Melbourne, 26th August 2004 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

1 / 46
About This Presentation
Title:

Melbourne, 26th August 2004

Description:

Increasing the collaboration between honours, PhD students and staff, ... for the main presentation, but everybody from honours, PhD students and staff is ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:47
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 47
Provided by: Caio7
Category:

less

Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Melbourne, 26th August 2004


1
Melbourne, 26th August 2004
Climate Discussion for July 2004 Monthly
anomalies for the Southern Hemisphere
2
Acknowledgements
  • Some of the information was provided by the
    Argentine (www.meteofa.mil.ar ) and the Brazilian
    weather services (www.cptec.inpe.br and
    www.inmet.gov.br ), the Climate Studies Group of
    the University of Sao Paulo (www.grec.iag.usp.br
    ), the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia
    (www.bom.gov.au ), and some other sources
    (NCEP/NOAA, IRI and ECMWF).

3
What is the purpose of this meeting?
  • Discuss the relevant aspects of the climate
    during the last month in the Southern Hemisphere
  • Increasing the collaboration between honours, PhD
    students and staff, contributing for a more
    exciting and productive environment
  • Giving the Earth Sciences community the
    opportunity to participate and interact with us,
    if opening the meetings to everybody at a later
    stage.

4
Important things to consider
  • This is an informal meeting, it is NOT a
    traditional seminar
  • Everyone is very welcome to interrupt at anytime
  • Suggestion Alex can be in charge for the main
    presentation, but everybody from honours, PhD
    students and staff is very welcome to contribute
    and present additional features (e.g. next month
    there will be a presentation by Kevin Keay)
  • Those who wish to help with the power point
    presentation are very welcome!

5
(No Transcript)
6
(No Transcript)
7
(No Transcript)
8
 
9
(No Transcript)
10
 
11
(No Transcript)
12
 
13
Total Precipitation
14
Precipitation Anomaly
15
Minimum Temperature Anomaly
16
Maximum Temperature Anomaly
17
National Weather Service- Argentina Temperature
(left) and precipitation (right) anomaly
18
(No Transcript)
19
(No Transcript)
20
(No Transcript)
21
(No Transcript)
22
(No Transcript)
23
(No Transcript)
24
OLR Anomaly
25
OLR Anomaly (average 0/10S, Band Pass Filter for
30-60days)
26
SST Anomaly
27
SOI (1996-2004)
28
El Niño Wrap-up (from BOM)
  • El Niño Wrap-Up
  • CURRENT STATUS as at 18th August 2004Next
    update expected by 25th August 2004 (one week
    after this update). The risk that we're seeing
    the beginnings of an El Niño event has increased
    during the past two weeks. Ocean surface
    temperatures remain significantly higher than
    average in the central Pacific Ocean, the SOI is
    persisting in negative values for the third
    successive month, and cloudiness has increased
    around the equatorial dateline. These are all
    classic signatures of a developing El Niño.
    However, the Trade Winds have returned to close
    to or a little stronger than average east of the
    dateline, after being strongly weaker than
    average during much of July. Subsurface
    temperatures seem to have responded to the
    increased winds with a decline in the strength of
    subsurface warming during the first two and a
    half weeks of August. The evolution of a westerly
    wind burst (WWB), presently over the western
    Pacific, could be crucial. If it fails to
    penetrate east of the dateline, conditions will
    remain delicately poised. However, a continued
    eastward propagation of the WWB, which would
    result in a renewed weakening of the central
    Pacific Trade Winds, may be sufficient to trigger
    an El Niño event. Computer model guidance
    indicates continued warmer than average
    conditions across the central Pacific. Even in
    the absence of a clearly defined El Niño event,
    this would be sufficient to increase the risk of
    areas of below average rainfall and above average
    temperatures persisting in parts of eastern
    Australia, especially when combined with negative
    SOI values.

29
(No Transcript)
30
MSLP and anomaly
31
NCEP
32
(No Transcript)
33
Mean 850 hpa wind and anomaly
34
500 hPa Geopotential Anomaly
35
Mean 200 hPa wind and anomaly
36
  • Now lets see the forecasts...

37
(No Transcript)
38
(No Transcript)
39
(No Transcript)
40
(No Transcript)
41
(No Transcript)
42
(No Transcript)
43
(No Transcript)
44
Conclusions
  • Colder and wetter than normal in most of South
    America
  • Australia slightly cooler than average to the
    south and warmer to the north (mostly dry)
  • Suggestion that a weak El Niño might be back,
    with unfavorable conditions towards rainfall in
    eastern Australia during spring time.

45
Next meetings...
  • Alex will be in charge for the main part of the
    next presentations
  • Additional features report for a damaging
    flooding in the UK (by Kevin Keay next month)
  • Any volunteers to present additional things?
    (Suggestions Hurricane Charlie in Florida, or
    anything interesting around the world. Just send
    the ppt to Alex a couple of days before the
    meeting)
  • We could have a public area for the power point
    or people could send the additional images direct
    to alex via e-mail
  • Suggestions, comments, criticism, is it a bad or
    a good thing to have a climate discussion, or it
    doesnt matter at all?
  • Is Thursday 02 PM a good time?

46
Some feedback please...
Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
About PowerShow.com