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Title: GLOBEC Links to JGOFS Biogeochemistry


1
GLOBEC Links to JGOFS Biogeochemistry
Roger Harris Plymouth Marine Laboratory,
UK r.harris_at_pml.ac.uk
2
Some SSC quotations programmatically, and in
terms of major activities. two programmes are
quite different .. my first response is that
there are little to no links. objective and
approaches of the two programmes very
different .. attempt to get the two
programmes togetherbut little came of this
3
Outline
  • Programmatics
  • GLOBEC Research Foci
  • Regional Programmes
  • Links/Gaps/Synthesis
  • The Future

4
GOALS
  • Scientific Goals of JGOFS
  • To determine and understand on a global scale the
    processes controlling the time-varying fluxes of
    carbon and associated biogenic elements in the
    ocean and to evaluate the related exchanges with
    the atmosphere, sea floor, and continental
    boundaries.
  • To develop a capability to predict on a global
    scale the response of oceanic biogeochemical
    processes to anthropogenic perturbation, in
    particular those related to climate change

5
GOALS
Primary goal for GLOBEC To advance our
understanding of the structure and functioning of
the global ocean ecosystem, its major subsystems,
and its response to physical forcing so that a
capability can be developed to forecast the
responses of the marine ecosystem to global
change.
6
Fig 4. GLOBEC Science Plan, 1997
(WCRP WOCE,CLIVAR)
Ocean Physics
Marine ecosystems
Climate change
(Fluxes)
(Structure)
Food webs
Energy flow
JGOFS
GLOBEC
CO2/NO3/DMSP
Diversity
(Feed back)
(Impact)
LOICZ
(Coastal ocean ecosystems)
7
TIMELINES
5 JGOFS Science Plan
1990
JGOFS Reports 1-4
9 JGOFS Implementation Plan (IGBP report 23)
1991
2003 Open Science meeting
9 GLOBEC Science Plan (IGBP Report 40)
1997
GLOBEC reports 1-8
13 GLOBEC Implementation plan (IGBP report 47)
1999
GLOBEC ends
1980
1990
2000
2010
8
(No Transcript)
9
GLOBEC S.S.C.
PICES- Climate Change and Carrying Capacity
FOCUS 1 WG Retrospective Analysis
Data Management
Capacity Building
FOCUS 2 WG Process Studies
ICES- Cod and Climate Change
GLOBEC IPO
FOCUS 3 WG Prediction and Modelling
Regional Programmes
Research Foci
Southern Ocean GLOBEC
Sponsor and International liaison
Scientific Networking
Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)
FOCUS 4 WG Feedback from Ecosystem Changes
National Programmes
Benefit, Black Sea, Brazil, Canada, Chile, China,
France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Portugal,
United States, United Kingdom
10
Focus 1 Retrospective Analyses and Time Series
Studies
  • Preservation of Existing Long Time Series Studies
    and Data
  • Analyses of Existing Retrospective Data
  • Creation of New, Retrospective, Data Sets
  • Development of New Data Sets for Future
    Comparisons

Paleo Reconstructions
(T.Baumgartner)
11
Basin-scale monitoring
12
Focus 2 Process Studies
  • Research on Life Histories and Trophodynamics and
    their Modelling in Ecosystems
  • Identification and Understanding of Multiscale
    Physical -Biological Interactions
  • Responses of Marine Ecosystems to Fishing and
    Species Introductions

USGLOBEC Georges Bank
13
Physical Processes
J
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0
2000
20
100
200
1500
300
15
400
500
Depth (m)
1000
10
Wind (m s-1)
600
Total Flux (mg m-2 d-1)
700
500
5
800
900
1000
0
0
30
60
90
120
150
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210
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Day of the year
Calanoides carinatus C-V
Composite showing the vertical distribution of
zooplankter Calanoides carinatus, the
upwelling-favorable winds and total mass flux as
observed in the Arabian Sea. Modified with the
help of Peter Lane, after S. L. Smith (2000).
Understanding the Arabian Sea, Deep-Sea Research
II, 48(6-7), 1385-1402.
14
Trophic groups off Vancouver Island coast can be
distinguished by comparison of essential fatty
acids
Source R. Veefkind. Ph.D. Thesis, U.Victoria
15
FOCUS 3 Predictive and Modelling Capabilities
  • Design and Testing of Relevant Sampling and
    Observational Systems
  • Develop Relevant Modelling Capabilities
  • Development of Coupled Modelling-Observational
    Capabilities and Applications

Cabell Davis, WHOI
16
Simple models to complex models
http//www.soc.soton.ac.uk/GDD/bio/Carbon_Cycle/ma
in_page_frame.html Kishi et al. 2000
17
FOCUS 4 Feedback from Changes in Marine
Ecosystem Structure
  • Ecosystem-Climate Interactions on Multiple Scales
    and their Influences on Basic Biological
    Processes throughout the Food Web
  • Earth System Impacts from Changes in Marine
    Ecosystems
  • Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems

