Globalization

1
Globalization

• climate change
• and
• energy crisis

2
globalization

• as a result of world wide expansion of the
  industrial development model

3
Well focus on the intertwined process of

• World wide expansion of industrial economy model
  based on intensive use of oil
• Mounting global warming for the most part a
  consequence of oil based economies, finally
  resulting in climate change

4
expansion

• This expansion follows its natural course, by
  penetrating all other kinds of economic
  arrangements
• Serving its own needs
• Also consciously promoted (or enforced) by WB,
  IMF, WTO and development aid agencies
• Mainly professed and executed as common sense
  economics and world view

5
Energy use

• Inherent to this model is the intensive use of
  fossil fuels, mainly oil
• This oil based economy is everywhere
• Even most of world food production is globalized
  along oil intensive lines

6
Economic scarcity

• The growing energy needs lead energy suppliers to
  an extensive search for oil
• Today they cannot keep up with worldwide demand
  because of capacity limitations to exploit this
  raw material fully (drilling / refining)

7
Physical scarcity

• More oil exploitation and use will lead to
  physical scarcity there is only a fixed amount
  of oil on this planet

8
Now some basic maths comes into play
9
Energy to produce energy

• It takes a lot of oil to produce oil the US
  case
• 1916 1 barrel to recover 28 barrels
• 1985 1 barrel to recover 2 barrels
• This ratio is still dropping

10
production peaking

• US production peaked in 1970
• UK 2000/2001
• Saudi Arabia will peak in 2015
• Worldwide 2006-2015
  

11
discovery peaking

• overall discoveries peaked in the 1960s
• with just 1 new barrel of oil being discovered
  today for every 4 that is consumed

12
Peaking is not running out of oil,but oil will
be pumped on an inexorably declining basis
13
Climate Change

• IPCC consensus climate change is unequivocal
  and may bring abrupt and irreversable impacts
• humankinds emissions of greenhouse gases are
  more than 90 likely to be the main cause

14
Greenhouse gases

• greenhouse gases (GHG)
• gases emitted by combustion of fossil fuels they
  cause the atmospheres warming up
• (carbondioxide etc.)

15
from economy to climate change

• With expanding (oil based) economy the use of oil
  expands,
• and consequently greenhouse gas emissions,
• greenhouse gases cause climate change for the
  largest part,
• so climate change is ultimately connected to
  global economic expansion

16
GHG effects in the Caribbean

• Rising sea levels
• Major changes to coastlines
• Inundating lowlying areas
• Warming up of seawater energizes hurricanes
• Etc.

17
Urgency to reverse the trend

• IPCC within a decade
• Kyoto Protocol international agreement to cut
  GHG emissions
• EU and Davos agree to cut GHG
• US universities, federal states, municipalities
  etc.

18
Best policies

• End the use of oil and other fossil fuels
• (WB admits but refuses to adapt lending policies)
• Built energy saving and non- fossil fuel economy

19
obstacles

• Existing economic model, its practices and
  current common sense economics and world view
  prevent wise policies to be practised

20
Model in real danger

• Being inherently an oil based model while
• Urgent need to cut GHG emissions
• Inevitability that oil stocks deplete during this
  century
• Another development path is urgently needed to
  manage this structure problem, but is another
  paradigm available?

21
Curacao geopolitics

• World oil depletion is inevitable will the last
  few drops be available to small markets of small
  island states?
• Transition to sustainable and clean energy
  systems is inevitable and urgently needed,
  especially for small islands our geopolitical
  challenge

22
Restructure energy system

• Save energy on massive scale
• New energy sources sun, sea and wind power, also
  muscular strength
• Restructure land use (avoid urban sprawls)
• Restructure energy sector

23
Oil dependency and new dependency

• Does the use of new energy systems lead to energy
  autonomy?
• Most improbable, given our existing social,
  economic and political organization
• Oil industry is buying in on renewables
• Knowledge gap with industrial countries
• Current lending policies of countries and
  development agencies

24
What to do our geopolitics

• Invest in and develop own sustainable and clean
  energy systems (cooperation with SIDS)
• Disconnect energy sector from refinery and CUC
  (BOO)

25
Meet energy challenge by strengthening our
society from within

• maximize energy autonomy for citizens
• decentralize and maximize household/neigborhood
  ownership of small energy systems
• define new tasks for energy sector to sustain
  abovementioned new policies

26
Amigu di Tera / Friends of the Earth Curaçao

• Lloyd Narain