The Intelligent Use of Lapse Rate Smart Tools

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The Intelligent Use of Lapse Rate Smart Tools

• Patrick D. Moore
• WFO Greenville-Spartanburg

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Comparison between AVL and Flat Top Mountain for
maximum and minimum temperatures in cool and warm
season1

• For maximum temperature

80 of cases show lapse rate in 2-5 deg
F/1000 ft range Population mean 3.4 deg/1000 ft
for both seasons

• For minimum temperature

Even distribution in cool season Sample mean of
1.7 deg/1000 ft for warm season
1(taken from Gerapetritis and Lee, 2003)
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Applying lapse rate to MaxT or MinT grids

• Select CCF number for AVL
• Choose lapse rate
• Climatology
• Eta profile at AVL
• GSP v. AVL MOS temps
• Multiple linear regression
• equation from Eta for cool
• season min temp
• Add lapse rate to AVL temp
• and draw contours based on
• CCF numbers/ISC grids

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Applying lapse rate to MaxT or MinT grids

• Select CCF number for AVL
• Choose lapse rate
• Climatology
• Eta profile at AVL
• GSP v. AVL MOS temps
• Multiple linear regression
• equation from Eta for cool
• season min temp
• Add lapse rate to AVL temp
• and draw contours based on
• CCF numbers/ISC grids
• Apply LapseRate smart tool

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Future Work

• Verification!
• Better smart init using Eta on native grid
• Better smart init for GFS
• Gridded MOS
• What about dewpoint?

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All grid points are created equal
so have a good reason for outliers!