Systematic reasons for forecasting failures:

1
Systematic reasons for forecasting failures

• 1. We overestimate low probability events and
  underestimate high probability events.
• 2. We err on the side of recognizing dangerous
  patterns, since our ancestors who did not do so
  were not our ancestors. However, we are very poor
  at accurately assessing relative risks see
  above
• 3. The international system is very complex and
  in many ways, it is still changing very quickly.
  Van Crevelds Law Any military strategy that
  succeeds spectactularly will fail the next time
  it is used.
• 4. We have a difficult time anticipating
  reactions of people with different cultural
  experiences than our own. This is particularly
  problematic for intelligence agencies.

2
(No Transcript)
3
Factors that do not contribute to forecasting
failures

• Insufficient information -- in fact we have too
  much information
• Drinking from a fire hose
• The world is completely unpredictable -- in fact
  it is boringly regular.
• The odds favor the obviousTetlock

4
Philip Tetlock, Expert Political Judgment (2005)

• Data base 284 experts, 82,361 forecasts,
  1983-2003
• Expert forecasts are actually worse than chance
• Experts do not forecast better than an informed
  non-expert
• Experts frequently do worse in areas they
  specialize in because they get locked into pet
  theories
• Well-known experts are usually worse at
  predicting than less-known experts because they
  are encouraged to make novel predictions media
  pundits are terrible
• Liberals and conservatives are equally
  inaccurate extreme ideologues at both ends are
  less accurate
• Individuals who use a variety of information and
  models do better than individuals who focus on a
  single model

5
Examples of sensationalistic predictions that
fail to rise to the level of common sense

• Chinese nuclear power
• 40 years after testing a nuclear weapon, China
  has about 200 liquid-fueled ICBMs, a single
  nuclear submarine that is probably a submerge
  only craft, and 1950s-era bombers
• Like they are going to bomb Wal-Mart???
• Al-Qaedas global caliphate (Gen. Richard Meyers,
  Dole Center 2 May 07). Iraq features
• A Shia majority and semi-independent Kurdistan
• Shia Iran to the east
• Turkey with an intensely anti-religious military
  to the north
• Saudi Arabia, which has been fighting al-Qaeda
  for ten years, to the south
• Syria, which has a record of brutally suppressing
  Islamic militants (Hama 1982), to the west

6
How to gain a better understanding of
international affairs after you finish this class

• Learn a language in addition to English
• Leave the country now and again
• Read an internationally-oriented publication
  regularly
• and then...
• Rely on your own analysis of international
  affairs
• Footnote be extremely skeptical of anyone who
  claims to have secret information that
  contradicts your common sense. The "secret"
  source may have been
• Aldrich Ames (Soviet spy in CIA 1984-1994 CIA
  counterintelligence branch chief for Soviet
  operations, received 1.8-million)
• Robert Hanssen (Soviet spy in FBI 1983-2001,
  received 1.4-million)
• ????al-Qaedas spy hasnt been discovered yet

7
A Brief History of the 20th Century

• 1900-1914 System dominated by European
  colonialism
• 1914-1920 World War I Bolshevik Revolution
• 1920-1929 Continuation of 19th century
  development
• 1929-1938 Great Depression
• 1938-1948 Rise and fall of fascism World War
  II communism established in China, Eastern
  Europe
• 1948-1989 Cold War
• 1948-1965 Decolonization
• 1980-1989 Extensive localized international
  warfare
• 1990-?? Global economic expansion combined with
  an increase in non-state conflict

8
Current trends (1990-present)

• No clear ideological challenge to democracy and
  market systems
• However, the "clash of cultures" hypothesis is
  advocated by many in both the West and the
  Islamic world
• Extensive (though declining) internal warfare
  occasional state failures
• Increased involvement of international
  organizations in peacekeeping
• Complete USA hegemony in both quantity and
  quality of military capability
• However, the U.S. land forces are currently
  stressed by long-term deployments in Iraq,
  Afghanistan, Korea and Balkans

