Aided Decision Making

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Aided Decision Making
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Heads vs Formulas - Kleinmuntz

• Flawed Cognition
• Remediation of Flawed Cognition
• Improving Thinking
• Comparing Cognition Against Formulas
• Judgment and Formulas
• Cost/Benefit Trade-Offs

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Kleinmutz Observation about Judgment

• Judgment
• is flawed
• can be outperformed
• can be modeled by formulas
• is worthy of further study
• can be used in combination with formulas

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Judgment

• Statistical or Intuitive Judgment
• Unaided Judgment
• Aided Judgment
• Statistical and Intuitive Judgment

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Unaided Judgment

• Heuristics, Cognitive Biases, Limitations
• Cognitive Suboptimality
• Illusory Correlation
• Overconfidence
• Relevance of Experience
• Cognitive Overload
• Cognitive Correctness

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Aided Judgment

• Bayesian
• Decision Analysis
• Signal Detection Theory
• Information Processing

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Combining Heads FormulasCost and Benefits

• Deluded Self-Confidence
• Configural Complexities
• Cost and Availability of Decision Supports

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Summary

• People still use their heads, flawed as they may
  be, because many decisions, inferences, choices,
  and problems have no available formulas. Where
  formulas are available, their evaluation is not
  feasible.
• Conclusion - people should use their heads
  instead of, or together with, formulas as seems
  most appropriate.

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Guidelines