The ipod has dethroned Sony's Walkman as 'the fastes

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WMST 245INNOVATIONS AND THEIR ADOPTION
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Cogito Ergo Sum (iThink Therefore iAm)
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iPod Advertisement 2004, featuring U2 performing
Vertigo
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iPod Advertisement May 2006
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iPod Advertisement 2008
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iPod Sales, Quarterly 2001-2007
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iPod Sales Total, 2001-2007
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iPod Sales
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Today Apple announced that after 5 years of
selling ipods, theyve sold 100 million on them.
The ipod has dethroned Sonys Walkman as the
fastest selling music player in history. Poor
Walkman. Posted April 9, 2007Footnote Sony
sold 150 million Walkmans from 1979 to 1995, and
possibly 340 million to date
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The Next Generation - iPhones
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The Third Generation - iPads
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Classical Adoption Curve for an Innovation
Everett Rogers (1962) Diffusion of Innovations
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Adoption of Innovations by Different Groups of
People
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Innovators (a) venturesome - desire for the
rash, the daring, and the risky (b) control of
substantial financial resources to absorb
possible loss from an unprofitable innovation
(c) ability to understand and apply complex
technical knowledge (d) ability to cope with a
high degree of uncertainty.
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Early Adopters (a) integrated part of the local
social system (b) greatest degree of opinion
leadership in most systems (c) serve as role
model for other members or society (d) respected
by peers (e) successful.
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Early Majority (a) interact frequently with
peers (b) seldom hold positions of opinion
leadership (c) one-third of the members of a
system, making the early majority the largest
category (d) deliberate before adopting a new
idea.
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Late Majority (a) one-third of the members of a
system (b) pressure from peers (c) economic
necessity (d) skeptical (e) cautious.
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Laggards (a) possess no opinion leadership (b)
isolates (c) point of reference in the past (d)
suspicious of innovations (e) innovation-decision
process is lengthy (f) resources are limited.

• Laggards are very set in their ways, and will
  only adopt an innovation when it has become
  mainstream i.e. standard practice in an
  organisation

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Technology Adoption?
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WOMEN FARMERS AND TECHNOLOGY ADOPTION

• Women lack secure land tenure and titles to land
• Women lack access to finance (credit) and inputs
  (seeds, fertilizer, water, tools)
• Technologies may not be designed for womens
  farming systems
• Women may be illiterate or have limited education
• Women may lack access to media of extension
  methods, such as radio
• Extension agents may ignore women farmers, or not
  interact well with them
• Extension agents may not communicate well in the
  local language
• The extension service may not be trained to work
  with groups, which work best for women farmers
• In some cultures, male extensions agents are not
  permitted to talk to women farmers
• There may be very small numbers of women
  extension agents, who concentrate on home
  economics rather than farm management
• Problems faced by women farmers may not be
  communicated to research
• There may be very small numbers of women
  scientists

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THE 20TH CENTURY WAS THE MOST REMARKABLE IN THE
HISTORY OF AGRICULTURE

• AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INCREASED HUGELY DUE TO
• MORE FERTILIZER
• NEW HIGH YIELDING CROP VARIETIES
• INVESTMENTS IN IRRIGATION
• BETTER CROP PROTECTION
• MECHANIZATION

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AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION INCREASED IN THE 20TH
CENTURY

• 1930-1980 MAIZE YIELDS QUADRUPLED IN THE USA
• 1950-1986 WHEAT YIELDS TRIPLED IN THE WORLD
  (770 TO 2,160 KG/HA)
• 1965-1980 RICE PRODUCTION IN THE WORLD GREW AT
  3.2 PERCENT PER YEAR
• 1985-2020 WE NEED CEREAL YIELDS TO INCREASE BY
  MORE THAN 56 PERCENT 1.3 P.A. TO FEED A WORLD
  POPULATION PROJECTED AT 7.8 BILLION. CAN WE DO
  IT?

