Is Schrdingers Cat Alive in 2030

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Is Schrödingers Cat Alive in 2030?
Effects ofRolling Dice
or
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Model Set-Up
Core Model Java
Socio-Economic Data
3 Iterations
Networks
4 Period Highway and Transit Assignments
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Discrete Choice Effects

• Three Ways to Run the Model
• All Choices, Including Household and Person
  Files, Are Allowed to Vary
• Household and Person Files Remain Constant Tour
  Generation, Distribution, Mode Choice Vary -
  Standard Run
• Household and Person Files, Tour Generation and
  Distribution Remain Constant Mode Choice Varies
  (FTA New Starts Version No Feedback)

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Model Formulation
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2030 Model Runs

• Standard Run Equilibrium Assignment with
  Gap.001
• Standard Run Equilibrium Assignment with
  Gap.00001
• Variable HH Run Equilibrium Assignment with
  Gap.00001

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Total VMT - Regular Run
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Total VMT - 0.00001 Gap
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Total VMT - Variable Run
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Total VMT
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Freeway VMT
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Arterial/Collector VMT
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VMT by District
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VMT by Ring
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VMT by Ring 9
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VMT by Sector
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Non-Attainment Area
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Ozone Redesignation

• Ran the Model Several Times to Assess the Impacts
  of Variability
• Ran the Assignments Through ODOTs Air Quality
  Analysis Post-Processor
• Link Volumes by Hour, by Direction, by Functional
  Class x Emission Factors

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Ozone Redesignation
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HC
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NOx
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CO
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PM2.5
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What That Means for the Cat

• No Run Was Off the Final Average for Any
  Pollutant by More than /- 0.2.
• PM2.5 Was More Variable than HC, NOx, or CO.
• Number of Equilibrium Iterations Affected the
  Final Outcome More than the Realization Effects.
• In Columbus, the Cat is Always Alive in 2030.

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Count Coefficient of Variation

• Sampling Error Inherent in Traffic Counts
• Coef of Variation St. Dev. / Mean
• USDOTs Guide to Urban Traffic Counting
  Indicates Sampling Error for 24 Hour Counts is
• CV (3.706633/ln(COUNT))-0.264598

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Link Coefficient of Variation
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Link Coefficient of Variation
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Link Coefficient of Variation

• CVcount (3.706633/ln(COUNT)) - 0.264598
• CVregular (0.631385/ln(24 Hr Volume))
• - 0.059902
• CVvariable (0.258741/ln(24 Hr Volume))
• - 0.011584

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Link Coefficient of Variation
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Link Coefficient of Variation
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Link Coefficient of Variation
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Photo Credits JM http//www.logodesignweb.com/sto
ckphoto Scientific American

• Mr. Zhuojun Jiang MORPC
• 614-233-4147
• Ms. Rebekah Anderson ODOT
• 614-752-5735

Thanks also to Greg Giaimo.