Machine Orders YoY and Commodity Intraday Tips

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Machine Orders YoY and Commodity Intraday Tips
Crude Oil Commodity Intraday view if we
check the performance of oil in the US,
the DoE weekly inventory report and
anticipation of increase in demand was the
main driver behind price rise last week. The
DoE showed crude stocks for week ended 9th May
rose by 0.9 million barrels though product
inventories fell. Gasoline stocks declined
by 772,000 barrels whereas distillate stocks
slipped 1.1 million barrels despite the cut
in refineries output. Gasoline production
increased last week, averaging 9.6 million
barrels per day with the demand for the commodity
too showing moderate increase over last couple of
weeks. As also stated earlier, as we enter into
the summer driving season, which starts
from 26th May demand for the commodity
would continue to increase and likely to drive
oil prices higher. As of early Asian trade,
prices are trading marginally higher at the WTI
though in India we are seeing divergent view
as per the crude oil movement is
concerned. Rupee movement in domestic markets
has been the main driver for the commodity over
past couple of sessions and we feel the similar
stance is likely to hold in local markets for the
day. While the expiry of May month contract may
prompt shifting of volumes for the
commodity, overall we feel local oil prices
might continue to underperform the broad movement
in the commodity basket. Hence, we have a
distinct movement in Indian and NYMEX crude today
wherein we buy NYMEX and sell MCX oil Global
Market Analysis Asian markets have out of
the sun its gain this morning while the
overbought environment of Indian stock index
perchance may drag the local share prices lower
today in the intervening time Indian rupee
might also dark a morsel gain. The USD
index is trading well above 80 marks while the
euro and the pound are trading steady at 1.3710
and 1.6828 respectively. Coming to crude oil,
June futures are seen trading above 102 mark
while the Brent has advanced to 110. We are
seeing Brent rising in the recent past rapidly
possibly due to Libya tension while WTI grade is
managing higher. For the day we expect both the
oil
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grades may trade higher so we suggest
buying from lower levels. The WTI grade is
expiring today in the domestic market while the
same for June contract is expiring tomorrow.
However locally, backed by Rupee factor, oil
price are likely to continue underperform the
international benchmark wherein we would suggest
selling MCX oil for June contract. Economic data
- We do not have much of important data
today Natural Gas Commodity intraday look we had
a selling view in the commodity last day, prices
extended its broad declining trend after the
release of the weekly inventory tale. Nonetheless
on Thursday, despite higher than expected
increase in storage data by 105 BCF for the
week ended May 9 prices at NYMEX saw a strong
rebound probably a mark of short-covering after
big sell-off in prices during earlier part of the
day. Nevertheless, overall cues led by lower
demand and higher stocks addition continue to
prompt selling and we maintain our bearish view
in the commodity. Additional support on the
short side comes with the fact that CFTC data for
past week depicted hedge funds and money managers
cut their bullish bets in NG during the week
ending May 13. Net longs totalled 89,047
contracts, down 18.5 from net longs of
109,334 in the previous week showing moderate
reduction in bigger bullish bets for the
commodity. We are having a selling view in
intraday in NG while feel continue appreciation
in Rupee might further add to subdued trend in
India. Commodity Intraday Tips Sell Crude Oil
Mcx Jun on rise near 5975 sl 6015 Tgt 5925 Sell
Natural Gas Mcx May on rise near 262 sl 267 Tgt
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