Sustainability, The Great Debates and the Engineer

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Sustainability, The Great Debates and the Engineer

• Sophomore Clinic Lecture
• 5 February 2001
• Peter Mark Jansson PP PE MScEng
• Institute for Manufacturing - Cambridge Centre
  for Sustainable Enterprise
• Department of Engineering - University of
  Cambridge

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Aims

• A Background on Sustainable Development
• Broaden Understanding of the Primary Debates
  Surrounding Exploitation of Natural Capital
• Understand the Increasingly Important Role the
  Environment Plays in Sustainable Enterprise
• Review A Few Case Studies of Progressive
  Organisations Building Competitive Advantage
• Have Fun

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What is Sustainable Development?

• Development that provides economic, social and
  environmental benefits in the long term, having
  regard to the needs of living and future
  generations.
  
• Defined by Brundtland Commisssion - WORLD
  COMMISION ON ENVIRONMENT AND DEVELOPMENT, 1987

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Why Is It an Issue?

• Climate Talks Fail to Close Rift With US
• The Guardian 20 Nov 2000 -
• US Highlights Growing Global Warming Danger
• The TIMES 17 Mar 2000 -
• UK Unveils Tough Climate Change Targets
• The TIMES 10 Mar 2000 -
• Govt May Regulate Company Data on Environment -
  The TIMES 3 Mar 2000 -

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HEADLINES Continued

• National Research Council in US Finds Global
  Warming is Undoubtedly Real - 14 Jan 2000
• Experts Warn Of Ozone Hole Over Qingha-Tibet
  Plateau, China - 12 Aug 99
• Global Warming Advances Spring
• The TIMES 25 Feb 1999 -
• Europe Faces Ice Age as World Warms
• The TIMES 17 Jan 1999 -

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The Search for Factual Information

• News Media
• Governmental Agencies
• Special Interest Groups
• Academic Experts
• Industry Experts

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UK Department of Trade and Industry, LINK EPSRC

• 20 Nov 2000 Sustainable Tech. Init. Launch
• The central challenge of sustainable development
  is decoupling the link between economic growth
  and its unsustainable impact on the environment
  and people. Science and technology have critical
  roles to play in turning this threat into a
  strategic opportunity for the UK
• Lord Sainsbury, UK - Minister of Science

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Quotable Quotes

• The pursuit of Sustainable Development is not an
  option - it is nothing more or less than a
  necessity for our economic survival Sir
  Iain Vallance - BT Chairman
• Sustainable Development is a widely accepted
  unifying concept for policymaking and the major
  new business challenge for the next century
  Dr. Colin Hicks - Director, Environment
  Directorate DTI
• The sustainability agenda is developing faster
  than any other part of the business agenda
  Livio Desimone - Chairman 3M
• We are about to go through a sustainability
  revolution which will rival the agricultural and
  industrial revolutions in its impact on society
  John Battle - DTI Minister of State

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An Important Distinction

• Development
• application of resources human, physical,
  natural and financial to meet effective and
  prospective market and human needs. (improved
  quality not nec. quantity)
• Growth
• an increase in size or quantity by the accretion
  or assimilation of materials.

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Key Issues of Sustainability

• Are There Limits to Growth? Resource Constraints
  vs. Substitution, Catastrophe vs. Expanding
  Horizons with Technology, Population Constraints,
  
• The Limits of Natural Capital
• Atmospheric CO2, Global Warming via Greenhouse
  Gases, Ozone Depletion
• Land Farming vs. Housing and Urbanization,
  Fertitility, Biodiversity
• Water Runoff, Pollution,
• Resource Limits Oil, Food, Minerals, Water

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Some Important Concepts

• Exponential Growth
• Natural Capital
• Atmosphere
• The Oceans Hydrosphere
• Forests, Land Use, Resources Lithosphere
• Global Biosphere 3 Symbiotically Integrated
• Sustainable Levels/Rates

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Doubling Times with Exponential Growth
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Exponential Growth

• A QUIZ SHOW Illustration Folding a piece of
  paper in half 40 times will create a thickness of
  paper that is
• A) 1-12 inches thick
• B) 1-10 feet thick
• C) Between 10 feet and 1 mile
• D) Other

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Examples of Exponential Growth

• World Population
• World Industrial Production
• Atmospheric CO2 Concentration

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Recent Growth Rates 1970-1990

• Global Human Population 2.0
• Number of Automobiles 4.1
• Use of Petroleum 1.7
• Coal Consumption 4.2
• Electric Generation Capacity 4.4
• Aluminum Used for Cans US 15.3
• Generation of Rubbish OECD 1.7

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The Biosphere -Earths Natural Capital

• The integrated natural functioning atmosphere,
  lithosphere and hydrosphere working in cyclical
  patterns to sustain life on Earth. This includes
  the plant, animal and human species as well which
  all play a role at times in concert with and
  opposition to the apparently natural, sustainable
  cycles and rhythms.