Sources 1950-1990 Csirke et al. 1992
1991-1996 INEI 1997 1997-1999 FEO 1999 2000
IMARPE 2001.
18
JGOFS and GLOBEC REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
ICES-GLOBEC Cod and Climate
PICES-GLOBEC Subarctic Pacific
North Pacific
North Atlantic Bloom Experiment
Indian Ocean
Small Pelagic Fishes And Climate Change (SPACC)
Equatorial Pacific
Equatorial Pacific
Southern Ocean GLOBEC
Southern Ocean
GLOBEC Programmes have concentrated on shelf
ecosystems
19
GLOBEC Southern Ocean Programme
  • Focused on understanding how physical forces
    influence population dynamics and predator-prey
    interactions
  • Antarctic Krill
  • Habitat, prey and predators
  • Special study of the little-known overwintering
    strategies of krill, zooplankton and top predators

Krill and Sea Ice Extent
20
Upwelling Systems Small Pelagic Fishes and
Climate Change (SPACC)
  • Linkages between the physical forces that control
    growth of small pelagic fish populations
  • Globally distributed
  • Constitute over a third of the global marine fish
    catch
  • Short plankton based food chains
  • Great swings in abundance
  • Global teleconnections
  • Rich retrospective data resources
  • The goal is to forecast how changes in the
    patterns and intensity of these forces will alter
    the productivity of small pelagic fish
    populations.

21
Synchronies in small pelagic fish populations
.
Nambia.
Sardine
Mexico.
Sardine
-
1
1
Peru.
Anchovy
Peru.
.
Sardine
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
10
20
30
40
50
10
20
30
40
50
Anchovy
Mexico.
Japan.
Sardine
1
1
Anchovy
Japan.
Anchovy
Japan.
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
10
20
30
40
50
10
20
30
40
50
22
North Atlantic ICES GLOBEC Cod and Climate
Change programme (CCC)
  • ICES and GLOBEC study to advance the
    understanding and prediction of variability in
    fish stocks
  • Cod is the target species because its biology is
    well-known and supported by ample data bases
  • It has a pan-Atlantic distribution
  • Its abundance and distribution have been shown
    to be sensitive to specific past examples of
    climate variability.

23
Target Species Calanus
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN
SHELF SEAS
Variability in the populations of the ocean basin
is impressed upon shelf regions.
Climate forcing of ocean circulation
M.Heath
24
(No Transcript)
25
Shifts in copepod distributions in the North
Atlantic Warm-water species have extended
their distribution northward by more than 10 of
latitude, while cold-water species have decreased
in number and extension.
(Beaugrand et al., Science, 2002)
26
North Pacific PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and
Carrying Capacity (CCCC)
  • The North Pacific Marine Sciences Organisation
    and GLOBEC collaborate in the temperate and
    subarctic North Pacific Ocean
  • Particular emphasis on on coupling between
    atmospheric and oceanographic processes
  • Impact on the production of marine living
    resources
  • Regime shifts
  • Biology of salmonid stocks

27
NORTH PACIFIC REGIME SHIFTS
Hare and Mantua
28
STATION ALOHA
D. Karl
29
The Oceanic Fisheries and Climate Change Project
OFCCP GLOBEC
Objective to investigate the effect of climate
change on the productivity and distribution of
oceanic tuna stocks and fisheries with the goal
of predicting short- to long-term changes and
impacts related to climate variability and global
warming.
Global primary production with a 2x CO2 (Bopp et
al, 2001)
Bopp L., P. Monfray, O. Aumont, J.C. Orr, G.
Madec, J.L. Dufresne, S. Valcke, L. Terray, and
H. LeTreut (2001) Potential impact of climate
change on marine export production Global
Biogeochem. Cycles., Vol. 15 , No. 1 , p. 81
P Lehodey
30
Summary What are the links (if any)?
  • Commitment to Process Studies, Time Series and
    Modelling for synthesis and integration
  • PICES CCCC Nemuro model and Iron fertilisation
  • Southern Ocean studies
  • Links through GAIM
  • Data assimilation for biological models
  • Data managment

31
Summary JGOFS work influential for GLOBEC
  • Strong primary production and microbial base of
    JGOFS
  • Rigorous modelling approach
  • Time-series approach (HOT and BATS)
  • OFCCP in the Pacific -coupled biogeochemical and
    higher trophic level models
  • Concept of surprises

32
Summary GLOBEC studies relevant to JGOFS
  • Coupled higher trophic level biogeochemical
    models
  • Mesoscale processes and plankton community
    dynamics
  • Importance of life-stages the need to go beyond
    functional groups

33
IGBP Phase I Marine Programmes Compared
Steele, J, 1998, GLOBEC Special Issue, Fisheries
Oceanography
34
(No Transcript)
35
OCEANS TOPICS for potential collaboration with
GLOBEC
  • Relationships between biodiversity, structure,
    function and stability of marine ecosystems
  • What is the role of key species or key functional
    groups in marine food web stability?
  • How does marine food web structure and function
    impact organic matter fluxes?
  • What are the key biological processes controlling
    food web structure and function in the
    mesopelagic ecosystem?

36
  • CONCLUSIONS
  • Significant mutually beneficial links
  • More holistic view of climate change impacts on
    ocean systems would have been possible if JGOFS
    and GLOBEC had been implemented in a coordinated
    effort (in time and space)
  • The challenge for the next phase in global ocean
    research under IGBP will be to ensure such full
    integration
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