Title: Melbourne, 26th August 2004
1Melbourne, 26th August 2004
Climate Discussion for July 2004 Monthly
anomalies for the Southern Hemisphere
2Acknowledgements
- Some of the information was provided by the
Argentine (www.meteofa.mil.ar ) and the Brazilian
weather services (www.cptec.inpe.br and
www.inmet.gov.br ), the Climate Studies Group of
the University of Sao Paulo (www.grec.iag.usp.br
), the Bureau of Meteorology in Australia
(www.bom.gov.au ), and some other sources
(NCEP/NOAA, IRI and ECMWF).
3What is the purpose of this meeting?
- Discuss the relevant aspects of the climate
during the last month in the Southern Hemisphere - Increasing the collaboration between honours, PhD
students and staff, contributing for a more
exciting and productive environment - Giving the Earth Sciences community the
opportunity to participate and interact with us,
if opening the meetings to everybody at a later
stage.
4Important things to consider
- This is an informal meeting, it is NOT a
traditional seminar - Everyone is very welcome to interrupt at anytime
- Suggestion Alex can be in charge for the main
presentation, but everybody from honours, PhD
students and staff is very welcome to contribute
and present additional features (e.g. next month
there will be a presentation by Kevin Keay) - Those who wish to help with the power point
presentation are very welcome!
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12 13Total Precipitation
14Precipitation Anomaly
15Minimum Temperature Anomaly
16Maximum Temperature Anomaly
17National Weather Service- Argentina Temperature
(left) and precipitation (right) anomaly
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24OLR Anomaly
25OLR Anomaly (average 0/10S, Band Pass Filter for
30-60days)
26SST Anomaly
27SOI (1996-2004)
28El Niño Wrap-up (from BOM)
- El Niño Wrap-Up
- CURRENT STATUS as at 18th August 2004Next
update expected by 25th August 2004 (one week
after this update). The risk that we're seeing
the beginnings of an El Niño event has increased
during the past two weeks. Ocean surface
temperatures remain significantly higher than
average in the central Pacific Ocean, the SOI is
persisting in negative values for the third
successive month, and cloudiness has increased
around the equatorial dateline. These are all
classic signatures of a developing El Niño.
However, the Trade Winds have returned to close
to or a little stronger than average east of the
dateline, after being strongly weaker than
average during much of July. Subsurface
temperatures seem to have responded to the
increased winds with a decline in the strength of
subsurface warming during the first two and a
half weeks of August. The evolution of a westerly
wind burst (WWB), presently over the western
Pacific, could be crucial. If it fails to
penetrate east of the dateline, conditions will
remain delicately poised. However, a continued
eastward propagation of the WWB, which would
result in a renewed weakening of the central
Pacific Trade Winds, may be sufficient to trigger
an El Niño event. Computer model guidance
indicates continued warmer than average
conditions across the central Pacific. Even in
the absence of a clearly defined El Niño event,
this would be sufficient to increase the risk of
areas of below average rainfall and above average
temperatures persisting in parts of eastern
Australia, especially when combined with negative
SOI values.
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30MSLP and anomaly
31NCEP
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33Mean 850 hpa wind and anomaly
34500 hPa Geopotential Anomaly
35Mean 200 hPa wind and anomaly
36- Now lets see the forecasts...
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44Conclusions
- Colder and wetter than normal in most of South
America - Australia slightly cooler than average to the
south and warmer to the north (mostly dry) - Suggestion that a weak El Niño might be back,
with unfavorable conditions towards rainfall in
eastern Australia during spring time.
45Next meetings...
- Alex will be in charge for the main part of the
next presentations - Additional features report for a damaging
flooding in the UK (by Kevin Keay next month) - Any volunteers to present additional things?
(Suggestions Hurricane Charlie in Florida, or
anything interesting around the world. Just send
the ppt to Alex a couple of days before the
meeting) - We could have a public area for the power point
or people could send the additional images direct
to alex via e-mail - Suggestions, comments, criticism, is it a bad or
a good thing to have a climate discussion, or it
doesnt matter at all? - Is Thursday 02 PM a good time?
46Some feedback please...