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Sustainable Levels/Rates for

• Renewable Resources (soil, water, forests, food,
  etc.) can be no greater than the rate of
  regeneration by the Biosphere
• Non-Renewable Resources can be no greater than
  the rate at which renewable resources can be
  substituted for them
• Pollutants no greater emission than the rate at
  which pollutant can be recycled, absorbed or
  rendered harmless by the Biosphere.

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Current Great Debates

• Are there limits to growth?
• Is Global Warming really a problem?
• Have we solved the Ozone crisis?
• Is Oil running out any time soon?

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Limits to Growth Debate

• THERE ARE LIMITS exponential growth is not
  sustainable when we must deal with a world of
  finite resources, therefore, policy-makers must
  intervene in the system and lead the way toward a
  sustainable future.
• LIMITS WILL BE REMOVED BY TECHNOLOGY any limits
  that exist will be removed as technology advances.

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The Beyond the Limits Model

• Limiting resources impact other parts of system
• WORLD3 model shows overall state of World and
  human standard of living
• Scenarios 1 2 - Growth is a problem
• Scenario 10 - Population control and limiting
  emissions of pollutants, erosion and resource use
  is the solution

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Global Warming Debate

• THE EARTH IS HEATING UP A broad spectrum of
  scientists have agreed that human activity is
  having a deleterious impact on global
  temperature.
• THE EARTH IS NOT HEATING UP All of the forces of
  nature make mans impact miniscule on the scale
  of things, we are observing normal fluctuations
  only.

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Global Warming Is Real

• Man-made pollution rate increases 10 times
  between 1890 and 1970 levels
• CO2 levels are really rising in air
• Other Greenhouse Gases are rising in
  concentration also NOx,CH4, CFCs,
• H2O level in air will rise as well as temperature
  increases and compound the problem

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Current Online QA on Global Climate Change

• Dr. James Hansen
• NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies.
• http//www.chronicle.com/colloquylive/transcripts/
  2000/11/20001109hansen.htm

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Ozone Problem Solved?

• YES Action taken to eliminate CFCs from
  manufacturing in Developed Nations should reduce
  trend of ozone depletion.
• MAYBE CFCs are only banned in some countries.
  Also, other gases high in the atmosphere,
  aircraft exhaust as well as supersonic transport
  will continue to disrupt the natural formation of
  O3 .

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Ozone O3

• Absorbs harmful UV-B rays in stratosphere
• 10-50km layer above the Earth
• Very fine balance in its creation and destruction
  pattern O2 stripped via high radiation collides
  with available O2 -gt O3
• Very little in atmosphere

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Quiz Show 2

• All the atmospheric Ozone if brought to sea level
  would have the volume of
• A) This Lecture Theatre LT0
• B) A small refrigerator
• C) Cover of a book
• D) The head of a pin

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Quotable Quote

• It is astonishing and terrifying to contemplate
  the narrow margin of safety on which our lives
  thus depend. Were this trifling quantity of
  atmospheric ozone removed we should all perish
• Dr. Charles Greeley Abbot of the SMITHSONIAN
  INSTITUTE quoted in NEW YORK TIMES - 30 October
  1933

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Progress on Ozone Depletion

• While levels of Ozone depletion will continue to
  rise until 2010, it is believed that the ban on
  CFCs phased out by developed countries in 1996
  will have the effect of ultimately reducing CFC
  concentrations in the stratosphere. Hopefully,
  subsequent Ozone destruction after 2010 will
  significantly decline bringing the atmosphere
  back to pre-1980 Ozone levels by mid next century

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Oil is Running Out Debate

• IT IS Our current supplies will last less than
  25 years at present growth rates and economic
  disruption is just around the corner (5yrs)
  unless we curtail use now
• IT IS NOT Our economically extractable reserves
  are over 1 trillion barrels and they will last
  over 40 years at present use levels, let the free
  market forces work.

