Title: Jos Luis Cordeiro
1Energy Futures 2020
- José Luis Cordeiro
- Director, Venezuela Node
- The Millennium Project
- American Council for the United Nations University
2Qué nos depara el futuro energético?
- Celdas de combustible
- Economía del hidrógeno
- Secuestro del carbón
- Energía solar espacial
- Transmisión inalámbrica
- Envío por microondas
- BP (Beyond Petroleum)
- Muerte de la OPEP
- Protocolo de Kyoto (ambiente)
- Cambio tecnológico
- Sustitución energética
3Jeque Yamani, 2000Arabia Saudita
Millennium Project
- La Edad de Piedra se acabó y no por falta de
piedras, y la Edad del Petróleo se acabará pronto
y no por falta de petróleo.
4Millennium Project
Helsinki
Ottawa
Berlin
London
Calgary
Moscow
Paris
Prague
Seoul
Washington, DC
Silicon Valley
Rome
Tehran
Tokyo
Istanbul
Cairo
Mexico City
Beijing
Kuwait
Caracas
New Delhi
Cyber Node
Bogotá
Madurai
Sao Paulo
Lima
Sidney
Pretoria/Johannesburg
Buenos Aires
5Millennium Project
Millennium Project
is a TransInstitution (www.acunu.org)
6Millennium Project
7The 15 Global Challenges
Sustainable development
1
Sustainable development
Water
2
Water
Global ethics
15
Global ethics
3
Population
Population
4
Democracy
Science and technology
Democracy
14
Science and technology
Long-term policymaking
5
Long-term policymaking
Energy
13
Energy
Transnational organized crime
Information and communications
6
Information and communications
Transnational organized crime
12
Women
Market economy
7
11
Market economy
Women
Global security strategies
Global security strategies
10
8
Diseases
Diseases
Work and institutions
Work and institutions
9
8Energy Scenarios 2020 Study Flow
Millennium Project
Annotated Bibliography
Delphi- Round 1
IFs Model
PHASE 1
PHASE 2
Final Report
PHASE 3
Draft Scenarios
Delphi- Round 2
Final Scenarios
Delphi-
9Annotated Bibliography(85 pages)
- Summaries of important scenario studies
- Global Energy Scenarios to 2050 and Beyond, The
World Energy Council - World Energy Outlook 2004 and 2005, International
Energy Agency - International Energy Outlook 2005, Energy
Information Administration, US Department of
Energy - International Energy Outlook 2004, Energy
Information Administration, US Department of
Energy - Energy needs, choices and possibilities
scenarios to 2050, The Shell Scenarios - World energy, technology and climate policy
outlook 2030, European Commission. - Renewable Energy Scenario to 2040, European
Renewable Energy Council - Comparison of the Global Energy Studies
- Other Related Scenarios and Reports
10Four Assumed Scenarios
- 1. Business as usual. Global changes continue
without great surprises or much change in energy
patterns, other than those resulting from
dynamics and trends already in place - 2. Environmental backlash. The international
environmental movement becomes more organized and
violent, attacking fossil energy industries - 3. High tech economy. Technological innovations
accelerate beyond current expectations, and have
large scale impacts in the energy supply mix and
consumption patterns - 4. Political turmoil. Increasing political
instability and conflicts, relating to or
resulting from energy needs and capacities
11- 1. Business as Usual
- Moderate growth in technological breakthroughs
- Moderate environmental movement impacts
- Moderate economic growth
- Moderate changes in geo-politics and
war/peace/terrorism - 2. Environmental Backlash
- Moderate growth in technological breakthroughs
- High environmental movement impacts
- Moderate economic growth
- Moderate changes in geo-politics and
war/peace/terrorism - 3. High Tech Economy
- High growth in technological breakthroughs
- Low environmental movement impacts
- High economic growth
- Few changes in geo-politics and
war/peace/terrorism - 4. Political Turmoil
- Moderate growth in technological breakthroughs
- Low environmental movement impacts
- Moderate/low economic growth
12Example Shell scenarios for 2050
demographics urbanisation incomes
demand liberalisation
Innovation and competition
13Delphi Round 1(Results 145 written pages)
- Section 1. Developments that might affect future
energy conditions - Section 2. Global Energy Scenario Elements
- Section 3. Global Energy Sources
- Section 4. New suggestions and comments
14Demographics of the Delphi (round 1)
Total participants 131(not including the RT
Delphi)
Regional
Sectoral
15Demographics of the Scenarios (round 2)
Regional
Total participants 76
Sectoral
16Global Energy Scenario Elements (example)
17Comments on Comments
- Some 3,000 comments were received
- From energy experts around the world
- In all four sections with respect to all
scenarios - Led to more complete formation of the 4 final
scenarios
18Numeric Questions in Section 2
19More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed (for BAU)
20More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed (for
Environmental Backlash)
21More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed (for High
Tech)
22More Than 2/3 of Participants Agreed (for
Political Turmoil)
23Global Energy Sources
24.
