World Energy Market Prospectives to 2050

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World Energy Market Prospectives to 2050
Model-based scenario analysis Energy
Foresight Symposium Bergen, April 4th
2006 Antonio Soria European Commission, DG JRC
- IPTS http//www.jrc.cec.eu.int
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Contents

• 0. Scope of the activity
• 1. Methodology the POLES model
• 2. Drivers and constraints to world energy
  development
• 3. Results of the reference case up to 2050
  World Europe
• Primary energy consumption
• Electricity production
• Energy-related CO2 emissions
• Evolution of security of supply indicators
• Key messages from the reference
• Hydrogen scenarios
• Key messages from the hydrogen scenarios

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0. Scope

• The World Energy Technology Outlook project. A DG
  RTD-funded project to address long-term global
  energy trends and GHG emissions.
• To provide policy-makers at EU level with a
  50-year ahead vision on the future structure of
  world energy markets, GHG emission trends and
  resource exploitation patterns under alternative
  hypothesis
• Several scenarios are systematically generated as
  variants of the baseline projection, assuming
  alternative policy options and different
  hypotheses on
• Economic growth
• Resource availability
• Technology development

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1. Methodology POLES model

• Reference scenario developed and quantified with
  POLES.
• Model jointly developed by LEPII-EPE (F), IPTS
  (EC) and Enerdata (F)
• Together with PRIMES and GEM-E3, a reference EC
  policy analysis tool, extensively used to address
  the long-term evolution of energy markets at
  global level (GHG emissions, security of energy
  supply and energy technology)
• Time horizon extended to 2050
• Calculation of energy balances for 32 countries
  and 18 world regions
• Disaggregation into 15 energy demand sectors, 12
  new/renewable technologies and 12 power
  generation technologies
• Simulation of oil and gas discoveries and
  reserves for main producers
• International energy prices and markets are
  endogenous

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2. Drivers and constraints to world energy
development (1)

• Population
• World population is expected to grow to 8.9
  Billion in 2050, with a slowdown that anticipates
  stabilisation in the second half of the century
• Economic growth (source CEPII (F))
• Economic growth slows down, from 3.5 /yr in
  1990-2010, to 2.9/yr in 2010-2030 and 2.2 /yr
  in 2030-2050
• In 2050 total world GDP represents four times the
  current GDP
• Industrialised regions converge towards a less
  than 2yr growth in the very long run, Asian
  economic growth significantly slows down, while
  growth accelerates in Africa and the Middle-East

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2.Drivers and constraints to world energy
development (2)

• World oil production
• Identified reserves amount to 1000 Gbl ( oil
  cumulative prod. today)
• Progress in recovery rate URR from 2600 Gbl
  today to 3500 Gbl in 2050
• Conventional production peaks to about 100 Mbl/d
  by 2025)
• Non-conventional oil resources deploy mainly in
  the western hemisphere

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3. Reference case - Definition

• Accounts for minimum climate policies,
  differentiated by world regions (exogenous carbon
  value)
• Simulates a relatively constrained access to the
  oil resources in the Middle-East
• Higher endogenous oil prices

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3. Carbon emission projections
Reference Carbon value around 50 Euro/tCO2 in
2050 Carbon constrained case Carbon value around
200 Euro/tCO2
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3. Reference case - Primary energy consumption

• World
• 2050 22 Gtoe (10 Gtoe in 2001)
• Oil Gas 6 4 Gtoe resp.
• RES Nuclear 6 Gtoe
• Coal 6 Gtoe (gt ¼)

• Europe
• 2050 2.6 Gtoe (1.9 Gtoe in 2001)
• Oil Gas 0.6 0.5 Gtoe each
• RES Nuclear 1 Gtoe
• Coal 0.5 Gtoe (1/5)

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3. Reference case Electricity production

• World
• Increase 2.8/year on average
• Share of non-fossil electricity decrease up to
  2020 followed by a significant increase (50 in
  2050)

• Europe
• Increase 1.8/year on average
• Share of non-fossil electricity would reach 60
  in 2050

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3. Reference case Renewable electricity

• World
• Increase 5/year on average in 2001-2030,
  accelerates to 5.7/year in 2030-2050
• Wind potential expanding, and significant
  emergence of solar power

• Europe
• Increase 4/year on average in 2001-2030,
  accelerating to 5.3 year in 2030-2050
• Wind potential exhausted after 2040

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3. Reference case World oil markets
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3. Reference case World gas markets
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3. Reference case European gas suppliers

• Gas supply to European market
• Long-term domestic supply Norway
• Imports from Northern Africa deploy and then
  contract
• Long-term swing supplier Russia

