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Christer Pursiainen Foreign policy analysis

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Title: Christer Pursiainen Foreign policy analysis


1
Christer PursiainenForeign policy analysis
  • University of Helsinki, Open University
  • 8 May 2003

2
For downloading the Power Point presentation,
go to
  • http//www.kolumbus.fi/christer.pursiainen
  • ? teaching

3
Contents
  • International Relations Grand Debates
  • From political realism
  • to foreign policy analysis
  • A rational state?
  • Bureaucratic/organisational policy?
  • The role of cognitive factors?
  • Foreign policy change
  • Discourses and story-lines

4
International Relations Grand Debates
  • First debate (1930s-1940s)
  • Idealism vs. Political Realism
  • Second debate (1950s-1960s)
  • Scientism vs. Traditionalism
  • Third debate (1970s)
  • Realism vs. Liberalism vs. Marxism
  • Fourth debate (1980s-2000)
  • (Neo)realism vs. Institutionalism vs.
    Constructivism
  • Fifth debate (?)

5
International Relations Grand Debates
  • explaining or/and understanding?
  • explaining from outside by causal explanation
    what caused and event or behavior?
  • understanding from inside in terms of
    constitutive rules and intentions

6
International Relations Grand Debates
  • there are always two stories to tell and they
    cannot merely be added together
  • sometimes one account makes more sense, and
    sometimes another
  • we always need to tackle both understanding and
    explaining

7
International Relations Grand Debates
  • Levels-of-analysis problem
  • international system
  • nation state
  • bureaucracy
  • individual

8
International Relations Grand Debates
  • or agency-structure debate
  • structure I
  • action I
  • structure II
  • action II

9
From political realism
  • politics is governed by objective laws
  • the roots of those laws lie in the human nature
  • the laws are objective because human nature does
    not change in the course of times

10
From political realism
  • we can distinguish between the economic person,
    the religious person, the moral person, the
    political person etc.
  • in order to understand politics, we must study
    only the political person
  • we should study the political actions of a
    statesman (as a synonym of a state)

11
From political realism
  • the theory of political realism is based on the
    idea of a rational actor
  • we should compare the real events to this ideal,
    normative picture
  • the behaviour of a political person in social
    context is based on power
  • maintenance of power strengthening of power
    demonstration of power

12
From political realism
  • power does not mean only physical or military
    power, but refers to all kind of control over the
    minds and actions of other individuals
  • power is important, because whatever interests or
    goals we have, in order to achieve them in
    politics this brings the desire to control the
    actions of others

13
to foreign policy analysis
  • three generations of foreign policy analysis
    (FPA)
  • 1) the Scientist reaction against the
    unscientificrealist paradigm (1950s-60s)
  • 2) comparative foreign policy approach (1970s)
  • 3) a more eclectic, flexiple and diffuse in terms
    of approaches, methodologies, research techniques
    (1980s--)

14
to foreign policy analysis
  • which actor or agent?
  • which action principle?
  • object of explanation?
  • structure of explanation?

15
to foreign policy analysis
Snyder et al. 1954
External setting
Internal setting
Decision-making process
Social structure and behavior
Action
16
to foreign policy analysis
Brecher et al. 1968
Operational environment
external/ levels
internal/ issue areas
Communications
Decision-making elite
Psychological environment attitudional
prism elite images
external/ levels
internal/ issue areas
Formulation of foreign policy decisions by issue
areas
Decision implementation
17
A rational state?
  • giving preference to a better alternative of
    those available when trying to fulfil desires and
    objectives
  • rational choice theory shows us what to do to
    achieve our goals, but it does not tell what we
    want to achieve

18
A rational state?
  • in parametrical choices an actor is under
    external limitations that are mostly given or
    parametrical
  • the task of an actor is to assess these
    restrictions and then decide what to do
  • in strategic choice situations there is a mutual
    dependency of a decision
  • these situations are studied with game theory,
    that is, with a game of two or n-players

