Day 1

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Day 1 Morning Overall census management
UNECE Workshop on Census Management in SPECA
member countries StatCapCA Training Workshop Nr.1

• Paolo Valente (UNECE)

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Reference training material

• Handbook on Census Management for Population and
  Housing Censuses
• Conference of European Statisticians
  Recommendations for the 2010 Censuses of
  Population and Housing

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Topics covered

• 1. The importance of relevance
• 2. Census planning
• 3. Management structure

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The importance of relevance1.1 Relevance to the
users

• Core statistical objective of a census
• To produce statistics that are relevant to
  data users
• ?Every action must be directed towards producing
  relevant output that meets the needs of users

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The importance of relevance1.1 Relevance to the
users

• For the census to be relevant, it is important
  to consult with census data users, and ensure
  that their needs are carefully considered
• HOWEVER
• There are limits in what information can be
  collected with the census, due to
• 1) Costs (reading, coding, processing, etc.)
• 2) Burden on respondents
• ? Important to select accurately what topics
  should be included in the census form

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The importance of relevance1.1 Relevance to the
users

• 1st step Determine census agencys position
• Broad criteria for selection of census topics
• (a) Is the topic of major national importance?
• (b) Is there a need for data on the topic for
  small groups in the population or for small
  geographic areas?
• (c) Demand on the topic cannot be met by existing
  sources?
• (d) Is the topic suitable for inclusion in the
  census?
• (e) Are there sufficient resources available to
  collect and process the data for that topic?

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The importance of relevance1.1 Relevance to the
users

• 2nd step Prepare an information paper outlining
• The topics planned for inclusion in the census
• The topics planned for exclusion from the census
• Other topics, to assess user demand
• ? Disseminate the information paper as widely as
  possible and using different media

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The importance of relevance1.1 Relevance to the
users

• 3rd step Consult and discuss information paper
  with users
• Different forms of consultation and discussion
  meetings, seminars, internet (email, forums)
• Consultation programme should be targeted at
  different users
• Central government departments and ministries
• Local government authorities
• Providers of public and public services (health,
  police, utilities, etc)
• Academics and researchers
• Market researchers and other professional /
  private sector bodies
• Other bodies or individuals representing the
  economic, social, educational and cultural life
  of the country.

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The importance of relevance1.1 Relevance to the
users

• Consultation should cover not only what topics
  should be included, but also (with selected
  categories)
• Enumeration methodology, possible use of
  sampling
• Wording of questions
• Definitions and classifications
• Planned tabulations
• Geographic boundaries
• Processing
• Edit and imputation
• Confidentiality and disclosure control
• Coverage and data quality
• Dissemination and conditions of use of the data.

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The importance of relevance1.2 Relevance to the
general public

• Not only the census should produce RELEVANT
  data, but the general public should PERCEIVE that
  the census is relevant to themand should be
  supported
• Important role of census communication and
  publicity campaigns. Examples
• Release and publicize data from previous census
• Explain how census data are used for planning
  (building of new schools, hospitals etc.)

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The importance of relevance1.3 Relevance to
overall national strategies

• The census is primarily a STATISTICAL operation,
  however it can also provide opportunities to
  advance other objectives relevant to a country
• Acquire funding for improving and increasing the
  stock of IT equipment within the country
• Provide employment in economically depressed
  areas of the country
• Train a large number of people in tasks such as
  data processing or census collection duties
• Improvement in the countrys mapping
  capabilities, through the development of maps for
  the census.

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The importance of relevance1.4 Relevance to the
National Stat. System

• In addition to the direct use of census data,
  the National Statistical System can benefit in
  different ways from the census. Examples
• Population estimates Census data can be used to
  correct population estimates in the period before
  the census and as a base for the period after the
  census
• Household survey programme Census data can be
  used to design sampling frame and select sampled
  units
• Develop IT infrastructure, mapping capabilities,
  and staff skills to be used in other statistical
  activities.

