WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS

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WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS
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WEA in Brief

• Established in 1998 by UNDP, DESA, WEC
• Will serve as input to CSD-9 preparatory process,
  CSD-9 and beyond (Rio 10)
• Two phases
• Editorial phase Collaborative effort to provide
  scientific and technical analysis for the report
  and discussions September 1998 - August 2000
• Consultative and Outreach phase Provide input to
  editorial phase and disseminate findings and
  encourage discussion and debate April 1999 -
  April 2001
• Funding Austria, Norway, Finland, Sweden, the
  Energy Foundation and the United Nations
  Foundation

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WEA Editorial Board

• Chairman
• Jose Goldemberg, Brazil
• Vice-Chairs
• Safiatou Ba-N-Daw, Cote DIvoire
• Anca Popescu, Romania
• Hisham Khatib, Jordan
• Francis Viray, Philippines
• John Baker, UK
• 3Is
• Thomas B. Johansson
• JoAnne Disano/Kui-Nang Mak
• Gerald Doucet/Emad El-Sharkawi

• Convening Lead Authors
• Anca Popescu, Romania
• Hans-Holger Rogner, Austria
• Amulya K.N. Reddy, India
• Kirk Smith, US, John P. Holdren, US
• Hisham Khatib, Jordan
• Hans-Holger Rogner, Austria
• Eberhard Jochem, Germany
• Wim Turkemburg, The Netherlands
• Robert R. Williams, US
• Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Austria
• Dennis Anderson, UK
• Michael Jefferson, UK

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Primary Energy Consumption
Industrialized Countries
Developing Countries
Population 1.34 billion of fossil fuels
81 Energy 6,701 x 106 toe 5.0 toe/capita
Population 4.56 billion of fossil fuels
70 Energy 3,861 x 106 toe 0.85 toe/capita
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Issues related to the present energy system

• Energy approaches affect many important issues
• Social
• Economic
• Environmental and Health
• Security

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Changes in GDP, Population, Primary Energy Use
and Electricity Use in OECD Countries, 1960-1997
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Oil Imports as Share of Export Earnings in
Various Developing Countries, 1985-97
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Energy and Development

• 2 billion people have no access to electricity
  and an additional 2 billion people have access to
  unreliable electricity.
• 2 billion people cook using traditional fuels.

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Energy and Women

• Heavy burden on millions of women and children
• Millions are spending hours a day carrying fuel
  and water
• Millions are being exposed to high levels of
  indoor air pollution leading to premature deaths
• Example The World Health Organization estimates
  that air pollution indoor causes 2.73.0 million
  premature deaths a year, or 56 percent of global
  mortality.

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Environmental Degradation

• Energy activities contribute to indoor air
  pollution, urban air pollution, acidification and
  global warming
• 86 of anthropogenic emissions of sulphur dioxide
• Greenhouse gas emissions 78 of carbon dioxide,
  23 of methane
• A significant fraction of emissions of small
  particulate matter
• Significant fractions of many other environmental
  challenges

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Human Disruption Indexdefined as the ratio of
human-generated flow to the natural (baseline)
flow
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Options to enhance energy supply security

• Avoid over-dependence on imports by encouraging
  greater reliance on local resources
• Increase end-use efficiency,which can also reduce
  dependence on imported energy resources
• Diversity of supply
• Support international cooperation
• Encourage technology transfers
• Increase national and regional strategic reserves

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Towards a more Sustainable Future

• The linkages described lead to a demand for
  change of the present energy system development

• The magnitude of the change required is not small
  
• The challenge is to find a way forward that
  addresses all the issues simultaneously

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Energy Resources

• Conventional oil and gas could last at least
  50-100 years.
• Total fossil fuel resources will last at least
  several hundreds of years
• Renewable energy flows are some 1000 times
  current global energy use

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Technical Options for a more Sustainable Future

• Improved Energy Efficiency - especially at the
  point of end-use in buildings, electric
  appliances, vehicles, and production processes.
• More Renewable Energy such as biomass, wind,
  solar, hydro, and geothermal
• Advanced Energy Technologies
• next generation fossil fuel technologies
• nuclear technologies, if the issues associated
  with nuclear can be resolved.

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Sustainable Energy
Sustainable Energy Energy that is produced and
used in ways that simultaneously support human
development over the long-term in all its social,
economic, and environmental dimensions
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Rural Energy

• Energy for Rural Development
• Provision of clean liquid or gaseous fuels
  for cooking and of electricity for lighting
  and other basic communities at the household
  level
• Provision of liquid fuels and electricity for
  mechanization of agriculture
• Provision of electricity that is sufficiently
  low in cost that it could attract industrial
  activity to rural areas

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Do Sustainable Energy Futures Exist?
Scenario development thought experiments is a
useful tool in evaluating possible combinations
of assumptions that may lead to sustainability

• The middle course B scenario
• Scenario A3
• The ecologically driven scenario C1

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Energy Demand Projections
Primary energy (EJ/year)
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Illustrative Energy Supply Projection
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Scenario indicators
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Sustainable Development Indicators
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Investments in Energy Supply
Issue Mobilization of capital for energy supply
investments

• Investment in energy supply projected at 300-500
  billion per year for the next 20 years, depending
  on path chosen
• Less than 10 of total overall investments

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Policies for Sustainable Energy
An energy future compatible with sustainable
development will not happen by itself, thus
policy change is required, including

• Making markets work better, including mobilizing
  investments
• Focusing on the innovation chain
• Reforming the power sector
• Increasing capacity to support policy and
  institution building, and transfer of technology

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The Innovation Chain

• Research and Development
• Demonstration projects
• Early deployment (cost buy-down)
• Demonstration Widespread dissemination

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Experience curves for photovoltaics, windmills,
and gas turbines
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Policy options cost-buy-down and dissemination
Good ideas for policy implementation are gaining
ground around the world Renewable Portfolio
Standards (RPS) Subsidies with sunset clauses
Concessions Green pricing Retail financing Clean
Development Mechanism
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Increasing Capacity

• Policy support and institution building
• Education and training
• Investment-friendly environments that are
  socially and environmentally responsible
• Technological leap-frogging
• Consumer credits, micro-finance

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Web

• WWWEA on the web
• www.undp.org/seed/eap/Projects/WEA.html

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WORLD ENERGY ASSESSENT MAIN FINDINGS