Title: Christer Pursiainen Foreign policy analysis
1Christer PursiainenForeign policy analysis
- University of Helsinki, Open University
- 8 May 2003
2For downloading the Power Point presentation,
go to
- http//www.kolumbus.fi/christer.pursiainen
- ? teaching
3Contents
- International Relations Grand Debates
- From political realism
- to foreign policy analysis
- A rational state?
- Bureaucratic/organisational policy?
- The role of cognitive factors?
- Foreign policy change
- Discourses and story-lines
4International Relations Grand Debates
- First debate (1930s-1940s)
- Idealism vs. Political Realism
- Second debate (1950s-1960s)
- Scientism vs. Traditionalism
- Third debate (1970s)
- Realism vs. Liberalism vs. Marxism
- Fourth debate (1980s-2000)
- (Neo)realism vs. Institutionalism vs.
Constructivism - Fifth debate (?)
5International Relations Grand Debates
- explaining or/and understanding?
- explaining from outside by causal explanation
what caused and event or behavior? - understanding from inside in terms of
constitutive rules and intentions
6International Relations Grand Debates
- there are always two stories to tell and they
cannot merely be added together - sometimes one account makes more sense, and
sometimes another - we always need to tackle both understanding and
explaining
7International Relations Grand Debates
- Levels-of-analysis problem
- international system
- nation state
- bureaucracy
- individual
8International Relations Grand Debates
- or agency-structure debate
- structure I
- action I
- structure II
- action II
9From political realism
- politics is governed by objective laws
- the roots of those laws lie in the human nature
- the laws are objective because human nature does
not change in the course of times
10From political realism
- we can distinguish between the economic person,
the religious person, the moral person, the
political person etc. - in order to understand politics, we must study
only the political person - we should study the political actions of a
statesman (as a synonym of a state)
11From political realism
- the theory of political realism is based on the
idea of a rational actor - we should compare the real events to this ideal,
normative picture - the behaviour of a political person in social
context is based on power - maintenance of power strengthening of power
demonstration of power
12From political realism
- power does not mean only physical or military
power, but refers to all kind of control over the
minds and actions of other individuals - power is important, because whatever interests or
goals we have, in order to achieve them in
politics this brings the desire to control the
actions of others
13 to foreign policy analysis
- three generations of foreign policy analysis
(FPA) - 1) the Scientist reaction against the
unscientificrealist paradigm (1950s-60s) - 2) comparative foreign policy approach (1970s)
- 3) a more eclectic, flexiple and diffuse in terms
of approaches, methodologies, research techniques
(1980s--)
14 to foreign policy analysis
- which actor or agent?
- which action principle?
- object of explanation?
- structure of explanation?
15 to foreign policy analysis
Snyder et al. 1954
External setting
Internal setting
Decision-making process
Social structure and behavior
Action
16 to foreign policy analysis
Brecher et al. 1968
Operational environment
external/ levels
internal/ issue areas
Communications
Decision-making elite
Psychological environment attitudional
prism elite images
external/ levels
internal/ issue areas
Formulation of foreign policy decisions by issue
areas
Decision implementation
17A rational state?
- giving preference to a better alternative of
those available when trying to fulfil desires and
objectives - rational choice theory shows us what to do to
achieve our goals, but it does not tell what we
want to achieve
18A rational state?
- in parametrical choices an actor is under
external limitations that are mostly given or
parametrical - the task of an actor is to assess these
restrictions and then decide what to do - in strategic choice situations there is a mutual
dependency of a decision - these situations are studied with game theory,
that is, with a game of two or n-players
19A rational state?
Prisoners dilemma
Y
non-cooperation
cooperation
(x,y)
1,4
3,3
cooperation
4 best
3 second best
X
2 second worst
1 worst
4,1
2,2
non-cooperation
20A rational state?
Chicken
Y
non-cooperation
cooperation
(x,y)
2,4
3,3
cooperation
4 best
3 second best
X
2 second worst
1 worst
4,2
1,1
non-cooperation
21A rational state?
x chooses (between negotiations or a violent
solution/threat)
y chooses
x chooses
alternative outcomes and their utility
functions for x and y
nego
cap
war
cap
war
22A rational state model?
Allisons three models 1971
Black box
23Bureaucratic policy?
Allisons three models 1971
a d e f b c
Black box
24Organisational model?
Allisons three models 1971
a d e f b c
Leaders
Black box
25The role of cognitive factors?
- a human beings ability to process information
- for some reason a person almost always neglects
some of the alternatives, or refuses to perceive
given information - the facts do not say or tell anything by
themselves
26The role of cognitive factors?
- an actor must choose them, put in order and
classify them, to give them meaning, and then act
on the basis of knowledge thus accumulated - adopted attitudes or belief systems can make
decision-makers to close their mind to
controversial information
27The role of cognitive factors?
- faced with critical information a person is
inclined to misunderstand it, to deny it or leave
it totally unnoticed - all information is interpreted whenever possible
so that it supports existing beliefs - when a change is necessary, the first way out is
chosen - post factum rationalisation
28The role of cognitive factors?
- groupthink
- an urge to agree is greater than the urge to find
the best possible solution - after the decision, the risk of breaking the
consensus appears greater than the risk of faulty
decision - strict boundaries to outsiders and opponents
29The role of cognitive factors?
- crisis decision-making
- a threat to essential goals
- time pressure
- a lot of unpredictable factors
30The role of cognitive factors?
- number of misjudgements and miscalculations
increase - aggressive inclinations more frequent
- consideration of relevant facts more selective
31The role of cognitive factors?
- the ability to abstract from details weakens
- more difficult to tolerate complexity
- the difference between irrelevant and essential
disappears
32How to study foreign policy change?
- early studies on foreign policy adaption or
cybernetics - a new interest from the early 1980s onward
- increased focus after the end of the Cold War
33How to study foreign policy change?
- Hermann 1990
- Degrees of foreign policy change
- revision of policy (quantitative)
- programmatic change (qualitative)
- redefining the problem
- reorientation of foreign policy
- sources leader driven bureaucratic advocacy
domestic restructuring external shock
34How to study foreign policy change?
Holsti 1992
- Independent variables
-
- external factors
- domestic factors
- historical and cultural factors
- Intervening variables
-
- policy-makers perceptions and calculations
- policy-making process
- personality factors
- elite attitudes towards external actors
- Dependent variables
-
- intent to restructure foreign policy
35How to study foreign policy change?
Goldmann 1988
policy-making system
conditions
composition
policies
ideas, learning
power-balance
residual factors
stabilizers
36How to study foreign policy change?
- organisational and inividual learning
- feedback reactions
- adaptive reactions (new circumstances)
- simple vs. complex learning
37How to study foreign policy change?
Carlsnaes 1992
Structure
Conditions
Institutional settings
Agency
foreign policy action
Values
Choice
Perceptions
Preferences
38How to study foreign policy change?
Carlsnaes 1992
Structure II
Structure I
Agency
Agency
action I
action II
39Discourses and storylines
Ó Tuathail
Foreign Policy Process
Story-Line Construction
Cultural storehouse
Deliberative Public Arena
Media representations
40For downloading the Power Point presentation,
go to
- http//www.kolumbus.fi/christer.pursiainen
- ? teaching