NetEvents Hong Kong

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NetEvents Hong Kong
Saturday, December 2 The Race to the Home FTTH
Technology Options Hosted by Graham
FinnieSenior Analyst finnie_at_heavyreading.com
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Panelists

• Charles Kenmore, President and CEO, Anda Networks
• Umesh Kukreja, Director of Marketing, Atrica
• John Wuu, President, Immenstar
• Michael Howard, Principal Analyst Co-Founder,
  Infonetics Research

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What is FTTx?
Cost Issues Vary, And Depend On Objectives
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Setting the Context Catalysts for FTTH
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Bandwidth Drives The Market
The blue line in the chart represents a typical
high-speed connection from 1990 onwards,
beginning at 1.2 kbit/s, reaching 56 kbit/s in
1996, and rising to around 2 Mbit/sin 2005. The
green line extrapolates the historical speed of
growth (at a factor of 2.29 per year) through the
next ten years. The red line assumes that the
speed of growth has been ratcheted up to a factor
of 3.0 per year since 2004, for a variety of
supply and demand reasons.
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Some Key Bandwidth Pressures

• How much HDTV and at what speed?
• About 8 Mbit/s per stream, depending on
  assumptions probably MPEG 4
• Only one stream per household in most cases
• New kinds of HDTV coming
• How many concurrent streams of video per
  household?
• Maximum of three but one or two may be enough
  initially, especially in some territories
  average household 2 or 3
• Download file sizes and download times
• Gbyte files
• New games and games consoles
• Xbox 360, PS3, Nintento Revolution
• 3D gaming
• Online distribution of games (very large files!)
• How much upstream bandwidth?
• High-quality personal video sourced from digital
  cameras camcorders uploads, streaming.
  Blogging.
• Continuing rise of all kinds of P2P
• Unexpectedly rapid growth in upstream needs?

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Some Equipment Cost Estimates
Source Heavy Reading report, FTTH Worldwide
Market Technology Forecast, 2006-2011, June 2006
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Key FTTH Technologies
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Active vs Passive Approaches
Pros and Cons of Key Technologies
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PONs to Dominate..?
Source Heavy Reading report, FTTH Worldwide
Market Technology Forecast, 2006-2011, June
2006
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Key Questions

• Will the marked differences in technology by
  region persist and for how long?
• Will GPON play a role in Asia in particular, in
  China or Japan?
• Will WDM takes PONs into the next decade or
  remain confined to Korea?
• How do service packaging and underlying consumer
  demand affect technology choices?
• Is the choice affected by local issues such as
  housing, construction issues and so on?
• Are costs of the different technologies shifting
  relative to each other?

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About Us

• Light Reading
• http//www.lightreading.com
• Dominant English-language Website covering
  telecom
• Heavy Reading
• http//www.heavyreading.com
• Paid research consultancy