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World Oil Supply

• US Experience - Hubbert Projections
• R. Duncan Projections - 2004 Peak
• Petroconsultants, Ltd. - 2005 Peak
• CJ Campbell - 2008 Peak
• USDOE Projections - Stable through 2015
• Intl Energy Agency 2010-2020 Peak
• http//sepwww.stanford.edu/sep/jon/world-oil.html

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World Oil Use to Present

• Pre- 1988 610.1 BB
• 1988-1998 220 BB
• Current Rate 25 BB/year
• Reserves 1-2.5 GB
• Growth in Use 2.0
• Depletion Years 20-40 years
• Peak Year 2000 - 2015

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Oil and the Economy

• Supply vs. Demand
• 1970s US Experience of Arab Oil Embargo
• 1999-2000 Impact of OPECs 2.1M/day reduction in
  oil supply price tripled
• Restricted Investment Capital
• more to energy, more to food
• less for growth, jobs, expansion, etc.
• Increased Material Prices / Inflation

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Threat or Opportunity?

• Business Responses
• Ignore
• Watch and Wait
• Strategise and Experiment
• Build Competitive Advantage

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Areas of Activity

• Eco-Innovation
• Profiting from Pollution Prevention
• Eco-Efficiency by Design
• Innovation
• Managing Change
• Systems, Stakeholders and Reporting
• Financial Sector

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Business Case Studies

• Scancem Energy Recovery
• Wessex Water
• BT
• Interface

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Scancem Energy Recovery http//www.scancem.com/

• Subsidiary of SCANCEM international marketer/mfgr
  of mineral based building materials
• gt2B in revenues, gt11,000 employees
• reduced use of fossil fuels by 70,000 tons/yr
• Progress 6 of all energy from rdf in 1996
• 14 acheived by 1998
• 70 goal for 2002

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Wessex Water http//www.wessexwater.plc.uk/

• reduced over 10 of its energy requirements from
  its own renewable sources 18.9 Million - kWh
• biogas from sewage sludge
• small scale hydropower
• committed to outperform UK govt Kyoto targets
• by achieving 20 by 2005 and 50 by 2020

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British Telcomm http//www.bt.com/

• Cellular Phone - Product Take Back
• ECTEL -group of European equipment manufacturers
• BT Will Take Back ANY Manufacturers worn out
  cellular phone at any BT Shop
• For either disassembly, re-use, plastic
  recycling, precious metal recover, or granulation
  and smelting

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Interface http//216.1.140.49/us/

• One of Worlds Leading Carpet Makers
• Offers an innovative floor covering lease where
  customers do not own carpeting but rather lease
  it. Interface provides clean, maintained and new
  looking floor covering for a fixed annual lease.
  They recycle the fibres from worn out stock and
  keep the customer happy with a great looking
  floor.

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Other Case Studies - WBCSD

• http//www.wbcsd.ch/eedata/eecsindx.htm
• another 21 companies such as
• Xerox, Bristol Meyers Squibb, Electrolux and SC
  Johnson Wax

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Dow-Jones Sustainability Index

• to quantify the sustainability performance of an
  enterprise by focusing on a company's pursuit of
  sustainability opportunities
• meeting market demand for sustainable products
  and services
• the reduction, ideally avoidance, of
  sustainability risks and costs
• This assessment is in line with the five
  corporate sustainability principles -
• innovative technology
• corporate governance
• shareholder relations
• industrial leadership
• social well being
• that are focused on the integration of economic,
  ecological and social factors into business
  strategies

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What Does it all Mean to Engineers?

• Keep on top of Sustainability dialogue
• Greater volatility in material and energy prices
  and supplies
• Compounded by more volatile weather
• Growth in Environmental Reporting and Indices
  (35 of top 250 report now)
• Strategic Opportunity for Early Movers

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Take Active Role in the Future

• Policy changes toward sustainability
• Growth is not beneficial, development is.
• Carbon Tax/Credit system
• Biofuels Renewable development
• Population stabilization, efficient resource use,
  minimize nonrenewable depletion, prevent soil
  depletion, slow all exponentials

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Sources of Data and Further Study on
Sustainability

• http//indexes.dowjones.com/djsgi/index.html
• http//www.iccwbo.org/
• Beyond the Limits, Meadows, et.al.
• World Oil, L.F. Ivanhoe
• Coming Oil Crisis, C.J. Campbell
• www.wri.org

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Additional Sources

• http//www.wbcsd.ch/
• http//www.law.pace.edu/env/energy
• The Atmosphere, Lutgens/Tarbuck
• How Soon is Now?, N. Booth
• http//www.dieoff.org/page02.htm
• http//dieoff.org/page133.htm
• http//www.un.org/ecosocdev/geninfo