Is College Affordable

1
Is College Affordable?

• Sandy Baum
• Skidmore College and The College Board
• Association of Governing Boards
• March 2007

2
The Price Tag
3
Distribution of Full-Time Undergraduates at
Four-Year Institutions by Published Tuition and
Fee Charges, 2006-07
Source Annual Survey of Colleges, The College
Board, New York, NY.
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006
4
Average Published Charges for Undergraduates
2006-07 (Enrollment-Weighted)
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006, Table 1.
5
Sample Average Undergraduate Budgets, 2006-07
(Enrollment-Weighted)
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006
6
Average Published Tuition and Fee Charges,
Five-Year Intervals, 1976-77 to 2006-07
(Enrollment-Weighted)
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006
7
Public 4-Year Institutions Tuition, Fee, Room,
and Board (TFRB) Charges by College Board
Regionin Constant (2006) Dollars, 1996-97 and
2006-07 (Enrollment-Weighted)
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006
8
Net Price
9
Net Price Published Tuition and Fee Charges
Compared to Tuition and Fees After Average Grant
And Education Tax Benefits Per Full-Time
Undergraduate Student by Type of Institution, in
Constant (2006) Dollars, 1996-97 to 2006-07
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006, Unpublished.
10
Published Tuition and Fee Charges Compared to
Tuition and Fees After Grants and Education Tax
Benefits, Full-Time Dependent Students in
Constant (2003) Dollars, 1992-93 to 2003-04
Source NPSAS 1993, 1996, 2000, 2004,
Undergraduates calculations by authors.
11
Published Tuition and Fee Charges Compared to
Tuition and Fees After Grants and Education Tax
Benefits, Full-Time Dependent Students in
Constant (2003) Dollars, 1992-93 and 2003-04
Source NPSAS 1993, 1996, 2000, 2004,
Undergraduates calculations by authors.
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006
12
Estimated Student Aid by Source for Academic Year
2005-06 in Current Dollars (in Billions)
Source The College Board, Trends in Student Aid,
2006
13
What is Driving Prices?
14
Annual Percentage Changes in Instructional
Appropriations and in Tuition and Fees at Public
Four-Year Institutions 1980-81 to 2004-05
(Constant 2004 Dollars)
Source Table 3a and data online
(collegeboard.com/trends) State Higher Education
Executive Officers, 2005.
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006
15
State and Local Appropriations for Higher
Education Institutions in Constant (2004)
Dollars Total Appropriations, Appropriations
per Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) Student, and
Enrollments, 1980-81 to 2004-05
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006
16
Percentage Changes in the Prices of Goods and
Services Purchased by College and Universities
Compared to the CPI and HEPI 2000-01 to 2005-06
Source Common Fund Institute, 2006 HEPI Update,
Table 3.1.
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006
17
Average Salaries of Full Professors at Public and
Private Doctoral and Comprehensive Universities
and Earnings of All Ph.D.s in Constant (2005)
Dollars, 19772005
Source Common Fund Institute, 2006 HEPI Update
U.S. Census Bureau, 2006, PINC-03.
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006
18
Percentage of First- and Second-Year Students Who
Have Taken a Remedial Course Since High School
Graduation and Percentage Taking Remedial Courses
in 2003-04 by Type of Institution
Source NPSAS 2004 Undergraduates calculations
by the authors.
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006
19
Number of Postsecondary Institutions Attended by
Students Who Earned a Bachelors Degree with
Average Time-to-Degree, 19992000
6.2 years 5.3 years
Source The College Board, Trends in College
Pricing, 2006, Figure 11a.
Source NCES, 2005, The Road Less Traveled,
NCES-157, Tables 8a, 8b, and 8c (Figure 11a),
Tables 3c and 4c (Figure 11b), based on Beginning
Postsecondary Students (BPS) Longitudinal Study,
1996 and 2001.
20
The Problems
21
Inflation-Adjusted Changes in Tuition and Fees,
Family Income, and Student Aid 1985-86 to
1995-96 and 1995-96 to 2005-06
Source The College Board, Trends in Student Aid,
2006
22
Net Prices Relative to Family Incomes Public
Institutions

• Full-Time Dependent Student Net Tuition Fees
  and Net Cost of Attendance (COA) as a Percentage
  of Family Income,
• 1992-93 and 2003-04

Source NPSAS 1993 Undergraduates, NPSAS 2004
Undergraduates calculations by
the authors.
23
Net Prices Relative to Family Incomes Private
Nonprofit and For-Profit Institutions

• Full-Time Dependent Student Net Tuition Fees
  and Net Cost of Attendance (COA) as a Percentage
  of Family Income,
• 1992-93 and 2003-04

Source NCES, 2004, Digest of Education
Statistics, Table 181.
24
Socioeconomic Status, Math Test Scores, and Level
of Education

• Highest Level of Education in 2000 by Math Test
  Scores and Socioeconomic Status in High School
• (High School Class of 1992)

Source NCES, 2005
25
Distribution of Total Debt Levels of Degree
Recipients, 2003-04
Pct borrowing 91 33 88 62 74
Source NPSAS 2004, Undergraduates calculations
by authors.
Source The College Board, Trends in Student Aid,
2006
26
Median Annual Earnings Relative to Earnings of
High School Graduates, Males and Females Ages
2534, 19752005
Source National Center for Education Statistics
(NCES), 2004, Table 14-1, NCES, 2006, Table 22-1
(based on U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population
Survey) and U.S. Census Bureau, 2006. PINC-03.
Source The College Board, Education Pays, Second
Update, 2006