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AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY INCREASED IN THE 20TH
CENTURY

• World Average Crop Yields (metric tons per
  hectare)
• Crop 1961 1970 1980 1990 2000 incr.
• Maize 1.94 2.35 3.16 3.68 4.27 120
• Rice (Paddy) 1.87 2.38 2.75 3.53 3.90 109
• Wheat 1.09 1.49 1.86 2.56 2.74 151
• Sorghum 0.89 1.13 1.30 1.36 1.38 55
• Lentils 0.53 0.57 0.59 0.80 0.89 68

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CEREAL PRODUCTION INCREASED ALMOST THREE
TIMESLAND PLANTED TO CEREALS STAYED THE
SAMECEREAL PRODUCTION INCREASED MORE THAN
POPULATION
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TWO BIG THINGS HAPPENED IN AGRICULTURE IN THE
TWENTIETH CENTURY

• PLANT NUTRITION DISCOVERIES LED TO A HUGE
  FERTILIZER INDUSTRY
• 1900 2 MILLION TONS 1939 9 MILLION TONS
• 1955 21 MILLION TONS 1965 31 MILLION TONS
• 90 MILLION TONS 2005 157 MILLION TONS
• MENDELS LAWS OF GENETICS WERE REDISCOVERED ABOUT
  1900 BY
• HUGO DE VRIES (HOLLAND)
• CARL CORRENS (GERMANY)
• ERICH VON TSCHERMAK-SEYSENEGG (AUSTRIA)

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EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (1)
Gregor Johann Mendel (1822-1884)
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EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (2) Hugo
de Vries (1848-1935)
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EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (3) Carl
Correns (1864-1933)
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EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (4)
Erich von Tschermak-Seysenegg (1871-1962)
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EARLY ACTORS IN THE GENETIC REVOLUTION (5)
Barbara McClintock (1902-1992) First genetic map
for maizeNobel Prize for Medicine or Physiology
for discovery of genetic transposition
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THE BIG GAINS IN SCIENTIFIC AGRICULTURE CAME
AFTER 1945 (WW II)

• IN JAPAN, RICE YIELDS INCREASED BY
• 15 1550-1720 (MORE SYSTEMATIC IRRIGATION)
• 50 1721-1944 (BEGINNINGS OF CROP BREEDING)
• 100 1945-1985 (MORE BREEDING, HEAVY FERTILIZER
  USE, PLANT PROTECTION CHEMICALS)
• IN SPITE OF EVIDENCE FROM THE HIGH INCOME
  COUNTRIES, PEOPLE REMAINED PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE
  LOW INCOME COUNTRIES (PADDOCK BROS. PAUL
  EHRLICH)
• THE GREEN REVOLUTION SWEPT IN MID TO LATE 1960s

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THE GREEN REVOLUTION

• HISTORY RECORDS NO INCREASE IN FOOD PRODUCTION
  THAT WAS REMOTELY COMPARABLE IN SCALE, SPEED,
  SPREAD AND DURATION LIPTON LONGHURST (1989)
• TERM GREEN REVOLUTION COINED BY WILLIAM S. GAUD
  (Former Administrator of USAID)
• 1950-1985 INCREASED PRODUCTION OF CEREALS FROM
• AREA (Multiple cropping)(25) VARIETIES (23)
  FERTILIZER (33) IRRIGATION (8) OTHER FACTORS
  (11)

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A FATHER OF THE GREEN REVOLUTION Norman
Borlaug (1914- 2009), Winner of the Nobel Peace
Prize, 1970
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Progress in a Food Innovation
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Slowing Progress in a Food Innovation
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INNOVATIONS IN THE iPOD

• Flash memory
• Click wheel (user interface)
• Music store
• Software (and compatibility)
• Sound quality
• Looks (font face)
• Batteries chargers
• Earphones

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INNOVATIONS IN WHEAT

• Dwarf stature new architecture
• Less susceptible to lodging
• Higher harvest index ratio of grain to
  straw/leaves
• Photoperiod insensitivity
• Great tillering ability
• Grain dormancy in the head
• Short duration
• Responsive to nutrients
• Resistant to pests diseases

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PIETER BRUEGHELTHE ELDERThe Harvesters (1565)
Note height of wheat
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COLLECTING MODERN WHEAT HEAD SAMPLES - Note
height of wheat Source USDA www.ars.usda.gov/Ma
in/docs.htm?docid13779
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LESSONS FROM THE GREEN REVOLUTION

• CROP YIELDS CAN GO HIGHER YET (range 5 to 25
  tons/ha grain equivalent cf 2.75 tons on our
  average farm)
• ONCE HIGHER YIELDS ATTAINED, NEEDS MUCH HIGHER
  FOR MAINTENANCE RESEARCH
• MOST GAINS FROM INCREASED HARVEST INDEX RATHER
  THAN INCREASED BIOMASS
• INVESTMENTS IN PLANT BREEDING CROP IMPROVEMENT
  HAVE HIGH RATES OF RETURN
• FUTURE GAINS COMBINATION OF BREEDING BETTER
  RESOURCE MANAGEMENT