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2. Census planning2.1 What is census planning

• Census planning is the process linking the
  different phases of the census cycle
• Preparation
• Field operations
• Processing
• Dissemination
• Evaluation
• Census planning is the most critical process to
  the completion of a successful census

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2. Census planning

• Each phase of the census cycle is dependent on a
  preceding phase

• The quality of the output from each phase has a
  direct effect on the success of the next phase

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2. Census planning2.2 Aim of the planning process

• The aim of the planning process is to ensure
  that
• 1. Each phase is properly resourced and organized
• 2. The output of each phase is of sufficient
  quality for all subsequent phases
• 3. All dependencies between the different phases
  are identified
• ? Planning should not remain static but be
  flexible to take into account changes that occur

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2. Census planning

• Important issues to be considered when planning
  a census
• (a) Specifying the role of the census
• (b) The role of Government
• (c) Setting goals
• (d) Developing project plans
• (e) Monitoring project plans
• (f) Developing a budget.

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2. Census planning2.3 The role of the census

• Always remember that
• The census should be considered as part of the
  larger National Statistical Programme
• The prime role of a census is usually to
  provide an accurate count of the total population
  for each of the administrative regions of a
  country.
• The key strength of a census is the ability to
  provide data for small geographic areas and for
  small population groups.
• When data are not required at this level of
  detail, other statistical methodologies more
  cost-effective than censuses should be adopted

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2. Census planning2.3 The role of the census

• and that
• The census is NOT suitable to collect data on
  complex issues consider possibly registers,
  household surveys or sampling in census
  (long/short form)
• For topics covered in past censuses, it should
  be verified whether they are still relevant and
  whether other sources have become available for
  them.

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2. Census planning2.4 The role of Government for
the census

• (a) Providing a legal framework for the census.
• It may cover (varying from country to country)
• - The authority of the census agency to take the
  census
• - The role of other administrations/organizations
  (ministries, municipalities) in census
  taking.
• - Topics to be included in the census
• - The requirements of individuals to provide
  information
• - Provisions about data confidentiality
• - The date of the census
• - Penalties for non-compliance or obstruction
  (rarely invoked)
• ? The legal framework should allow for a great
  degree of operational flexibility for the census
  agency.

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2. Census planning2.4 The role of Government for
the census

• (b) Providing funding for the census.
• Problem The census budget is highly cyclical,
  with a large peak during enumeration and
  processing phases.
• ? It is crucial that census budget is planned
  well in advance and cover all known activities.
• ? Census managers should closely monitor the
  government commitment to the census, to ensure
  that the agreed funds are actually available when
  needed.

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2. Census planning2.4 The role of Government for
the census

• (c) Providing logistical support for the census.
• Support can be provided by government agencies at
  different levels Ministries, Local
  administrations, etc.
• Support may include staff, infrastructures,
  services.
• All agencies providing support should be aware of
  specific requirements of a census.
• Appropriate plans should be prepared and funding
  be secured in advance.

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2. Census planning2.5 Setting goals

• Q. Why setting goals?
• A. To provide a framework within which the
  ongoing management of the census can proceed and
  decisions can be made.
• Without clear goals
• - It is difficult for staff to make decisions and
  take responsibility for those decisions
• - It is easy for the overall census process to
  deviate from what was originally envisaged
• - Decision-making becomes centralized and
  autocratic, causing problems in implementation

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2. Census planning2.5 Setting goals

• First step in setting goals identify
  stakeholders and their requirements. Who are the
  census stakeholders?
• 1) Current or potential USERS of census data,
  including users external and internal to the
  census agency
• 2) Other stakeholders within the census
  programme
• - staff and services involved in the different
  census phases
• - regional offices supporting the census
  fieldwork
• 3) The community
• - Only occasional interest of the public in the
  census
• - Need for continued cooperation for successful
  census
• ? Importance of communication . Focus on
  confidentiality, sensitive questions, time
  required to supply information

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2. Census planning2.5 Setting goals

• Needs and requirements of stakeholders should be
  used to establish the census goals, taking into
  account
• 1) Costs
• 2) Data quality considerations
• 3) Logistical implications
• 4) Need to maintain public cooperation and
  confidence

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2. Census planning2.5 Setting goals

• Census goals generally revolve around
• (a) Topics to be collected
• (b) Confidentiality
• (c) Timeliness of data release
• (d) Data quality
• (e) The nature of the output
• (g) The total cost of the census.
• BUT Goals interact with one another! Ex.
  Trade-off between what topics can be collected
  and costs
• ? State priorities
• Once goals are established, they should be
  communicated to the staff, and appropriate
  strategies should be devised

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2. Census planning2.6 Developing project plans

