Curriculum Advanced Institute The Asian Monsoon System: Prediction of Change and Variability

1
Curriculum Advanced Institute The Asian
Monsoon System Prediction of Change and
Variability
East-West Center, University of Hawaii Honolulu,
January 2nd to 11th 2008

• Welcome to Aloha State
• Happy New Year!

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Objective

• To bring together 20 early career researchers
  (Ph.D. or Ph.D. candidate) or practitioners from
  monsoon Asia region and senior scientists from
  IPRC and elsewhere to
• Review advances in understanding of climate
  variability and predictability of the AAM system
• Identify relationships between Global
  Environmental Change and the Asia-Pacific
  regional climate, including the impacts of land
  surface degradation, changes in the hydrological
  cycle
• Initiate a longer-term collaborative effort to
  review and assess various modeling schemes and
  outputs with regard to future climate changes in
  the AAM region
• Contribute to international data networking
  through contributions to and use of the Pacific
  Data Research Center
• Contribute to CLIVAR/WCRP and the Monsoon Asia
  Integrated Studies effort and AMY (07-11)

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Format

• The advanced institute will be conducted over a 2
  week period at the IPRC.
• The schedule will include 31 lectures, 18
  research seminars, 2 hinds-on practices, and 7
  discussion sessions. Highly interactive!
• IPRC scientists and other invited senior
  scientists will help conduct the institute and
  foster longer-term collaborative partnerships

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Faculty

• Invited Faculty
• Kang, In-Sik (Korea), Kitoh, Akio (Japan),
  Kripalani, R. H. (India), Park, C.-K./Ashok,K.
  (APCC), Waliser, Duane (USA), Xue, Yongkang
  (USA), Zhou, Tian-Jun (China)
• IPRC Faculty
• H. Anamalai, X. Fu, P. Hacker, J.-Y. Lee, T. Li,
  J. McCreary, J. Potemra,   B. Wang,

5
Topics/Instructors

• 1. Annual cycle and weather systems
  (Wang/Annamala)
• 2. Intraseasonal variability and predictability
  (Waliser/Fu)
• 3. Interannual variations and ENSO-monsoon
  relation (Zhou/L)
• 4. Interdecadal variation and historical record
  (Kripalani)
• 5. Variability of SST and oceans roles
  (McCreary/Potemra)
• 6. Asian monsoon in the future and monsoon
  impacts (Kitoh)
• 7. Atmosphere- land interaction and water cycle
  (Xue)
• 8. Modeling, predictability and prediction
  (Kang/Lee)
• 9. Introduction to Pacific Data Center and other
  data sources
• (Potemra)
• 10. Introduction to APEC Climate Center (Ashok)

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Monsoon Institute Website

• http//www.start.org/Monsoon2008/home.html
• References, Class notes/presentation etc.
• Acknowledgement
• Sandra Stowe

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Asian Monsoon Years (AMY 2007-2011)
http//mahasri.cr.chiba-u.ac.jp/
A cross-cutting initiative of coordinated
observation and modeling efforts in
Asian-Australian Monsoon System A major
component of the International Monsoon Study
under the leadership of WCRP.
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Programmatic Development

• AMY stems from grass-root scientific and societal
  imperatives Initiated in August 2006, Xining
  meeting.
• Strongly supported by GEWEX and CLIVAR
• GEWEX/MAHASRI workshop, Jan. 8 2007, Tokyo
• GEWEX SSG, Jan. 22/25 2007, Honolulu
• CLIVAR/AAMP, Feb 19/21 2007, Honolulu
• Endorsed by WCRP/JSC on 28th JSC meeting,
• Mar. 26-30 2007 Zanzibar, Tanzania
• Identified as a cross-cutting weather and climate
  activity by WMO/WWRP/Monsoon panel.
• 1st AMY meeting, Apr. 23-25 2007, Beijing
• Established SSC, working group, IPO
• 2nd AMY meeting, Sept 3-4 2007, Bali, Indonesia
• Science plan
• 3rd AMY meeting, January 20-21 2008
• Implementation plan

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28th session of JSC WCRP Zanzibar 26-30 March
2007

• Endorsed the concept of the AMY and the
  International Monsoon Study (IMS) as a major
  initiative to promote broad-based climate
  research for the monsoon systems of the world.
• The AMY initiative was visualized as
• a coordinated national and international
  observation and modeling activity to better
  understand the ocean-land-atmosphere interaction
  and aerosol-cloud-radiation-monsoon interaction
  of the Asian monsoon system, for improving
  monsoon prediction.

