Future Technology, Society, and the United Nations Family

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Futures Research Methodology Bled Forum 2007
Jerome C. Glenn The Millennium
Project www.stateofthefuture.org
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Futures Research Methodology V2.0

• 1. Introduction Overview 15. Simulation and
  Games
• 2. Environmental Scanning 16. Genius
  Forecasting, Vision, and Int.
• 3. Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting
• 4. Futures Wheel 18. ST Road Mapping
• 5. Trend Impact Analysis 19. Field Anomaly
  Relaxation (FAR)
• 6. Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for
  Technology Foresight
• 7. Structural Analysis 21. Agent Modeling
• 8. Systems Perspectives 22. SOFI
• 9. Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software
• 10. Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple
  Perspective Concept
• 11. Technological Sequence Analysis 25. Tool Box
  for Scenario Planning
• 12. Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis 26.
  Causal Layered Analysis
• 13. Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios 27.
  Integration, Comparisons, and
• 14. Participatory Methods Frontiers of
  Futures Research Methods

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Futures Research Methods

• Environmental Scanning System
• Futures Wheel
• Cross-Impact Analysis
• Scenarios
• RT Delphi
• SOFI
• Making Futures research effective in
  decision-making

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Futures Intelligence System
Press Releases Newsletters Journals
Key Persons Tracking
Conferences Seminars
Key Word Internet Searching
Monitor Specific Websites
SCANNING
Analysis Synthesis
Individual
Staff
Management
Weblog Database
Feedback New Requirements
Decisions Future Oriented understanding and
learning
Management
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Futures Wheel
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Cross-Impact trends and/or potential future events
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Delphi

• Define questions, rating assumptions
• Select panel
• Distribution Interactive, file, paper, RT
• Feedback to Round 2
• Options for interviews
• Options for fill in the blanks in scenarios

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Real Time Delphi (or RT Delphi)

• It is round-less but cumulative and based on
  feedback
• a participant can determine how many rounds or
  times they revise or add responses
• Every time they come back to the on-line matrix,
  they can see new comments and ratings entered
  since they last signed on, and they can see their
  previous answers in relation to the others. They
  then have the ability to change their responses
• Futurists and Planners can use an RT Delphi to
• Systemically collect, store, feedback, and rate
  the best thinking from a range of the best minds
  that are not easily assembled in a meeting
• Define and weight criteria for important
  controversial decisions
• Add and rate alternative decision options
• Provide logic and traceability to decision making
• RT Delphi makes the approach asynchronous, and
  efficient

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The Matrix
CODE
Criteria in this row
Average judgments of the group
Number of responses so far
Drop down menu
Your response
Red cells mean big difference
Place for you to enter reasons and see others
Alternate solutions all remaining rows
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Definition of a Scenario

• A scenario is a story with plausible cause and
  effect links that connects a future condition
  with the present, while illustrating key
  decisions, events, and consequences throughout
  the narrative.

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A Scenario is not

• A projection although projections are included
  in a scenario.
• A discussion about a range of future
  possibilities with data and analysis It is like
  confusing the text of a play's newspaper review
  with the text of the play written by the
  playwright.

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Classic Herman Kahn Scenarios

• Surprise-free, business-as-usual, reference,
  base-case scenario is a simple extrapolation of
  current trends and their interplay
• Worst case scenario based on mismanagement and
  bad luck
• Best case scenario based on good management and
  good luck.

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Scenario Space Defined by Axes
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Exploratory vs. Normative Scenarios

• Exploratory Scenarios vast majority of
  scenarios are exploratory scenarios, also call
  descriptive scenarios
• Normative Scenarios Middle East Peace Scenario
  set and Normative 2050 Scenario. Can be
  proprietary to an organization (normative
  scenario for corporate strategy) or government
  (Military invasion scenario)

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Scenarios have been developed and utilized to

• Discover what is unknown that ought to be known,
  before making decisions
• Understand the significance of uncertainties
• Illustrate what is possible and what is not
  possible
• Identify what strategies might work in a range of
  possible scenarios
• Make the future more real for decision makers to
  force new thinking and new decisions
• Learn what has to be avoided and discover new
  opportunities

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Weaknesses of Scenarios

• Can limit thinking to the official scenarios
• Writers model of how the world works transferred
  to the reader
• The struggle to be interesting and the dynamic of
  the story can make it difficult to include
  important but boring details of connecting cause
  and effect.
• To be accepted, far out can be edited out

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Global SOFI history2001- 2005
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Making Futures research effective in
decision-making

• Make sure DM understands was FR is and is not
• Formal link to strategic planning
• Work with champion within the organization
• Show complexity to DM via workshops, computer
  models
• Integrate DM into the FR process as much as
  possible
• Make the future more real to the DM via
  subjective descriptions
• Include the full range of stakeholders
• If goals not clear, then add their identification
  in the process
• If actor on FR not clear, then add that to the
  process
• Use at least one formal method all understand
• Demonstrate crisis
• Demonstrate what is possible with success stories
• Connect options to goals in political, cultural
  and social (non-technical) terms
• Show technical feasibility of recommendations
• Connect the costs to the benefits

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Continued.

• If the information and data are inaccurate,
  unreliable, conflicting, and/or insufficient,
  then expose the problem, collect best judgments,
  and suggest ways of making decisions within the
  uncertain environment.
• Include the intended actions of related
  institutions
• Develop and popularize appropriate indicators
• Use testimony of eminent scientists
• Clarify the forecasted condition with and without
  action
• Link to other FR activities so that diverse
  inputs are possible
• Avoid information overload.
• Use workshops to give time to integrate the
  concepts in a group setting.
• Consider how to include the media to popularize
  concepts
• Make the work continuous and cumulative.

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Futures Research Methodology V2.0

• 1. Introduction Overview 15. Simulation and
  Games
• 2. Environmental Scanning 16. Genius
  Forecasting, Vision, and Int.
• 3. Delphi 17. Normative Forecasting
• 4. Futures Wheel 18. ST Road Mapping
• 5. Trend Impact Analysis 19. Field Anomaly
  Relaxation (FAR)
• 6. Cross-Impact Analysis 20. Text Mining for
  Technology Foresight
• 7. Structural Analysis 21. Agent Modeling
• 8. Systems Perspectives 22. SOFI
• 9. Decision Modeling 23. SOFI Software
• 10. Statistical Modeling 24. The Multiple
  Perspective Concept
• 11. Technological Sequence Analysis 25. Tool Box
  for Scenario Planning
• 12. Relevance Trees and Morph. Analysis 26.
  Causal Layered Analysis
• 13. Scenarios 13.5 Interactive Scenarios 27.
  Integration, Comparisons, and
• 14. Participatory Methods Frontiers of
  Futures Research Methods