Regional%20Approaches%20to%20Risk%20Management

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Regional Approaches to Risk Management
Living with our Changing Climate IOCI Seminar and
Workshop 16 August 2005

• Roger N. Jones

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Moving from the tactical to strategic management
of climate
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Linking climate to adaptation over time
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Risk is a measure of the changing ability to cope

• Assess current climate risks
• Climate variability
• How have people learnt to cope?
• Assess future climate risks
• Changing climate hazards
• Response between climate change and
  socio-economic change
• Estimating exposure to risks within relevant
  planning horizons
• Building on historical capacity and developing
  new capacities

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Scoping phase

• If not already established, work with
  stakeholders to develop conceptual model of
  system
• What is the relationship between the hazard, the
  impact and vulnerability?
• Is there a point (linked to climate) where the
  the system ceases to operate in the way you would
  like? critical threshold

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Selecting a method
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Characterisation of hazards
Sector

Climate H
azards

Water

Rainfall amount and variability, flood, drought

Agriculture

Flood, drought, cool/hot extremes,
Storms, hail, humidity

Health

Hot/wet conditions, temperature
extremes, violent storms, floods, crop
and water shortages

Coasts

Storm surges,
wind/wave climates,
pressure extremes, tidal extremes

Biodiversity

Fire, flood, drought, storms



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Whats my baseline water resources
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Abrupt shifts in Australian rainfall18901990
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Future climate - no adaptation
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Future climate with adaptation
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Planning horizons
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Average uncertainty
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P and Ep change over Australia(per degree global
warming)
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P and Ep changes for north-western Australia
Change per degree global warming
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P and Ep changes for south-western Australia
Change per degree global warming
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Hydrological sensitivity and runoff co-efficient
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Simple model of mean flow changes in 2030
preliminary results
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System vulnerability (supply demand)

• Sensitivity to supply changes (climate, land-use,
  fire)
• Level of utilisation
• Demand projections

Current management
Marginal planned change
Substantial change
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(No Transcript)
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Natural hazard-driven approach
Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria

• What risks may we face under this projected
  scenario(s)?
• Analyse possible outcomes from a given climate
  hazard(s) other drivers of change
• An understanding of current/future
  climate-related risks
• Exploratory scenarios of climate with other
  biophysical and socio-economic conditions
• Probabilities of hazard constrained
• Main drivers known
• Chain of consequences understood
• P(Hazard) Consequences
• Largely exploratory 

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Vulnerability-driven approach
Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria

• What is the risk of a specific place, process,
  group or activity being harmed?
• Determine the likelihood of critical threshold
  exceedance
• Understanding of exposure to harm and harmful
  processes
• Characterisation of socio-economic outcomes can
  use climate scenarios or diagnose exposure
  through inverse methods
• Probabilities of hazard not constrained
• Many drivers resulting in vulnerability
• Multiple pathways and feedbacks
• P(Vulnerability)/Hazard (e.g. critical threshold
  exceedance)
• Largely normative

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Resilience-driven approach
Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria

• What advantages can we gain by better
  understanding of our current/future capacities?
• Assess ability to withstand shocks, recover from
  setbacks and manage change.
• Better knowledge of coping mechanisms and
  socio-political institutions, barriers to
  adaptation, increased benefits
• Baseline adaptation, adaptation analogues from
  history, other locations other activities
• Impacts and/or vulnerability understood
• Evidence of successful adaptation
• Benefits thought to be likely
• Barriers to adaptation recognised
• Risks that require treatment

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Policy-driven approach
Approach Method Outcome Scenarios Criteria

• How will our current plans for the future be
  affected by climate change?
• Assess the efficacy of an existing or proposed
  policy under climate change
• Fitter policy under climate change
• Unmanaged climate change impacts and
  vulnerability
• Policy aims are sensitive to climate change
• Desire to mainstream adaptation