TAJIKISTAN Energy Sector Situation Report

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TAJIKISTANEnergy Sector Situation Report

• A presentation by the World Bank to the Donor
  Coordination Council Meeting
• February 19, 2009
• Dushanbe, Tajikistan

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Nurek Water Reservoir Status Update
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Nurek Water Reservoir Water Level Now
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NWR Level Status

• NWR drawdown in Jan-Feb 2009 is slower than in
  Jan-Feb 2008

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NWR Withdrawal Rates Finally Stabilized While
Inflows Still Remain Low
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NWR Inflow Dynamics
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NWR Dead Zone Likely To Be Reached This Year
Mid-January modeling of NWR based on actual
operating mode shown that Dead volume of NWR
could be reached in the first half of March 2009
Operating mode from mid-January to mid-February
changed situation considerably and current
operation is close to mode that insure that Dead
volume would be reached only by the end of winter
season
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Electricity Supply Situation Update
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Electricity Imports Assured Early On
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TALCO Consumption of Electricity Reduced
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Gross Daily Supply Higher This Winter
Gross power supply (December 2008 to date) is
lower than planned(1) water inflow to NWR was
lower than multiyear average(2) thermal
generation was lower than planned, and (3)
absence of power import since the end-December
2008.
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Gas Supply Update
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Natural Gas Supply Reduced Early Feb 2009
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Reduction In Gas Imports Hurting All Consumers
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Ensure Fuel Oil Supply to Dushanbe CHPP
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BOTTOM LINE
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MUDDLE-THROUGH SITUATION REPEATS THIS YEAR

• Nurek Reservoir dead-zone mark is likely to be
  reached this year
• Water withdrawal rates are now maintained at
  13-17 centimeters per day, and 2.5 meters till
  the deadzone mark
• Lack of electricity imports since coupled with
  lower than expected thermal power generation
  contributed to the situation going from bad to
  worse.
• Barki Tajik has now deepened the power rationing
  schedule across the country (1-3 hours a day in
  all regions except GBAO and Dushanbe)
• Most parts of Dushanbe are receiving power only
  11 hours a day
• GBAO consumers are fed with 20-22 hours of power
  through Pamir Energy Company
• TALCO also reduced its consumption by 25
• Gas supplies are greatly reduced, due to a high
  level of arrears (circa 15M) to Uztransgas
• Dushanbe CHP is operating at circa 100 MW
• Weather seems to be Tajikistans best friend
  this winter, which is helping the population to
  cope with lack of electricity and heat

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THANK YOU!