25The IFs Model
- The International Futures (IFs), University of
Denver, was for additional quantitative scenario
data. - The models were produced for UNEP GEO Project and
for the National Intelligence Council, 2020
Project - Characteristics of the MP scenarios were used to
estimated exogenous energy efficiency. - Existing IFs scenarios were used where possible
- Five output variables computed
- Annual emissions from fossil fuels- billion tons
- Energy demand- bil barrels OE
- Energy price index, base 100 in 2000
- GDP per capita in PPP 95 dollars- thousand
dollars - Annual water usage- cubic km
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30- Scenario 1
- The SkepticBusiness As Usual (BAU)
311. The Skeptic
- The economy lurches, inflation flares
- The progress of technology is modest
- Decisions seem inadequate. Bad judgment, bad
luck, holding self-interests above societal
interests, amorality, timidity, and xenophobia
all trump over rationality - It is a good time for some and a bad one for
others, full of opportunities and broken
promises, a world of hope and despair - The public pulse 37 percent of the people say
they are better off today than in 2005, only 40
percent say things will be better in 2040
321. Demand for Energy Grows(particularly in China)
331. Despite Rising Prices
341. Result Inflation (USA and world)
351. Also Adding to Inflation
- Retirement rate is at a peak demand for
expensive services peak - Corporate retirement plans fail and require
government rescue - World population is up by about 25 since 2000
- Cost of weapons, wars, rebuilding, peacekeeping
has bled national treasuries deficits have
soared - Anti-terrorism vigilance is also very expensive
- Earthquakes, hurricanes, pandemic are all too
frequent
361. Plans for Reducing Imports
- President George W. Bush announced a plan to
lower US dependence on imported oil by 2025. But
it failed - The commitment to oil was too strong
- No one was convinced that the world had reached
Peak Oil - Another President proposed an Apollo-like plan
later - Like Kennedy We choose to solve the looming
energy crisis not because it is easy but because
to go on as we are will deny the world of our
children the best the future has to offer, will
keep the world on a path of depletion, a path
promising riches for some and poverty for many.
We choose to solve the energy question for the
long term and not accept short-term patches. We
choose to create our future and not simply let it
happen
371. Easy Efficiency Targets Were Harvested Then
the Gains Stopped
381. Chinas Big Export (Box)
- One million per year
- Electric or small IC engines
- Domestic and export focus
- Sedan Chairs (Box)
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401. The Importance of Ethanol
- Many sources waste, cellulose, corn, sugar cane,
palm oil, sweet sorghum, saw-grass, etc. - Agricultural polices throughout the world
adjusted to encourage this renewable supply - Genetic research into higher alcohol-producing
varieties. - Engine designs altered to accept fuel blends
- Brazil, Argentina, Australia, El Salvador,
Malaysia, Mexico, South Africa, Poland, India use
it more and more - The EU converted a major portion of its surplus
into fuels and introduced protective tariffs on
imported ethanol - European countries opposing genetic modification
Austria, France, Portugal, Greece and Denmark - With the emphasis on ethanol, world food supply
became imbalanced and hunger increased - Opportunistic terrorism in anti-ethanol organisms
411. The Skeptic (BAU)
- Yes, I am an skeptic
- Ive heard it all before
- Today there is too much pessimistic thinking
about energy - Reserves have grown in the past when depletion
was forecast - Now many people in the industry say it will
happen again - The 2020 World Cup is on TV so lets worry about
it tomorrow!
