A Changing United States

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A Changing United States

• What the census shows

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A popular-style presentation of census history
and data
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Barbara Everitt Bryant

• Research Scientist,
• University of Michigan Business School
• Director, Bureau of the Census 1989 - 1993

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THE CONSTITUTION
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Article 1 Section 2

• Representatives and direct Taxes shall be
  apportioned among the several States which may be
  included in this Union, according to their
  respective numbersThe actual Enumeration shall
  be made within three Years after the first
  meeting of the Congress of the United States, and
  within every subsequent Term of ten years, in
  such Manner as they shall by Law direct.

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It was put in the Constitution to

• Divide up taxes among the states (this was
  discontinued after War of 1812)
• Reapportion House of Representatives between the
  states

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Other Uses of Census Data

• Redistrictingdrawing boundaries for
  Congressional, legislative, etc. districts
• Distribution of federal funds
• Site location
• Marketing
• Program needs planning
• Demographic change research

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The Law Title 13 U.S. Code

• Delegates to Secretary of Commerce, then Census
  Director
• Guarantees individual privacy
• Supreme Court has interpreted cant use
  statistical sampling for apportionment, probably
  OK for other uses of census data

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The census is controversial

• It moves power Congressional reapportionment
  Congressional, state legislative redistricting
  redistricting of many elective bodies--city
  councils, school boards, etc.
• It moves money Over 100 federal programs that
  allocate 180 billion/year have census counts in
  some part of formulae

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Three things people fight about

• Money
• Power
• Sex
• The census measures them all

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• Census creates winners and losers
• 1860 Slave vs Free States
• 1870 Effect of 14th Amendment former slaves now
  full persons
• 1911 Size of Congress fixed at 435
• 1920 Rural vs Urban
• 1962 Baker v Carr (one person/one vote)
• 1965 Voting Rights Act
• 1968 Housing Act
• Federal aid becomes 15 of state and local funds

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In 210 years we grew from a nation of 3.9 to
281.4 million
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Population Growth 1790 - 2000
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The Center of the U.S. PopulationA History
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Population Growth by State
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100 Years of Population Shifts
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Reapportionment after 1990 2000 censuses
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Redistrictingdrawing the boundaries

• The census gets blamed, but has no role in
  redistricting. It is done at the state level and
  is a very political mix of politics, cartography,
  and black art

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In his later years, Dr. Rorschach dabbled in
Congressional redistricting
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Housing Units

• 2000 116.9 million 9 vacant
  Occupied 66 owner
  34 renter
• 1990 102.3 million 10
  vacant Occupied 65 owner
  35 renter

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The 10 largest cities

• 1. New York
• 2. Los Angeles
• 3. Chicago
• 4. Houston
• 5. Philadelphia

• 6. Phoenix
• 7. San Diego
• 8. Dallas
• 9. San Antonio
• 10. Detroit
• Lost population in decade

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Nine Metropolitan Areas of 5 Million or More

• NY-NJ-LI-CT-PA (21.2)
• LA-Riverside-Orange CA (16.4)
• Chicago-Gary-Kenosha IL-IN-WI(9.2)
• Washington-Baltimore DC-MD-VA-WV (7.6)
• San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose CA (7.0)

• Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City PA-NJ-DE-MD
  (6.2)
• Boston-Worcester-Lawrence MA-NH-ME-CT (5.8)
• Detroit-AA-Flint MI (5.5)
• Dallas-Ft Worth TX (5.2)

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An increasingly diverse population
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Data that highlight local differences
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Ann Arbor is the most integrated city in Michigan
(William Frey, University of Michigan)
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Our population is aging
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Median Age of the Population
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In a university town, the population never grows
old

• MEDIAN AGE
• 35.3 United States
• 33.5 Michigan
• 28.1 Ann Arbor

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Immigrants keep the nation younger. Median age

• 38.5 Whites
• 35.3 TOTAL POPULATION
• 32.3 Asians
• 30.5 African Americans
• 28.5 American Indians
• 26.6 Hispanics

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Foreign-Born Population History

• 1860- 1920 13-15
• 1930 11.6
• 1970 4.7
• 2000 11.1
• Early immigration mostly from Europe 2000
  half from Latin America, one-fourth from Asia

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Language other than English spoken at home

• 1990 13.8
• 2000 17.0

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Illegal immigrants now estimated as 7-8 million
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Household Structure
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Families With Children
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Median household income 41,343(1990 - 30,056)

• RANGE
• 54,226 New Jersey
• 43,448 Michigan
• 28,569 West Virginia

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Education (persons 25)
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College Graduates 2000
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Bathrooms show how the U.S. has changed since 1940

• Complete plumbingpiped
• hot and cold water, flush
• toilet, tub or shower
• 1940 55 of housing
• 2000 99

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And here are some changes since 1930
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How accurate is the U.S. census?
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• George Washington complained of an undercount in
  the 1790 census
• But neither he nor Thomas Jefferson, who directed
  the census, knew how to fix it

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Discovery of the differential undercount - 1940

• More men 18-45 registered for the draft in fall
  1940 than were counted in the 1940 census in
  April
• Draft registration was particularly higher among
  black men

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1940s Start of Demographic Analysis with
Non-census Data

• Births Deaths Immigration Emigration
  Estimate of population

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Demographic Analysis Undercount

• 1940 5.4
• 1950 4.1
• 1960 3.1
• 1970 2.7
• 1980 1.2
• 1990 1.8
• 2000 -0.7

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Demographic Analysis cant be used to adjust (add
estimate of uncounted to) a census

• Not enough detail
• National only
• Black or non-black only

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1950s and onCensus Bureau uses surveys as
evaluation tools
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Why Adjustment Is Political Issue

• Undercount level varies by race, ethnicity, sex,
  age, home ownership
• This means undercount is geographically
  differentially distributed between states and
  within states
• Overcounted are those with 2 housing units and
  college studentsvery different socioeconomically
  than undercounted

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2000 Census

• Count higher than expected 281,424,177
• Demographic Analysis estimate Overcount of
  0.7
• Post-census survey estimates 2000 -Undercount of
  1.18 Revised 2001 to 0.6 Revised 2003 to
  Overcount of 0.5
• Census Bureau could not recommend adjustment for
  redistricting or other uses of census data to
  Secretary of Commerce

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Summary

• The U.S. census is amazingly accurate for a
  population in which nearly half of households
  live in a different housing unit than they did 5
  years earlier!

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After 1990 and 2000 Censuses

• Post-enumeration survey
• 150,000 households-1990 300,000-2000
• Capture/recapture methodology
• Estimates undercount of 1.6-1990 0.6 (revised
  from earlier 1.2)-2000

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