9
Four models for the future role of the United
States

• New Cold War
• Pax Americana
• Imperial overreach
• Neo-medievalism

10
New Cold War

• Historical model old Cold War,1950-1989
• Theoretical model realismcounter-balancing
  power
• Implementation China assumes role in 21st
  century comparable to that of USSR challenges US
  militarily and economically. Europe might serve
  as the third part of a tri-polar system
• Arguments against
• China is near historical territorial limits
  remaining issues involve conflict with Russia,
  not USA
• China seems content with economic relations with
  USA
• Not clear that China will have the domestic
  stability to do this

11
Pax Americana

• Historical model United Kingdom, 1750-1950
• Theoretical model Niall Ferguson, many
  neo-conservatives
• Implementation US uses military hegemony to
  impose a Pax Americana on entire system
• Arguments against
• Imperialism went out of style in the 1940s
• Iraq may be showing limits of US military power
  also there could be an isolationist backlash
  following Iraq
• US does not have economic hegemony to match the
  military hegemony in fact it may be increasingly
  vulnerable economically.
• Europe and China as potential counter-balances

12
Imperial Over-reach

• Historical model Spain, 1550-1650
• Theoretical model Paul Kennedy, many
  neo-isolationists
• Implementation US efforts to achieve Pax
  Americana lead to collapse of US influence,
  probably with China as the new hegemonic power
• Arguments against
• US has a strong domestic resource base and
  consequently is not dependent on the success of
  global military efforts
• Isolationist tendencies in US have tended to
  limit major over-seas commitments (see 2006
  election)
• Most hegemons have survived substantially longer
  than the US has before running into this
  problemUS hegemony may have a century more to go

13
How to wreck an empirePhilip II of Spain
(Reign 1556-1598 )

• Status of Spain in 1550
• Most effective (and most innovative) military in
  Europe
• Substantial gold and silver coming in from Mexico
  and Peru
• Strong centralized state inherited from Ferdinand
  and Isabella, Charles V
• Only global empire in Europe

14
Philip II Political Mistakes

• Links Spanish policy to the Counter-Reformation,
  converting traditional dynastic competition to a
  less flexible ideological competition
• Finances wars by borrowing
• Spain goes bankrupt three times
• Most of the wealth from the Americas ends up
  elsewhere in Europe, notably Germany
• Financial problems lead to loss of control of the
  military (who werent getting paid)
• Sack of Antwerp
• Fails the develop the global commercial networks
  of England, France, Netherlands
• Spain loses resources when bubonic plague closes
  gold and silver mines

15
Philip II Military mistakes

• Spanish Armada 1588
• Most powerful naval fleet in history (including
  China). Intended as prelude to Catholic invasion
  of England in support of Counter-Reformation
• Loose coalition of small English and Dutch ships
  out-manuver large Spanish shipsthink Rebellion
  vs. Death Starand use sneaky tactics like fire
  ships
• Weather does the rest Spanish navy never
  recovers
• Numerous continental expensive and inconclusive
  wars against France and Germany
• France, in an early counter-example to Clash of
  Civilizations, allies with the Ottoman Empire to
  counter Spain
• Long and vicious war against Dutch insurgency
  Dutch eventually gain de facto independence in
  1609 formal independence in 1648

16
Philip II End results

• In 1621 the Dutch formed the Dutch West India
  Companya militarized non-state actor and in
  1628 sent a fleet of over 30 ships into the
  Caribbean under pirate Admiral Piet Heyn which
  captured the entire Spanish treasure fleet,
  including 90 tons of gold.
• Spain loses most colonial possessions in 1820s
• Arguably, Spain does not recover significant
  influence in Europe until 1990s

17
Neo-medieval

• Historical model Europe 400-1600 CE
• Theoretical model Clash of Civilizations,
  business pacifism plus post-sovereignty
• Implementation Sovereign power of the US is
  challenged not by rival states but by militarized
  non-state actors and economically powerful
  non-state actors such as multinational
  corporations
• Arguments against
• Sovereign states are still the dominant actors
  militarily and economically
• Prior experience with terrorist groups argues
  against the long-term stability of MNSAs
• US retains significant influence in economic NSAs
• European medieval system was marginal and
  isolated not clear that a similar thing could
  occur in a globalized system

