Sustainable energy: Challenge and Opportunities

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Sustainable energy Challenge and Opportunities

• E. Michael Campbell
• Senior Vice-President, Energy Group, General
  Atomics
• 50th Anniversary Celebration of Fusion at GA

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Energy is vital to human well-being
Electricity use is closely tied to economic
development
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How much energy do we need?
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Global energy demands will continue to grow-
but not without consequences!
CO2 emission
Wars
War
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Energy supply is needed in multiple forms

• End-game energy forms Electricity as well as
  Process Heat and Transportation Fuel (Hydrogen).
  We tend to think just about electricity.

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Its not just electricity Transportation fuel
needs are also projected to significantly
increase in the future
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Oil Refinery in Kuwait
Refinery in Kuwait
Middle East by Philip Steele (Getty/Stgone)
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Tar Sands, northeastern Alberta, Canada
Tar sands, northeastern Alberta, Canada
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Tar Sands, northeastern Alberta, Canada
Tar sands, northeastern Alberta, Canada
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Sustainable Energy

• What will we ultimately need?
• 25-50 TWs
• Adequate fuel supplies
• Renewable
• Abundant supply
• Flexible
• Electricity
• Transportation
• Other needs (i.e. water, process heat)
• Acceptable impact on the environment
• Economical

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There is not one solution to the global energy
challenge

• Sustainable Global power production of 25-50 TW
  will require
• Increased efficiency
• Conservation
• Distributed energy sources
• Improved distribution
• Improved storage
• Central (concentrated ) energy sources
• Coal
• nuclear

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A simple way to look at energy sustainability
Useful Energy (power)
Fuel
Waste
Example 1000 gigawatts of electricity or 200
million tonnes of hydrogen (per year)
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Pulverized Coal 51 of todays electricity
1000-GWe scenario 436 increase in current 230
GWe coal production rate.
Fuel shipping 1,240 100x100 coal trains/day
4.530,000,000 ton/yr coal
Coal Plants
7.59 Gt/yr CO2
37 efficient power conversion
Current US Recoverable Coal Reserves 18,122 M
tons
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Meeting energy demands must change
Coal strip mine in China
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The present LWR nuclear fleet will be retired by
mid-century-will they be replaced?
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The Climate Change Challenge has Near-Term and
Long-Term Elements
the needed prompt and sharp departures from
the business-as-usual trajectory must lead to
an early leveling off of those emissions at a
figure not much larger than todays, followed by
a decline to approximately one-quarter to
one-third of todays emissions by the end of the
century. U.N. Foundation Scientific Expert
Group on Climate Change and Sustainable
Development
Rob Socolow
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The world needs large scale deployment of fusion
by mid-century!

• 1950-2010
• The Physics of Plasmas
• 2010-2030
• The Physics of Fusion
• The Fermi Demonstration - Fusion-heated and
  sustained
• Q (Ef / Einput )10
• 2020-2050
• The Engineering and Materials Science of
  Fusion-Demo!
• 2050
• Large scale deployment!

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Nuclear energy Must be significantly expanded
over the next century

• Large scale deployment of fusion is needed by
  mid-century but significant challenges remain
• Physics and engineering maturation
• Confidence in the private sector
• Economics require both capital investment and OM
  (Utilities will look to gt90 capacity factors)
• Advanced Fission can be the bridge
• Improved reactors are required and do exist!
• Better fuel utilization and reduced waste
  generation
• An integrated transition path from Fission to
  Fusion needs to be developed
• Fusion must learn from fission experience and
  synergy needs to be developed
• Materials
• End use applications
• The long term nuclear options are limited
• Generation IV thermal and breeder reactors
• fusion