Title: GLOBEC Links to JGOFS Biogeochemistry
1GLOBEC Links to JGOFS Biogeochemistry
Roger Harris Plymouth Marine Laboratory,
UK r.harris_at_pml.ac.uk
2Some SSC quotations programmatically, and in
terms of major activities. two programmes are
quite different .. my first response is that
there are little to no links. objective and
approaches of the two programmes very
different .. attempt to get the two
programmes togetherbut little came of this
3Outline
- Programmatics
- GLOBEC Research Foci
- Regional Programmes
- Links/Gaps/Synthesis
- The Future
4GOALS
- Scientific Goals of JGOFS
- To determine and understand on a global scale the
processes controlling the time-varying fluxes of
carbon and associated biogenic elements in the
ocean and to evaluate the related exchanges with
the atmosphere, sea floor, and continental
boundaries. - To develop a capability to predict on a global
scale the response of oceanic biogeochemical
processes to anthropogenic perturbation, in
particular those related to climate change
5GOALS
Primary goal for GLOBEC To advance our
understanding of the structure and functioning of
the global ocean ecosystem, its major subsystems,
and its response to physical forcing so that a
capability can be developed to forecast the
responses of the marine ecosystem to global
change.
6Fig 4. GLOBEC Science Plan, 1997
(WCRP WOCE,CLIVAR)
Ocean Physics
Marine ecosystems
Climate change
(Fluxes)
(Structure)
Food webs
Energy flow
JGOFS
GLOBEC
CO2/NO3/DMSP
Diversity
(Feed back)
(Impact)
LOICZ
(Coastal ocean ecosystems)
7TIMELINES
5 JGOFS Science Plan
1990
JGOFS Reports 1-4
9 JGOFS Implementation Plan (IGBP report 23)
1991
2003 Open Science meeting
9 GLOBEC Science Plan (IGBP Report 40)
1997
GLOBEC reports 1-8
13 GLOBEC Implementation plan (IGBP report 47)
1999
GLOBEC ends
1980
1990
2000
2010
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9GLOBEC S.S.C.
PICES- Climate Change and Carrying Capacity
FOCUS 1 WG Retrospective Analysis
Data Management
Capacity Building
FOCUS 2 WG Process Studies
ICES- Cod and Climate Change
GLOBEC IPO
FOCUS 3 WG Prediction and Modelling
Regional Programmes
Research Foci
Southern Ocean GLOBEC
Sponsor and International liaison
Scientific Networking
Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)
FOCUS 4 WG Feedback from Ecosystem Changes
National Programmes
Benefit, Black Sea, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,
France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal,
United States, United Kingdom
10Focus 1 Retrospective Analyses and Time Series
Studies
- Preservation of Existing Long Time Series Studies
and Data - Analyses of Existing Retrospective Data
- Creation of New, Retrospective, Data Sets
- Development of New Data Sets for Future
Comparisons
Paleo Reconstructions
(T.Baumgartner)
11Basin-scale monitoring
12Focus 2 Process Studies
- Research on Life Histories and Trophodynamics and
their Modelling in Ecosystems - Identification and Understanding of Multiscale
Physical -Biological Interactions - Responses of Marine Ecosystems to Fishing and
Species Introductions
USGLOBEC Georges Bank
13Physical Processes
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Depth (m)
1000
10
Wind (m s-1)
600
Total Flux (mg m-2 d-1)
700
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Day of the year
Calanoides carinatus C-V
Composite showing the vertical distribution of
zooplankter Calanoides carinatus, the
upwelling-favorable winds and total mass flux as
observed in the Arabian Sea. Modified with the
help of Peter Lane, after S. L. Smith (2000).
Understanding the Arabian Sea, Deep-Sea Research
II, 48(6-7), 1385-1402.
14Trophic groups off Vancouver Island coast can be
distinguished by comparison of essential fatty
acids
Source R. Veefkind. Ph.D. Thesis, U.Victoria
15FOCUS 3 Predictive and Modelling Capabilities
- Design and Testing of Relevant Sampling and
Observational Systems - Develop Relevant Modelling Capabilities
- Development of Coupled Modelling-Observational
Capabilities and Applications
Cabell Davis, WHOI
16Simple models to complex models
http//www.soc.soton.ac.uk/GDD/bio/Carbon_Cycle/ma
in_page_frame.html Kishi et al. 2000
17FOCUS 4 Feedback from Changes in Marine
Ecosystem Structure
- Ecosystem-Climate Interactions on Multiple Scales
and their Influences on Basic Biological
Processes throughout the Food Web - Earth System Impacts from Changes in Marine
Ecosystems - Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems
Sources 1950-1990 Csirke et al. 1992
1991-1996 INEI 1997 1997-1999 FEO 1999 2000
IMARPE 2001.