18
Questions for the United States

• What is the core foreign policy?
• Hegemony ("unilateralism") -- maintain the US as
  the sole superpower
• Classical balance of power -- anticipate a
  multipolar system with Europe, China and several
  regional powers such as India, Iran, Nigeria,
  Brazil
• Liberal internationalism -- primary focus of
  military will be multilateral peacekeeping
• "Isolationism" -- focus primarily on Caribbean
  and Central America

19
Agents of Change Increased communication and
trade

• development of a global culture
• "747 effect" anyone can go anywhere with
  anything
• "CNN effect" any event anywhere can potentially
  affect the system
• military technology is now global

20
Agents of Change Economic development

• Decolonization period has ended
• 1-billion people joined the middle class in
  1995-2005
• International trade has increased dramatically
• international organizations, particularly
  economic (IMF) and regional (EU), have greater
  power

21
Agents of Change Democratization

• Democratic, as opposed to aristocratic, norms are
  nearly universal.
• Liberal democratic norms (competitive elections)
  are becoming so, as the ruling parties in several
  major single party democracies have lost power
• Japan and Mexico most notably
• Democracy may be associated with peace and wealth

22
Conspicuous Challenges to the Nation-State
Ethno-nationalism

• Advantages
• The basic concept of the Westphalian nation-state
  is ethno-nationalistic
• Easily mobilized with modern communication
• With economic integration, small states are at
  less of a disadvantage than in the past
• Global availability of military technology
• Can possibly resolve borders established in
  colonial period
• Examples Eritria, East Timor, Slovakia/Czech
  Republic
• Further cases Scotland, Catalonia, Flanders?

23
Conspicuous Challenges to the Nation-State
Ethno-nationalism

• Disadvantages
• Multi-cultural states are often highly successful
• Multiculturalism can provide significant trade
  advantages
• Civil war is tremendously damaging to development
  and international status
• This goes against globalization of culture

24
Conspicuous Challenges to the Nation-State
Religion

• Advantages
• Oldest and most stable form of political
  organization
• Frequently provides significant social services
• Tends to be closely associated with "national"
  culture
• Provides traditional values in a period of rapid
  change

25
Conspicuous Challenges to the Nation-State
Religion

• Disadvantages
• Goes against globalization of culture
• Traditional institutions may not provide modern
  services efficiently
• Tends to fragment easily on theological issues
• Difficult to translate many religious ideals into
  a practical political system

26
Other Challenges to the Nation-State

• Economic interdependence
• Global culture
• Supranational organizations
• Successful multi-cultural states
• Human rights challenges to sovereignty
• Declining utility of territorial war

27
Factors reinforcing the Nation-State

• Increased awareness of ethnic identity because of
  challenge of global culture.
• Developed economies require greater government
  involvement in providing local services
• Democratization increases the sense of citizen
  identity with the state
• History and culture

28
Is the World Becoming More Democratic?

• Factors favoring
• Democracy is now generally treated as the ideal
  -- even non-democratic states generally claim to
  be democratic (religiously-based conservative
  states are the primary exception)
• Quite a large number of non-democratic regimes
  have been replaced by democratic regimes since
  the 1980s
• End of the Cold War has ended the justification
  for democratic states supporting authoritarian
  states
• End of communism as a major power ideology has
  ended the attractiveness of this

29
Is the World Becoming More Democratic?

• Factors favoring
• Liberal democracy has been successful in several
  non-Western polities (e.g. India, Korea, Senegal)
  
• Market-based economic development has generally
  favors the development of a managerial
  middle-class that provides both the means and the
  support for democracy
• Authoritarian regimes have generally proven far
  less effective than democratic regimes in
  promoting economic development. Contrary to myth,
  authoritarian regimes don't "make the trains run
  on time"
• Democracies don't fight each other and are more
  likely to win wars against non-democracies