42- Scenario 2
- Environmental
- Backlash
432. Shell Sustainable Growth Scenario
Carbon sequestration
44Nuclear Power Reactors Along Indian Ocean
Source International Nuclear Safety Center
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482. Sun spots increasing
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50- Scenario 3
- High TechTechnology Pushes Off the Limits to
Growth
513. Technology pushes off the limits
- World economy reaches US 80 trillion
- Internet 4.0 connects over half of humanity,
which is growing stable at 7,5 billion people - Technological convergence accelerates
- NBIC Nano-Bio-Info-Cogno bloom
- Moores Law survives and thrives due to quantum
computing, 3D circuits and sub-atomic particles - Artificial intelligence reaches human
intelligence levels, and a technological
singularity is expected any time soon - Biological evolution, slow and erratic, is
overtaken by technological evolution, fast and
designed - Cyborgs and clones are becoming normal and
accepted in societies, and their numbers increase
faster than those of the naturals - Humans will never be the same, in fact, the first
transhumans and posthumans have already arrived - Advanced robotics and space exploration are ready
to take-off
523. Technological Convergence NBIC
Atoms
Cells
Bio
Nano
NBIC
Cogno
Info
Bits
Neurons
533. Ray Kurzweil (MIT)The Singularity is Near
- www.singularity.com
- Bill Gates
543. Limits to growth?
553. No limits to growth?
Herman KahnThe Next 200 Years
563. Oil costs and reserves
573. More oil costs and reserves
583. Deeper and deeper
593. Journey to the Center of the Earth
- JuiCE (Box)
- EU-Japan-US consortium
- Combined world effort
- Methane exploration
- Internal and continuous Earth production
- Deep drilling (30 km)
603. Energy waves decarbonization
613. Technology pushes off the limits
- 21st century energy drivers
- Technological change
- New discoveries
- Resource substitution
- The proper energy mix
- Old oil and new oil
- Gas and more gas
- Coal and less coal
- Renewables
- New energy sources
623. The economic problem EROEI
- Gasoline taxes
- Carbon taxes
- Fixed costs
- Sugar versus oil
- Market mechanisms
- Supply and demand
- Cost considerations
- Energy substitutes
- Policy incentives
633. Towards a Post-Petroleum World
British Petroleum Beyond Petroleum
643. The Energy Internet
- Buckminster Fuller
- Global Energy Network Institute
- GENI.org
653. Bioenergy and eternal energy
- The cells of life
- Photosynthesis
- CO2 2 H2O light
- ? (CH2O) O2 H2O
- From fossil hydrocarbons to live carbohydrates
- Craig Venter and his petroleum bacteria
- Bacteria Clostridium acetobutylicum produces
ethanol naturally - Bacteria Petroleum artificiali produces
gasoline
66Sheik Ahmed Yamani, 2000 Saudi Arabia
- The Stone Age did not end because of lack of
stones, and the Oil Age will end soon and not
because of lack of oil.
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683. Earth-based solar energy
6 land blocks of 3 TW are enough for humanity
today
693. Sun-Moon-Beam-Rectenna
703. Moon Energy 20 TWe
71NASA Space Solar Power (in stand-by)
2003-2005
2006-2010
2011-2015
2016-2020
2002
Complete Initial SSP Technology Research for
1-10 MW Class to Full-Scale Systems
SSP Concept definition complete
Technology Testbeds
Studies Proof-of-Concept Technology Research
(TRL 2-4)
Component-Level Proof-of-Concept experiments
Complete Initial RD for 1 MW to
Full-Scale SSP
Ground Test of SPG/WPT/Other Breadboards
Technology Research, Development and Test (TRL
4-5)
Ground Test very large deployable structures
Complete Initial RD for 1 MW to
Full-Scale SSP
High Power SEPS For Science Probes
High-Power GEO CommSats
High Efficiency Arrays for S/C
Dual-Purpose Applications RD (TRL 4-6)
MSC 3 10 MW-Class Flight Demo (TRL 7)
Lunar Power, Large SEPS
Large structures for large apertures solar sails
MSC 1 100 kW Class SSP flight demo
50 M Class flight expt. (incl SPG, ARD, dist.
control)
Technology Demos (TRL 6-7)
MSC 4 (2020)
Component-Level Flight Experiments
1 MW Class SSP advanced technology subsystem
flight demos (SPG/SEPS/WPT)
MSC 2 10-100 kW SSP planetary surface demo
LEGEND
RD Decision Point
Major RD Pgm Milestone
Strategic RT Road Map Objective
SSP Model System Concept(s)
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74- Scenario 4
- Political
- Turmoil
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774. La geopolítica del petróleoOPEP, Rusia, EUA,
China, Kyoto, Cuba
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794. Dónde están los terroristas?En Afganistán!
804. Armas de destrucción masiva
Se destruye con - -
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834. The world according to Bush
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88Muchas gracias! www.FuturoVenezuela.org www.Corde
iro.org