• The census is a BIG project, which include a
  number of projects dependent on one another.
• ? Need to develop a framework with a hierarchical
  structure
• Projects (ex. Field operations)
• Phases (ex. Field mapping)
• Activities (ex. Enumeration area design)
• Tasks (ex. Prepare enumeration area design
  manual)
• The plan should also include
• Milestones Specific points in time at which key
  outcomes are expected (to measure projects
  progress)

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2. Census planning2.6 Developing project plans

• Project management software can be effectively
  used to develop project plans, commercial or
  developed in-house

• ? In the 2000 census round, 28 ECE countries (2/3
  of reporting countries) used management software
• - 18 countries used commercial software
• - 11 countries developed software in-house
• (Portugal used commercial software as well as
  software developed in-house)
• Source UNECE Survey, 2004

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2. Census planning2.6 Developing project plans

• To develop the framework, all components
  (projects, phases, activities, tasks) must be
  identified at each level
• Topdown approach, but often iterations may be
  needed
• As long as framework develops
• 1. people can be assigned responsibilities, and
• 2. reporting and review arrangements can be
  established
• Need for coordination and communication among
  activities
• For each activity, an Issue table can be prepared
  listing issues to be considered (i.e. timing,
  resources, risk mgmt., goals)

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2. Census planning2.6 Developing project plans

• ? Project plans should also deal with risk
  management
• Which risks? ? All possible events that could
  occur and have a negative impact on the success
  of the census
• Risks with significant likelihood should be
  managed explicitly by developing fully detailed
  plans parallel to the census plan
• Risk management is essential because of the
  importance of the census and the fact that it is
  an infrequent exercise
• ? The success or failure of the census may depend
  on the implementation of the plans associated
  with these risks if they occur

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2. Census planning2.7 Monitoring project plans

• Developing a good census project plan is
  important, but not sufficient!
• ? The project plan must be MONITORED closely, and
  feedback be delivered to all levels of mgmt
• Results should be reviewed on a regular basis
• Most important components to track are
• Time for completing a task
• Resource usage per task
• Cost per task
• Milestones

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2. Census planning2.7 Monitoring project plans

• Useful tool for planning and monitoring the
  Gantt chart
• Example Annex III in Handbook on Census
  Management

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2. Census planning2.7 Monitoring project plans

• All deviations from project schedule, cost and
  resources should be analysed and the impact
  assessed.
• In particular, special attention should be given
  to
• (a) Slippage of critical tasks leading up to
  milestones
• (b) Critically late tasks, indicating that the
  estimated time to complete is later than the
  planned finish date
• (c) An over-commitment of resources in the
  remainder of the project
• (d) Too many tasks appearing to be nearly
  complete (99 complete syndrome)
• Rebaselining If it is estimated that a task
  cannot be completed in the planned time, then the
  task must be extended on the Gantt chart.

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2. Census planning2.8 Census budget

• IMPORTANT Census budget MUST be planned well in
  advance and cover all known activities.
• Take into account that the census budget is
  highly cyclical (peaks during enumeration and
  processing)
• Sufficient resources must be allocated to each
  phase
• Funds allocated and used effectively on planning
  and preparation will result in savings in all
  other phases, namely in enumeration and
  processing operations.

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2. Census planning2.8 Census budget

• The resource needs of the dissemination phase
  need to be realistically assessed.
• ? The users will judge the census on the ability
  to deliver the data on time and in the way desired

? In the 2000 census round, ECE countries spent
on average only 5 of their census budget for
publication, dissemination and documentation ? 23
countries (2/3 of reporting countries) spent less
than 3! Source UNECE Survey, 2004
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2. Census planning2.8 Census budget

• How to prepare the census budget?
• Easiest way Use allocations or expenditures for
  previous census as a base, and correct for
• - Increased costs (ex. salary increases)
• - Decreased costs or efficiency gains (ex. new
  technology)
• - Policy changes
• - Population increase
• Very important to estimate salary costs (largest
  component)
• (For estimating costs for enumerators and data
  processors, see Handbook on Census Management,
  Ch.3 sec.B Ch.4 sec.C)

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2. Census planning2.8 Census budget

• Monitoring the census budget is fundamental
• Monitor regularly (quarterly or even monthly)
  expenditures against funding for each project
• Estimates of expenditures for all years of the
  census cycle should be prepared in advance and
  reviewed yearly
• ? This would allow to identify on time possible
  shortfalls, and take appropriate measures

