SCR 1284 and its implications

1
SCR 1284 and its implications

• Colin Rowat, co-ordinator
• Campaign Against Sanctions on Iraq
• 14 February 2000
• Liberation CLESIP meeting

2
About CASI

• a registered society at the University of
  Cambridge
• narrow humanitarian mandate
• exclusively concerned with the humanitarian
  consequences of sanctions on Iraq
• does not support Saddam Hussein's regime
• does not take a position on
• military sanctions on Iraq
• US/UK bombing of Iraq.

3
Overview

• Context of SCR 1284
• SCR 1284
• Preamble
• A. Unmovic
• B. Kuwaiti claims
• C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF
• D. Sanctions suspension
• Questions
• Conclusions

4
Context search for consensus?

• US/UK bombing (12/98)
• no UN authorisation, dubious motives
• Unscom not allowed back to Iraq
• Panel reports commissioned (1/99)
• Humanitarian report Annex II of S/1999/356
  (30/3/99)
• French proposal (13/1/99) UK/Dutch proposal
• 17/12/99 SCR 1284 passed with 4 abstentions
• (intellectual context these sanctions have
  failed)

5
SCR 1284 Preamble

• commitment to, among other things
• "establishing in the Middle East a zone free from
  weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for
  their delivery and the objective of a global ban
  on chemical weapons
• "sovereignty, territorial integrity and political
  independence of Kuwait, Iraq and the neighbouring
  States
• expressed since SCR 687 (3/4/91) but largely
  ignored

6
SCR 1284 A. Unmovic

• Unmovic Unscom disarmament panel
  recommendations, as appropriate
• greater independence from Member States
  (International Civil Servants subject to Article
  100 of UN Charter)
• gives Unmovic up to 135 days to return to Iraq
• behind schedule (Blixs appointment)
• approving organizational plan may be easy
• getting into Iraq probably harder

7
SCR 1284 B. Kuwaiti claims

• re-iterates Iraqi responsibility to return
  Kuwaiti and third country property and nationals
• Kuwait claims 605 missing persons cases still
  open
• Iraq continues to refuse to co-operate with the
  Tripartite Commission established to address
  these concerns

8
SCR 1284 C. Humanitarian improvement within OFF

• Caveat Regardless of the improvements that
  might be brought about in the implementation of
  the current humanitarian programme the
  magnitude of the humanitarian needs is such that
  they cannot be met within the context of the
  parameters set forth in resolution 986 (1995) and
  resolution 1153 (1998). Humanitarian Panel
  Report

9
Selected measures in section C
10
SCR 1284 D. Sanctions suspension

• intention to suspend sanctions if Iraq
  co-operates in all respects for 120 days
• fundamental objective of the suspension is
  improving the humanitarian situation in Iraq
• suspensions subject to the elaboration of
  effective financial and other operational
  measures
• two fold uncertainty
• co-operate in all respects on undefined work
  plan
• what sort of suspensions?

11
Questions

• will Iraq co-operate?
• France, China and Russia abstained
• regime more stable than in 1991
• 1284 offers regime few carrots but asks it to
  trust US
• will Iraq be back in the news in 2000?
• getting Unmovic in risks tension
• U.S. election year avoid or play tough?
• humanitarian consequences?
• little promise of more money v. lots already in
  account

12
Conclusions

• humanitarian possibilities real but less than
  Panels
• does the FCO have projections for expected
  humanitarian outcomes of 1284. If not, unclear
  that 1284 can be regarded as a serious
  humanitarian initiative.
• sanctions suspension link to GoI co-operation
  reaffirms failed 1991 formula
• failure to take trust building steps (i.e. can
  GoI trust US?) likely to hinder implementation