19
A rational state?
Prisoners dilemma
Y
non-cooperation
cooperation
(x,y)
1,4
3,3
cooperation
4 best
3 second best
X
2 second worst
1 worst
4,1
2,2
non-cooperation
20
A rational state?
Chicken
Y
non-cooperation
cooperation
(x,y)
2,4
3,3
cooperation
4 best
3 second best
X
2 second worst
1 worst
4,2
1,1
non-cooperation
21
A rational state?
x chooses (between negotiations or a violent
solution/threat)
y chooses
x chooses
alternative outcomes and their utility
functions for x and y
nego
cap
war
cap
war
22
A rational state model?
Allisons three models 1971
Black box
23
Bureaucratic policy?
Allisons three models 1971
a d e f b c
Black box
24
Organisational model?
Allisons three models 1971
a d e f b c
Leaders
Black box
25
The role of cognitive factors?
  • a human beings ability to process information
  • for some reason a person almost always neglects
    some of the alternatives, or refuses to perceive
    given information
  • the facts do not say or tell anything by
    themselves

26
The role of cognitive factors?
  • an actor must choose them, put in order and
    classify them, to give them meaning, and then act
    on the basis of knowledge thus accumulated
  • adopted attitudes or belief systems can make
    decision-makers to close their mind to
    controversial information

27
The role of cognitive factors?
  • faced with critical information a person is
    inclined to misunderstand it, to deny it or leave
    it totally unnoticed
  • all information is interpreted whenever possible
    so that it supports existing beliefs
  • when a change is necessary, the first way out is
    chosen
  • post factum rationalisation

28
The role of cognitive factors?
  • groupthink
  • an urge to agree is greater than the urge to find
    the best possible solution
  • after the decision, the risk of breaking the
    consensus appears greater than the risk of faulty
    decision
  • strict boundaries to outsiders and opponents

29
The role of cognitive factors?
  • crisis decision-making
  • a threat to essential goals
  • time pressure
  • a lot of unpredictable factors

30
The role of cognitive factors?
  • number of misjudgements and miscalculations
    increase
  • aggressive inclinations more frequent
  • consideration of relevant facts more selective

31
The role of cognitive factors?
  • the ability to abstract from details weakens
  • more difficult to tolerate complexity
  • the difference between irrelevant and essential
    disappears

32
How to study foreign policy change?
  • early studies on foreign policy adaption or
    cybernetics
  • a new interest from the early 1980s onward
  • increased focus after the end of the Cold War

33
How to study foreign policy change?
  • Hermann 1990
  • Degrees of foreign policy change
  • revision of policy (quantitative)
  • programmatic change (qualitative)
  • redefining the problem
  • reorientation of foreign policy
  • sources leader driven bureaucratic advocacy
    domestic restructuring external shock

34
How to study foreign policy change?
Holsti 1992
  • Independent variables
  • external factors
  • domestic factors
  • historical and cultural factors
  • Intervening variables
  • policy-makers perceptions and calculations
  • policy-making process
  • personality factors
  • elite attitudes towards external actors
  • Dependent variables
  • intent to restructure foreign policy

35
How to study foreign policy change?
Goldmann 1988
policy-making system
conditions
composition
policies
ideas, learning
power-balance
residual factors
stabilizers
36
How to study foreign policy change?
  • organisational and inividual learning
  • feedback reactions
  • adaptive reactions (new circumstances)
  • simple vs. complex learning

37
How to study foreign policy change?
Carlsnaes 1992
Structure
Conditions
Institutional settings
Agency
foreign policy action
Values
Choice
Perceptions
Preferences
38
How to study foreign policy change?
Carlsnaes 1992
Structure II
Structure I
Agency
Agency
action I
action II
39
Discourses and storylines
Ó Tuathail
Foreign Policy Process
Story-Line Construction
Cultural storehouse
Deliberative Public Arena
Media representations
40
For downloading the Power Point presentation,
go to
  • http//www.kolumbus.fi/christer.pursiainen
  • ? teaching
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