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2. Census planning2.9 Administrative report

• What is it?
• Its the census historical memory a report
  where all census experiences are recorded
• What is the purpose?To retain as much as
  possible the skills and knowledge acquired in
  developing the census, and use them at the time
  of the next census
• Why is needed?
• Because after census results are released, most
  census staff usually move to other duties

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2. Census planning2.9 Administrative report

• When it should be prepared?
• As soon as the decision to take a census is made!
  ? Evaluation and recording should not be left
  until the end of the census process
• How?
• The structure of the report could be similar to
  the structure of the project plan, but it could
  be modified (group tasks or create sub-tasks when
  appropriate)
• IMPORTANT Keep record of resources used (staff
  years and funds) and of changes to the planned
  schedule of activities (what changes, and why?)

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2. Census planning2.9 Administrative report

• How to use it?
• 1) To plan subsequent censuses or other large
  scale statistical activities (i.e. lessons
  learned)
• 2) To create synergies in the current census
  cycle planning and management tasks
• 3) To transfer knowledge and share experiences
  with other countries
• 4) To provide advice and technical assistance to
  countries that need them (relevant for donors and
  development partners)

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3. Management structure3.1 Generic management
structure

• In most countries the census is conducted by the
  National Statistical Office (NSO)
• ? In this case, the management structure (MS) for
  the census depends on the MS of the NSO
• However, some management issues are specific for
  a project with a long lead time, like the census
• The MS may change over the course of the census
  cycle.
• Ex. In the earliest stage, the MS could be
  composed of a small group of experienced staff
  addressing strategic issues

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3. Management structure3.1 Generic management
structure

• Each phase of the census cycle is represented in
  the MS
• There could be other areas within the NSO that
  will have an input into the census project. For
  example
• information technology
• classifications
• regional offices

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3. Management structure3.2 Top-level management
structure

• Example of generic top-level MS
• Reporting lines
• Flows of advice

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3. Management structure3.2 Top-level management
structure

• Census agency executive officer
• Responsible for the census within the exec.
  structure of NSO
• Has ultimate line management responsibility for
  all aspects of the census
• Takes responsibility for the eventual delivery
  of census goals.
• Usually reports to the NSO executive

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3. Management structure3.2 Top-level management
structure

• Deputy executive officers
• The number dependson specific circumstances and
  size of census project
• Assist the executive officer in respective
  areas of responsibility
• Can be responsible for several of the phases
• Report directly to the executive officer
• Key link in the communications chain

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3. Management structure3.2 Top-level management
structure

• Project managers
• In this structure, a PM has been allocated to
  each phase of the census
• PM are responsible for several project teams
  that will be established for each phase
• They should schedule and monitor all activity of
  project team members
• They should be separately identified in the work
  plan

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3. Management structure3.2 Top-level management
structure

• Project board
• High level advisory body providing advice to the
  executive officer on strategic directions/issues
• Includes representatives of major stakeholders
  in the census programme and other areas within
  the statistical agency (i.e. IT)
• Role particularly important in the early stages
  of census planning and preparation

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3. Management structure3.2 Top-level management
structure

• Advisory committees
• Provide additional expertise and experience to
  the census team
• Responsibility for managing operations rests
  with census managers
• Possible groups - IT review - system user
  review - client advisory group - technical
  advisory groups

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3. Management structure3.3 Project team structure

• The MS can be broken down to represent the
  project teams working for each census phase.
  Example
• To facilitate coordination of activities between
  project teams, it is recommended that they be
  co-located, or that allowance is made for
  communications and meetings

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3. Management structure3.4 Operational phase
management structure

• The operational phase includes
• a) Field operations
• b) Processing
• c) Dissemination
• A different MS is required compared to the
  development phases, because workforces and tasks
  performed are quite different
• ? The generic structure will be expanded for
  these three operational phases

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3. Management structure3.4 Operational phase MS

• Example
• a) Field operations phase
• It will be geographically dispersed
• Depends on resources available
• Not too many levels, to facilitate communication
  and promote responsibility and ownership
• Maximize horizontal communication, to ensure
  consistency of practices
• Particular management action may be required for
  specific pop. groups - ethnic minorities -
  people with some form of disability - nomadic
  groups, etc.