18JGOFS and GLOBEC REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
ICES-GLOBEC Cod and Climate
PICES-GLOBEC Subarctic Pacific
North Pacific
North Atlantic Bloom Experiment
Indian Ocean
Small Pelagic Fishes And Climate Change (SPACC)
Equatorial Pacific
Equatorial Pacific
Southern Ocean GLOBEC
Southern Ocean
GLOBEC Programmes have concentrated on shelf
ecosystems
19GLOBEC Southern Ocean Programme
- Focused on understanding how physical forces
influence population dynamics and predator-prey
interactions - Antarctic Krill
- Habitat, prey and predators
- Special study of the little-known overwintering
strategies of krill, zooplankton and top predators
Krill and Sea Ice Extent
20Upwelling Systems Small Pelagic Fishes and
Climate Change (SPACC)
- Linkages between the physical forces that control
growth of small pelagic fish populations - Globally distributed
- Constitute over a third of the global marine fish
catch - Short plankton based food chains
- Great swings in abundance
- Global teleconnections
- Rich retrospective data resources
- The goal is to forecast how changes in the
patterns and intensity of these forces will alter
the productivity of small pelagic fish
populations.
21Synchronies in small pelagic fish populations
.
Nambia.
Sardine
Mexico.
Sardine
-
1
1
Peru.
Anchovy
Peru.
.
Sardine
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
10
20
30
40
50
10
20
30
40
50
Anchovy
Mexico.
Japan.
Sardine
1
1
Anchovy
Japan.
Anchovy
Japan.
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
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30
40
50
10
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40
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22North Atlantic ICES GLOBEC Cod and Climate
Change programme (CCC)
- ICES and GLOBEC study to advance the
understanding and prediction of variability in
fish stocks - Cod is the target species because its biology is
well-known and supported by ample data bases - It has a pan-Atlantic distribution
- Its abundance and distribution have been shown
to be sensitive to specific past examples of
climate variability.
23Target Species Calanus
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
SHELF SEAS
Variability in the populations of the ocean basin
is impressed upon shelf regions.
Climate forcing of ocean circulation
M.Heath
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25Shifts in copepod distributions in the North
Atlantic Warm-water species have extended
their distribution northward by more than 10 of
latitude, while cold-water species have decreased
in number and extension.
(Beaugrand et al., Science, 2002)
26North Pacific PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and
Carrying Capacity (CCCC)
- The North Pacific Marine Sciences Organisation
and GLOBEC collaborate in the temperate and
subarctic North Pacific Ocean - Particular emphasis on on coupling between
atmospheric and oceanographic processes - Impact on the production of marine living
resources - Regime shifts
- Biology of salmonid stocks
27NORTH PACIFIC REGIME SHIFTS
Hare and Mantua
28STATION ALOHA
D. Karl
29The Oceanic Fisheries and Climate Change Project
OFCCP GLOBEC
Objective to investigate the effect of climate
change on the productivity and distribution of
oceanic tuna stocks and fisheries with the goal
of predicting short- to long-term changes and
impacts related to climate variability and global
warming.
Global primary production with a 2x CO2 (Bopp et
al, 2001)
Bopp L., P. Monfray, O. Aumont, J.C. Orr, G.
Madec, J.L. Dufresne, S. Valcke, L. Terray, and
H. LeTreut (2001) Potential impact of climate
change on marine export production Global
Biogeochem. Cycles., Vol. 15 , No. 1 , p. 81
P Lehodey
30Summary What are the links (if any)?
- Commitment to Process Studies, Time Series and
Modelling for synthesis and integration - PICES CCCC Nemuro model and Iron fertilisation
- Southern Ocean studies
- Links through GAIM
- Data assimilation for biological models
- Data managment
31Summary JGOFS work influential for GLOBEC
- Strong primary production and microbial base of
JGOFS - Rigorous modelling approach
- Time-series approach (HOT and BATS)
- OFCCP in the Pacific -coupled biogeochemical and
higher trophic level models - Concept of surprises
32Summary GLOBEC studies relevant to JGOFS
- Coupled higher trophic level biogeochemical
models - Mesoscale processes and plankton community
dynamics - Importance of life-stages the need to go beyond
functional groups
33IGBP Phase I Marine Programmes Compared
Steele, J, 1998, GLOBEC Special Issue, Fisheries
Oceanography
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35OCEANS TOPICS for potential collaboration with
GLOBEC
- Relationships between biodiversity, structure,
function and stability of marine ecosystems - What is the role of key species or key functional
groups in marine food web stability? - How does marine food web structure and function
impact organic matter fluxes? - What are the key biological processes controlling
food web structure and function in the
mesopelagic ecosystem?
36- CONCLUSIONS
- Significant mutually beneficial links
- More holistic view of climate change impacts on
ocean systems would have been possible if JGOFS
and GLOBEC had been implemented in a coordinated
effort (in time and space) - The challenge for the next phase in global ocean
research under IGBP will be to ensure such full
integration