Adapting to Climate Change

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Adapting to Climate Change Environmental
Pressures Adaptation of Public Policy

• Nancy Olewiler
• Public Policy Program
• Simon Fraser University
• Taming that Monster Under the Bed Exploring
  Critical Relationships between Supply Chains and
  the Environment
• June 10, 2008

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Is nature becoming more volatile?
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Role of changing climate risk

• Small changes in mean or extremes can yield large
  changes in risk
• Infrastructure sensitive to
• Rate of climate change
• Changes in mean climate (weathering)
• Changes in extremes (thresholds/failure)
• Adaptive capacity (ability to plan, respond,
  design, maintain)
• Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide T.
  Peterson for the graphics

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Impacts of climate change magnified by

• Larger population population density size of
  the economy
• Building in high risk areas (flood plains)
• Lack of awareness, access to information, and
  understanding of climate impacts
• Too much insurance, sense of entitlement
• Regulatory, legislative barriers
• Lack of tools or willingness to integrate
  knowledge with actions, BAU thinking
• Interest group pressures

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Supply chain vulnerabilities to climate change

• Transportation infrastructure roads, rail lines,
  ports damage from sea-level rise, erosion,
  flooding, land slides, and temperature extremes
  affecting road surfaces
• Changes in productivity from natural resource
  sectors forests, agriculture, mining due to
  temperature and precipitation (too much/too
  little) shorter ice road and drilling seasons, ?
  agricultural yields, pine beetle devastation
• Fires impeding transportation, destroying
  infrastructure and communities

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Infrastructure life climate impacts coincide

• Long life high value of Canadian capital stock
• How to avoid costly retrofits or replacement of
  infrastructure?
• Think about what type of investment now
• (From IPCC 2007, WG2-Chapter 15slide from L.
  Mortsch)

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Is the path forward clear?

• Risk models need to change cannot extrapolate
  from past experience (MunichRe)
• We need to better understand the compounding
  roles of increasing vulnerability and climate
  change (Mills, 2005 (Science))
• More people in harms way vs. ongoing societal
  responses that should have compensated for this
  (Kunkel et al., 1999, BAMS)

• There is no scientific basis for claims that
  escalating disaster costs is the result of
  anything other than increasing societal
  vulnerability (Pielke Jr., 2005 (Science))
• Society makes the assumption that technology and
  management can control nature and protect people
  (Mileti, 1999 Disasters by Design)

Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide quotes.
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Issues and questions that arise from the data and
projections

• How will the climate change?
• Do we have useful climate models or scenarios?
• Are weather predictions warnings adequate?
• How will changing climate affect my community
  city, province, country?
• Is disaster planning management adequate?
• Do our land uses, infrastructure maintenance and
  development take into account climate change?
• Do we have the expertise and capacity (human and
  financial) to address climate change?
• What is the role responsibility of government
  vs. private sector vs. people?

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Challenges reasons to do nothing!

• Ill deal with climate change when I see it
  happening isnt it good for Canada to be
  warmer!
• Ill deal with climate change when you can tell
  me exactly what I need to plan for
• I dont think global warming/climate change will
  affect my community

• Ill wait until I see other communities
  preparing for climate change
• I dont have time or money or information to
  deal with climate change right now
• I dont have enough authority to plan for
  climate change

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Challenges confusion between mitigation and
adaptation

• Shouldnt public policy focus on reducing GHG
  emissions (mitigation) rather than on adaptation
  to climate change?
• Does this mean we give up and simply respond to
  whatever climate does to us?

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Ways to address the challenges

• First, find a name for what you are doing

Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the cartoon
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A framework to link Adaptation (A) Mitigation
(M) Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the diagram
A
Vulnerability reduced
AMSD Drought preparedness through demand side
management expanded application of recycling and
conservation principles
adaptive emissions Expanded use of air
conditioners, aquaculture and sea walls
M
Emissions increased
Emissions reduced
Forest plantations for carbon sequestration
expansion of large hydro development new
vulnerabilities
Rapid deforestation for land use change
(agriculture, mining, etc.)
unsustainable
Vulnerability increased
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What is needed to address adaptation problems

• Pull together resources (human, ) using a
  interdisciplinary team approach that includes
• Best available science
• Best available engineering and technology and
  planning
• Economic and business acumen to ensure we weigh
  costs benefits achieve targets at minimum
  cost
• Determination of the vulnerabilities personal,
  business, community risk assessment vital
• Leaders who look beyond the next election cycle
• An informed and engaged public
• Partnerships with other jurisdictions/organization
  s

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Ways to avoid paralysis

• Start analysis of local vulnerabilities because
• Many policy levers already exist, e.g.
• Zoning land use
• Infrastructure maintenance investment
• Coincide with energy efficiency, GHG mitigation
• Education and buy in of community is easier when
  make concrete link to local impacts
• Likely minimizes costs of achieving targets
  because will be closer link between problem
  solution (one size does not fit all)
• Look for partners who can help

