REVENUE Case study: Oslo

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REVENUE Case study Oslo

• Seminar and workshopBrussels, 29 June
• Jon-Terje Bekken
• jbe_at_toi.no
• Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo

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Oslo case study

• The main objective of the Oslo case study is
• to investigate the significant changes in revenue
  use and financing scheme for the toll ring in
  Oslo,
• With a special emphasis on
• acceptance,
• distributional impacts and
• equity for the different stakeholders involved

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Based on 3 different analyses

• Process evaluation
• The context
• The political compromises
• Acceptability analysis
• Attitudes among citizens
• SP analysis (politicians and planners)
• Model scenarios

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Model scenarios

• Scenario A/Oslopackage 1
• Low toll fare (1 euro) Fixed subsidy level for
  public transport and fixed capacity constraints
  in the peak period.
• Scenario B/Oslo package 2
• Additional toll fare (0,25 Euro) and PT fare
  (0,1 euro) targeted on capacity increase in peak
  period. Fixed subsidy level but flexible capacity
  in the peak period.
• Scenario C/Oslo package 3
• SMCP (around 4 Euro) and optimal subsidy level
  for PT in the region.

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FINMOD

• Framework for optimization
• Degrees of freedom for optimization
• Restrictions on revenue use

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Including the peak problem
Actual
number of
vehicles in
operation
Adjustment
factor
Necessary capacity (vehicles)
Extra supply
Extra supply
during rush
during rush
Actual necessary rolling stock
Average necessary rolling stock
Basic supply

Time of day
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Optimized PT service Oslo
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Optimized PT service Oslo (2)
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Optimized PT service Oslo (3)
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Summary of optimizations

• Oslo package 2
• a total social benefit of 211 mill euro compared
  to Oslo package 1 and
• 10 percent more PT passengers
• Oslo package 3
• a total social benefit of 322 mill euro compared
  to Oslo package 1 and
• 33 percent more PT passengers
• The SMCP of PT
• should reduce the capacity peak fare level under
  the toll fare regimes of Oslo package 1 and 2,
• should increase if road pricing were introduced
  in the toll fare regime of Oslo package 3.
• The optimised subsidy level
• is 115 mill euro higher in the Oslo package 1
  scenario
• Is 103 mill euro higher under the Oslo package 2
  scenarios, due to the increased toll fare.
• If road pricing is introduced (Oslo package 3),
  there will be no need to increase PT subsidies.

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Process evaluation

• What are the characteristics of the contents and
  the organisation of the packages?
• What are the impacts of the organisation of the
  packages on the political goals and priorities in
  the region?

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Time frame for the evolution towards the current
Norwegian urban toll packages
4. Generation ?????
The original toll road scheme
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Acceptability of Oslo package 2
Reasons for a positive attitude towards the toll
ring
Source PROSAM rapport nr 10
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General acceptability of the toll ring
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Attitudes towards the toll ring depending on
revenue use (2003)
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The probability to recommend different measures
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Some conclusions

• Currently, the fares of the toll ring are set at
  a politically acceptable level that generates
  the sufficient funds for a number of specific
  investments
• There are great potential in a more efficient
  pricing rule
• Currently, there are few possibilities to make
  priorities between modes and the two regions.
• Our optimization suggests that there are only
  minor benefits from this
• The current package was a compromise
• Our analysis suggests that a road pricing scheme
  is superior, but will challenge the acceptability
  criteria and the political compromises

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FINMOD
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Hva er et optimalt tilbud?