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AMY Participants (1)19 National/Regional
Projects/13 countries

• JAPAN JAMSTEC/IORGC, JAMSTEC/FRCGC, JEPP,
  PRAISE, ARCS-Asia,
• CHINA AIPO, SCHeRex, TORP, SACOL, NPOIMS
• Chinese Taipei SoWMEX
• INDIA STORM, CTCZ, IIMX/Rain, CAIPEX
• USA- JAMEX, SMART-COMMIT, TiMREX
• Korea-Japan PHONE08
• Thailand Malaysia Vietnam Indonesia
  Philippines Bangaladesh, Nepal Mongolia

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AMY Participants (2) International
Projects/Panels

• GEWEX- MAHASRI
• GEWEX-CEOP
• CLIVAR- AMMP
• CLIVAR-IOP
• CLIVAR-PP
• ESSP-MAIRS
• WWRP/TMRP- TCS08
• THOPEX- TPARC

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(No Transcript)
13
Classification of Projects
Plus other National International contributions
14
AMY Organization

• Scientific Steering Committee
• Co-Chair B Wang, J Matsumoto
• Members GX Wu, T Yasunari, T Koike, D.R. Sikka,
  
• S. Gadgil, TD Yao, CB Fu, RH Zhang, YH Ding
• W KM Lau, CP Chang, J Shukla,
• International Program Office JP Li
• Working groups
• Observation MD Yamanaka, DX Wang
• Data management K Masuda, GQ Zhou
• Modeling and prediction HH Hendon, T. Satomura

15
Science background

• Observation and process studies
• Diurnal cycle, Annual cycle, high-impact
  weather, ISV, IAV, IDV, Warm ocean processes,
  Tibetan Plateau
• Numerical modeling and prediction
• Diurnal and annual cycles, modeling and
  prediction of ISV, Seasonal prediction,
  high-resolution modeling
• Monsoon environment and future change
• Impacts of aerosols, Assessment of future
  changes, human activity and changing environment

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Cross-cutting Science Themes

• Multi-scale interaction from diurnal to
  intraseasoanl
• Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Cryosphere-Biosphere
  interaction
• Aerosol-Cloud-Monsoon interaction

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Overarching Science Questions

• What are fundamental causes and how predictable
  are the Asian monsoon Intraseasonal, interannual,
  and interdecadal variabilities?
• How do atmosphere-land interaction,
  atmosphere-warm ocean interaction, and Tibetan
  Plateau process affect monsoon seasonal
  prediction?
• What are the impacts of absorbing and scattering
  aerosols on the monsoon water cycle? Do aerosols
  weaken or strengthen Asian monsoon?
• How will the Asian monsoon system change in a
  global warming environment and under human
  transformation of land, water and air?

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AMY Goal

• To improve Asian monsoon prediction for
  societal benefits through improving understanding
  of the variability and predictability of the
  Asian-Australian monsoon system
• To promote applications in order to support
  strategies for sustainable development.
• It is believed that coordination and
  cooperation of individual participating and
  partner projects will greatly facilitate the
  efforts to reach this goal.

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Specific Objectives

• to better understand the ocean-land-atmosphere-bio
  sphere interaction, multi-scale interactions,
  aerosol-monsoon interaction, human-environment
  interaction in the Asian monsoon system.
• to improve the representations of these
  interactions in the coupled climate models, and
  to develop data assimilation of the
  ocean-atmosphere-land system in the Asian monsoon
  region.
• to determine predictability of the Asian monsoon
  on intraseasonal to interannual time scales, in
  particular the role of land processes in
  continental rainfall prediction.