver Commodity we
had a similar outlook in silver commodity
as with gold yesterday wherein we maintained
moderate buying in the commodity. With our
bias in base metals too standing mostly
positive, we also advised traders to look for
selling the Gold/Silver Ratio for small profits
and hold for a day or two. Nevertheless, our view
there too went against us as silver
underperformed gold marginally and probably
traders might be sitting with some loss. As with
the fresh view now completely seen on the
different side, we advice those holding
Gold/Silver Ratio sell to exit with loss while in
intraday we recommend selling silver on pullbacks
both India and international markets. Traders
note that key event today for Bullion would be
Fed Chair, Janet Yellens testimony before the
Senate Banking Committee. Her comments over
interest rate, economy and inflation may infuse
high volatility in broader markets including
Bullion tonight. Commodity Tips SELL MENTHA OIL
MCX JUL BELOW 700 SL 710 TGT 690-681 SELL SILVER
MCX SEP BELOW 44980 SL 45200 TGT
44600-44300 Today Economic Data Indicators
DATE TIME Region Indicator Period Survey Prior
15.07.14 1130 JN Machine Tool Order YoY Jun F --- 34.2
15.07.14 1400 UK CPI MoM Jun 0.0 -0.1
15.07.14 1400 UK CPI YoY Jun 1.7 1.5
15.07.14 1400 UK CPI Core YoY Jun 1.8 1.6
15.07.14 1430 GE Zew Survey Current Situation Jul 67.9 67.7
15.07.14 1430 GE Zew Survey Expectations Jul 30.0 29.8
15.07.14 1430 EC Zew Survey Expectations Jul ---
15.07.14 1800 US Retail Sales Advance MoM Jun 0.6 0.3
15.07.14 1800 US Retail Sales Ex Auto MoM Jun 0.6 0.1
15.07.14 1800 US Retail Sales Ex Auto and Gas Jun 0.6 0.0
15.07.14 1800 US Empire Manufacturing Jul 17.0 19.3
15.07.14 1800 US Import Price Index MoM Jun 0.4 0.1
15.07.14 1800 US Import Price Index YoY Jun --- 0.4
15.07.14 1800 US Business Inventories May 0.6 0.6