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A framework for action

• Define the problems you can tackle
• Due diligence
• Information on best practices/outcomes
• Design policy options in consultation with
  experts, community, business, and other
  stakeholders
• Evaluate options against criteria using best
  available information
• Implement options with monitoring of their
  performance

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Best practices
Thanks to Stewart Cohen for the slide
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Example of best practices

• King County, Washington Preparing for Climate
  Change A Guidebook for Local, Regional, and
  State Governments
• By Center for Science in the Earth System (The
  Climate Impacts Group), Joint Institute for the
  Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean, University of
  Washington King County, Washington
• A pragmatic step-by-step guide for local
  regional governments

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King County suggested steps

• Scope the Climate Change Impacts to Your Major
  Sectors
• Collect and Review Important Climate Information
• How is Climate Expected to Change in Your Region?
  
• What are the Projected Impacts of Climate Change
  in Your Region?
• Build and Maintain Support to Prepare for Climate
  Change
• Identify or Cultivate a Champion for
  Preparedness
• Identify and Understand Your Audience for
  Outreach
• Develop a Preparedness Message
• Spread the Message
• Build Your Climate Change Preparedness Team
• How to Select Members and a leader for Your Team
• Prepare the Teams Agenda
• Conduct a Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment
• Review and Supplement Important Climate
  Information
• Conduct Your Climate Sensitivity Analysis
• Evaluate Adaptive Capacity for Systems in Your
  Planning Areas

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King County steps continued

• Conduct a Climate Change Risk Assessment
• Assess Your Climate Change Risks
• Establish Your List of Priority Planning Areas
• Set Preparedness Goals and Develop Your
  Preparedness Plan
• Establish a Vision and Guiding Principles for a
  Climate Resilient Community along with
  Preparedness Goals
• Identify Potential Preparedness Actions
• Assess your Actions against Criteria
  (effectiveness, efficiency, robustness under
  scenarios, equity, precautionary principle,
  flexibility)
• Select and Prioritize Preparedness Actions
• Implement Your Preparedness Plan
• Ensure that You Have the Right Implementation
  Tools
• Manage Uncertainty and Risk
• Measure Your Progress, Review your Assumptions,
  and Update Your Plan

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Illustration of template for risk policy
analysis
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Canadian initiatives planning

• Westbank, BC has included climate change in their
  Landscape Unit Water Management Plan
• The town of Vanderhoof, BC is engaged in a
  vulnerability assessment pilot project
• Albertas Water for Life Strategy addresses
  climate change impacts in areas that are
  currently water-stressed
• British Columbias Future Forests Ecosystem
  Initiative incorporates climate change adaptation
  into forest management.
• Research and networking have been supported
  through a range of federal, provincial and
  territorial programs.
• MORE TALK THAN ACTION..

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City of Richmond -Climate Change Response
Thanks to Margot Daykin for the slide
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Thanks to Margot Daykin for the slide
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Canadian initiatives policies

• Municipalities along the Quebec eastern North
  Shore have introduced regulations to limit
  development in zones vulnerable to coastal
  erosion and flooding.
• Greater use of water meters to reduce water
  consumption in cities irrigation districts
  (e.g., Kelowna, Sudbury, Moncton, BCs WaterSmart
  plan
• Smog and heat-health warning systems have been
  implemented in Toronto and Montréal.
• New Brunswicks Coastal Areas Protection Policy
  establishes set-backs for permanent structures.

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Example Manitoba Actions

• Red River Floodway expanded from 1 in 90 to 1 in
  700 year flood
• Integrated Watershed Management Planning
• Northern Winter Roads, relocated from ice
  crossings to land for safety and sustainability
• East Side Lake Winnipeg Land Planning,
  traditional knowledge to inform adaptive decision
  making
• Emergency Measures Office, municipal emergency
  management plans
• Provincial Land Use Planning Policies updated to
  include provisions for adaptation

Thanks to Neil Cunningham for the slide
information.
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• Manitoba Overland flood protection
• Existing Upgraded to 1 in 700 yr.

Blue (Surface and overland), Brown (Basement and
sewer)
Thanks to Neil Cunningham for the slide
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Climate adaptation policy lessons learnedso far

• Establish integrative office with representation
  from across ministries/agencies (with funding and
  powers and education role within bureaucracy
  and outreach)
• Need to strengthen capacity in all related
  agencies
• Strategic planning early action vital to
  minimize costs
• Early continued public and business engagement
  with local jurisdictions to help set priorities
  shared governance better than top down decrees
  partnerships important

• Articulate limitations to stakeholders so dont
  ramp up expectations
• Look for synergies with development activities
  build better smarter
• Tough to get attention due to competing demands
  for time
• Decision making is complex (at any level) e.g.,
  inconsistent policy and regulations
• Need long-term planning, not one-off projects
  attach to a sustainability plan
• Establish liability for poor planning
  accountability framework for public and private
  entities

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For information on ACT email adapt_at_sfu.ca
Photos from Don Haley Natural Resources Canada