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3. Reference case European primary mix and
imports

• Primary energy external dependency
• 2000 38 of primary energy
• 2025 Deteriorates to 45 of primary energy
  consumption (mainly because of gas imports)
• 2050 Improves back to 40 (due to domestic
  primary electricity growth)

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3. Reference case the European energy bill

• Fossil energy imports
• 2001-2030 oil bill increases by 300
• 2001-2030 gas bill increases by 400

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4. Key messages from the Reference

• By 2050 the size of the world energy system and
  corresponding CO2 emissions will be twice that of
  today
• Because of the peak oil and peak gas and in
  spite of the marked progresses of RES and nuclear
  energy after 2030
• Coal comes to be the swing primary source in the
  world energy balance
• Which aggravates the CO2 emissions problem
• However, contrasted situation in Europe
• The interaction of the drivers and constraints
  involves many structural changes, in particular
  after 2030. These are mostly related to
• The necessity of closing the world energy
  balance in the long run
• Solve the bottleneck of the oil-based transport
  sector of modern societies
• The European vulnerability to supply is a crucial
  issue, for which renewables and nuclear may prove
  very cost/effective

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5. Hydrogen scenarios definition and scope

• The WETO-H2 scenario analysis aims at
• Identifying and quantifying technological
  breakthroughs that may lead to a significant
  market penetration of hydrogen as an energy
  carrier at European and global level by 2050.
• Providing a harmonised and coherent view of the
  possible emergence pathway of a hydrogen-based
  energy system, including contrasted hypothesis on
  resource availability and technology deployment.
• Assessing the implications of GHG emission
  reduction policies on the development of hydrogen
  as energy carrier, and viceversa.

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5. Hydrogen scenarios definition and scope

• The main Hydrogen-scenario accelerated
  penetration of Hydrogen in energy markets
  combined with the same ambitious carbon abatement
  policies as in the WETO carbon constrained
  scenario (Carbon value rising to 200 Euro/tCO2 by
  2050). It is referred to as CCH2.
• A second hydrogen scenario was also run (H2),
  with the same technological assumptions that CCH2
  but with the mild carbon emission restrictions
  imposed in the reference projection (Carbon value
  to 50 Euro/tCO2 by 2050).
• It assumes an accelerated competitiveness of
  hydrogen-related technologies, with a specialised
  view on
• The fossil-fuel-based hydrogen. (gasification,
  new thermodynamic cycles)
• The electricity-based hydrogen production routes
  (nuclear, renewable electricity)

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5. Hydrogen scenarios transportation technologies

• 11 generic car technologies are represented
• Light Gasoline
• Large Gasoline
• Light Diesel
• Large Diesel
• Electric vehicle
• Fuel cell H2-fuelled
• Hybrid-gasoline fuelled
• Hybrid-diesel fuelled
• Hybrid-Fuel cell H2 fuelled
• Internal Combustion Engine H2 fuelled
• Internal Combustion Engine Natural Gas-fuelled

• A dedicated module representing the behaviour of
  the road passenger transport demand has been
  developed.
• Three categories of users
• Urban use (lt 10.000 kms/year)
• Normal use ( 20.000 kms/year)
• Intensive use (gt 40.000 kms/year)

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5. Two pathways towards hydrogen economy
Pathway 1 Primary based on fossil fuel
reforming/gasification. Pathway 2 Primary based
on carbon-free hydrolysis. Those assumptions
match (at different technology improvement
speeds) the forecasts/targets of the European
Fuel Cell Hydrogen Technology Platform
EFCHTP
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5. World hydrogen production (Reference H2
cases)
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5. World passenger car fleet (Reference
H2 cases)
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5. World road transport consumption (Reference
H2 cases)
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5. Conclusions for the Hydrogen Scenarios

• A optimistic H2 energy technology hypothesis
  (IPHE and EHFCTP) yields a significant
  penetration of H2, mainly in the transportation
  sector (5 of primary energy demand)
• Under appropriate policy setup, the deployment of
  H2 seems to be entirely compatible with GHG
  reductions around the UNFCCC B2 scenarios.
• The short-term fossil-fuelled-based pathway
  towards hydrogen would be partially penalised in
  case of severe carbon emission constrains. In the
  long-run, H2 production based on primary,
  carbon-free electricity seems to prevail.
• Hydrogen as a transportation fuel would allow
  growth in the energy transportation demand, whose
  effects in terms of welfare and GDP gain seem not
  negligible.
• Technological bottlenecks are seemingly more
  severe in the consumption and distribution side
  that in the production side.

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