Transportation Demand Analysis

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Transportation Demand Analysis

• Mode Choice (Modal Split)

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SAFETEA - LU

• Safe Accountable, Flexible, Efficient
  Transportation Equity Act A Legacy for Users
• Authorizes the Federal Surface transportation
  Programs for highways, highway safety, and
  transit for the 5-year period 2005 2009
• New Core Highway Safety Improvement Program
  (HSIP)
• SAFETEA-LU Doubles TEA-21 Safety Apportionment
• Strategic Highway Safety Plans
• Set asides
• Reporting

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SAFETEA - LU

• Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP)
• New Core Program
• 5.06 Billion over 4 years (FY06 FY09)
• FY 2006 1,236 M
• FY 2007 1,256 M
• FY 2008 1,276 M
• FY 2009 1,296 M
• Set Asides
• Railway Highway Crossings - 220 Million/Year
• High Risk Rural Roads - 90 Million/Year

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Pedestrian and BicycleImprovements

• Construct improvements that enhance pedestrian or
  bicyclist safety or safety of the disabled
• Construct a traffic calming feature
• Install and maintain signs (including
  fluorescent, yellow-green signs) at
  pedestrian-bicycle crossings and in school zones

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Mode Choice

• To estimate person-trips of the various
  alternative modes available,
• assuming that travelers, either individually or
  in groups, make rational choices between the
  available modes, based in part upon
  characteristics of those modes, and in part upon
  characteristics of the travelers.
• Analysis Method
• Multinomial Logit Model

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Multinomial Logit Model

• The logit model is a share model that divides the
  trips between the various modes depending on each
  modes relative desirability for any given trip.
• A mode is relatively more desirable (has greater
  utility) if it is faster, cheaper, or has other
  more favorable attributes than competing modes.

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Multinomial Logit Model

• The utility of a mode may be expressed by means
  of a linear utility expression. For example
• Utility of using Automobile -0.025(in-vehicle
  time) 0.032(out-of-vehicle time)
  0.002(out-of-pocket cost)
• The logit model takes the following form to trade
  off the relative utilities of the various modes

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Probability for choosing Auto
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Difference between cost for taking Mode Auto and
Bus

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Simplifying the Model

• If two modes are available in our model, (Auto
  and Bus)

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Uija -0.025(in-vehicle travel
time)-0.032(out-of-vehicle travel
time)-0.002(out-of-pocket cost)
Uijt -0.025(in-vehicle travel
time)-0.032(out-of-vehicle travel
time)-0.002(out-of-pocket cost)0.75
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Example
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Example