The NGA Cohort Rate in Michigan

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The NGA Cohort Rate in Michigan

• Paul Bielawski
• Michigan Department of Education

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Grad Rate Clean-Up Activity
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Michigan Graduation Rates

• Single Year 85.75
• Michigans Old Method
• Cohort Rate 75.45
• NGA Method
• Average Freshman Graduation Rate 72.5
• Education Week 66.4

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Michigans Issue 4 Year Rates

• The Proposed Rules require a four-year on-time
  graduation rate
• Michigans context
• New, more rigorous graduation requirements
• Many dropout recovery programs
• Districts receive state school aid until a
  student turns 20 years old
• Michigan advocates for a five-year cohort rate
  for all, not only on a case by case basis

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Impact of Cohort Rate
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Impact of Cohort Rate
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Detroit Graduation Rates

• Single Year 66.80
• Michigans Old Method
• Cohort Rate 58.42
• NGA Method
• Education Week 37.5

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Detroit Data from CCD
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Whats Going On

• No researcher has been able to account for
  student movement
• From school to school (schools of choice) and
• Among traditional schools and public charter
  schools.
• Michigans student data system makes sense in our
  school finance system.
• We didnt adopt the system because of graduation
  rates.
• Michigans old single year grad rates did not
  penalize retention in grade
• Changes in pupil accounting systems can lead to
  comparisons between apples and bananas

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A Recent Reference

• The nature of the variables in the Common Core
  of Data, the dataset maintained by the U.S.
  Department of Education that is the main source
  for all of the new measures, requires caution in
  calculating graduation rates, and the adjustments
  that have been proposed often impart significant
  downward bias to the estimates.
• Roy, J., Mishel, L. (2008). Using
  administrative data to estimate graduation rates
  Challenges, Proposed solutions and their
  pitfalls. Education Policy Analysis Archives,
  16(11).