30
Is the World Becoming More Democratic?

• Factors opposing
• Globalization often favors concentration of power
  in existing elites. Global economic institutions
  have not tended to make democratization a
  priority and may actively undermine it (e.g. IMF
  structural adjustment programs)
• Middle class in many states is still very small
• Cold War institutions (e.g. secret police,
  military) designed to support authoritarian
  regimes may be difficult to dismantle even in the
  absence of external support (Russia)
• Some elements of democratic states (e.g. illegal
  drug use, breakdown of traditional moral and
  ethical standards) are not attractive
• Conservative religious movements may present a
  credible alternatives, particularly when these
  accommodate market economic systems (e.g. Islam,
  Protestant Christianity)

31
Challenges to the Realist Model

• Do states actually maximize "power"?
• why didn't the USA insist on control of Canadaor
  at least Albertain exchange for helping Britain
  in WWI WWII? Why doesnt the US capture Mexican
  oil platforms?
• How much control does the state have on economic
  power? Does realism provide a useful theory for
  economic diplomacy?
• Is the concept of a unitary actor valid in a
  democratic and bureaucratic political culture?
• Is the international system anarchic, or do an
  assortment of international rules and norms
  actually provide quite a bit of order?
• Does the realist emphasis on conventional war
  weaken the theory in an era where war between
  major powers is very infrequent?

32
Open Questions on the Issue of War

• Has economic development reached a point where
  the Manchester thesis actually works?
• Are there any circumstances under which
  democracies will fight each other?
• Will the Cold War system of stable nuclear
  deterrence work in other dyads?
• Will the decentralization of military power lead
  to the continual fragmentation of nation-states,
  or are there a finite number of ethnic disputes
  to be resolved?
• as of 2002 Has the USA developed a highly
  effective method of warfare that guarantees very
  low US casualties and near certain victory or has
  it just been lucky so far?

33
Questions for the international economic system

• Future of WTO and the liberal trading model
• Agricultural subsidies
• Can the physical environment survive 1-billion
  people entering the middle class?
• Are multinational corporations an efficient means
  of organizing international enterprise, or are
  they temporary?
• How does one get development going in countries
  which have been decolonized for a substantial
  period of time but not entered the NIC phase? Is
  there an alternative to export-oriented
  development?

34
Questions for the international economic system

• What is the best way to manage the transition
  from communism to market economics
• Are the IMF and World Bank part of the solution
  or part of the problem (e.g. Stiglitz)
• What will be the effects of the increased flow of
  investment from developed countries to NICs?
• Is there another potential OPEC in some commodity?

35
Questions for the United States

• Future of the military as of Spring 2001
• How much can the military budget be reduced from
  Cold War levels? Where are the threats what sort
  of military and intelligence capabilities are
  required?
• What are the trade-offs between maintaining
  overwhelming US military superiority versus
  encouraging other states and IGOs to develop
  capabilities that the US doesn't need to be
  involved in every international crisis?
• What level of military casualties will the
  electorate tolerate? Are the advantages of the
  electronic "revolution in military affairs" --
  zero casualties in the Kosovo war -- permanent or
  temporary?

36
Questions for the United States

• Future of the military as of Fall 2005
• Is the war on terrorism really a war or would a
  police approach be more effective, or will be
  just burn out
• How long with the United States continue to have
  significant numbers of troops in Iraq, and under
  what circumstances will it leave? Will there be
  an Iraq syndrome inhibiting the use of US
  troops for some time?
• Do either Europe or China pose a significant
  challenge to the US hegemony?

37
Questions for the United States

• International Economic Issues
• After NAFTA, what?
• Latin America
• Pacific Rim
• Europe
• none of the above, and maybe not NAFTA either
• To what extent is US economic prosperity
  dependent on international factors?
• Inexpensive imported consumer products
  (Walmart)
• International capital attracted by the
  stability of the dollar and the US economy (but
  will this continue indefinitely??)
• Energy imports
• Will these factors change significantly as
  economic development increases elsewhere in the
  world?