Participation

1
Participation Elections

• Matt Wetstein

San Joaquin Delta College
2
Political Participation

• Conventional Unconventional participation part
  icipation

3
Rates of participation

• Recent study in American Political Science Review
  found

70 of Americans say they voted in last election
34 contacted a govt. official in last year
24 say they gave campaign
9 say they worked for a campaign
5 engaged in some form of protest
4
Political Participation

• 0 Acts of participation 21
• 1 33
• 2 21
• 3 14
• 4 7
• 5 3
• 6 or more acts 1

5
Voting

• Turnout is the of eligible adults who actually
  cast a ballot
• Turnout declining since 1950s
• 1960 63
• 1984 53
• 1988 50
• 1992 55
• 1996 49
• 2000 51

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Voting

• U.S. Turnout compared to other democracies (avg.
  turnout since 1960)
• Australia 94 Canada 76
• Italy 90 U. K. 75
• N. Zealand 88 Japan 71
• Germany 86 U.S.A. 48

7
Voting

• Barriers to Voter Participation
• Registration Burden
• Registration Laws
• Long Ballots Frequency of Elections
• Growing Cynicism Distrust of Govt.
• Socio-Economic Factors
• Political Apathy

8
Trust Government
9
Politicians Crooked
10
Care What I Think
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Voting

• The Rational Logic of Non-Voting
• Assume voters are rational
• Assume voters maximize utility, but minimize
  costs of voting
• Voters calculate the expected payoff or UTILITY
  for each candidate winning
• Vote Choice U(d) - U(r) - U(op)

12
Voting

• What if your favorite candidate (the one who
  maximizes utility cannot win?
• WHY VOTE?
• OR -- What if your candidate is leading in the
  polls by large margins?
• WHY VOTE?

13
Typology of Elections

• Walter Dean Burnham
• Critical Elections the Mainsprings of American
  Politics

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Typology of Elections

• Critical or Realigning Elections
• Massive changes in party attachments
• High interest in the election
• Voter mobilization
• Crisis or shock to the system

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Typology of Elections

• Classic Critical Elections in American history
• 1932 -- Roosevelt (D)
• 1896 -- McKinley (R)
• 1860 -- Lincoln (R)

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Typology of Elections

• Cyclical nature of Critical Elections
• Every generation or two
• 1932-1896 36 years
• 1896-1860 36 years
• 193236 1968
• Is 1968 a Critical Election?

17
Typology of Elections

• Maintaining Elections
• Majority Party candidate wins the election
• No change in partisan attachments
• 1936 Roosevelt wins re-election
• 1940
• 1944
• 1948

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Typology of Elections

• Deviating Elections
• Short term factors allow the minority party
  candidate to win
• Partisan attachments dont really change
• Popularity/personality
• Economic downturn
• 1952 Eisenhower
• 1956 Eisenhower

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Typology of Elections

• Converting Elections
• Majority party candidate wins election
• But party coalitions change (are converted)
• Voting blocs are transformed
• 1964 Lyndon Johnson wins, but Democrats begin to
  lose White Southerners

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Typology of Elections

• Southern Vote for Democratic Candidates,
  1964-1996 (conversion?)
• 1964 52 1984 37
• 1968 52 1988 40
• 1972 31 1992 40
• 1976 54 1996 46
• 1980 44
• Southern Democrat runs for office

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Typology of Elections
What Happens to the Majority Party Candidate?
Loses
Wins
Stay the Same
Maintaining
What happens to the party attachments in
the electorate?
Change
22
Typology of Elections
23
Typology of Elections
Converting
24
Typology of Elections
Critical/ Realigning
Converting
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Typology of Elections

• A Thoroughly Biased Opinion...
• 1968-present are none of the above
• Dealigning Elections

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Typology of Elections

• Dealignment
• Growing number of American voters call themselves
  independent
• Growing number of split ticket voters
• Weakened partisan attachments
• Growing number of non-voters

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Typology of Elections

• Comparative voting data (NES)
• 1952 72 92 00
• voting 63 57 55 51
• indep. 23 34 38 40
• strong
• party att. 35 25 29 31
• split-ticket
• voters 12 30 22 19

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The Bottom Line

• We are in an era of party dealignment
• Third Party candidacies are possible
• Individualized campaigns can be run unattached
  from party apparatus