COP9 SideEvent Linking Article 2

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COP9 Side-Event Linking Article 2 Article 6
Experiences from a role-play of future climate
negotiations with students from UCL Belgium,
using the interactive Java Climate Model
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele, Ben Matthews Micha
Lauvau, François Beaumont, Philippe Marbaix,
Sebastian Izquierdo, Sophie De Coninck, Mikael
Ange Université catholique de Louvain,
Louvain-la-Neuve, BelgiumContactvanyp_at_climate.
be, matthews_at_climate.be Institut d'astronomie
et de géophysique G.Lemaître, www.climate.be
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60 university students grouped in 17
delegations(Belgium, Denmark, Russia, USA,
Australia, Saudi-Arabia, Venezuela, Brazil,
Burkina-Faso, Marroco, Tuvalu, India,
Greenpeace, GCC, FAO, WB/IMF, Empêcheurs)had
the task to agree by consensus a quantitative
interpretation of Article 2, an equitable
formula for funding adaptation. Such
experiments help to implement Article 6 and may
also highlight science and policy questions for
future negotiations (our role-play was
COP-11).We will also discuss how to build on
this experience, involving groups around the
world.
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Article 6 (Any effective global agreement
requires informed participation by many citizens.
How to involve more people into the global
dialogue?)
Article 2 (Which dangerous climate impacts must
we avoid, and with how much certainty? Hence,
what is a safe level of stabilisation to avoid
these impacts?)

• Article 2 involves risk/value judgements, many
  stakeholders should participate.
• Negotiating mitigation and adaptation together
  helped to balance the North-South debate and may
  help to encourage honesty about the scientific
  uncertainties.
• Using the same model, delegates could present
  very different cases by selecting parameters and
  indicators.
• What indicator should we limit - concentrations,
  global temperature, sea-level, rates of change?
• A target later in the chain shifts the burden of
  uncertainty from adaptation towards mitigation.
• For both issues, various equity principles had to
  be considered (historical responsibility,
  capacity to act, need for development, uneven
  regional distribution of impacts, rights to share
  the atmosphere, etc.).
• Should the funding of adaptation be based on the
  polluter-pays principle,and how should capacity
  to pay be balanced against sufficiency to handle
  impacts?
• The political compromises were a multi-criteria
  stabilisation target and a multi-source
  adaptation fund that were challenging to
  interpret.

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UN Framework Convention on Climate Change
Ultimate objective (Article 2)

• '...stabilization of greenhouse gas
  concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
  would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climate system.
• Such a level should be achieved within a time
  frame sufficient
• - to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to
  climate change,
• - to ensure that food production is not
  threatened and
• - to enable economic development to proceed in a
  sustainable manner.'

(technologies, lifestyles, policy
instruments) Emissions pathways(biogeochemical
cycles) Critical Levels (global temperature /
radiative forcing) Critical Limits (regional
climate changes) Key Vulnerabilities
(socioeconomic factors)
inverse calculation
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Article 2 needs global dialogue - Article 6

• Risk/Value Judgements (including equity
  implications)
• Impacts Key Vulnerabilities? Acceptable level
  of Change?
• Risk Target Indicator? Acceptable Level of
  Certainty?
• (choice of target indicator shifts the burden of
  uncertainty)
• Such risk/value decisions cannot be made by
  scientific experts alone.
• The ultimate integrated assessment model
  remains the global network of human heads.
• To reach effective global agreements, we need an
  iterative global dialogue including citizens /
  stakeholders. The corrective feedback process is
  more important than the initial guess. So let's
  start this global debate!

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• Java Climate Model
• jcm.chooseclimate.org
• In preparing positions for the role-play, the
  students used the Java Climate Model to explore
  options and uncertainties.
• By selecting parameters / indicators, same model
  can "justify" diverse positions
• Works in web browser, Instantly responding
  graphics,
• Cause-effect from emissions to impacts,
• Based on IPCC-TAR methods / data,
• Flexible stabilisation scenarios
• Regional distributions of responsibility and
  climate.
• Transparent, open-source code,
• Interface in 10 languages, 50000 words
  documentation

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Equity principles

• Common but differentiated responsabilities (Art
  3.1)
• Burkina Faso
• Consumption and production patterns
• Development barriers
• Impacts distribution
• Per capita emissions
• NGOs - G17, sustainable development
• Brasil
• Historical responsabilities,
• The Brasilian proposal

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Stabilisation levels and uncertainties

• Europe
• Proposal of stabilisation level
• Saudi Arabia
• Scientific uncertainties
• Other GHGs and fuels

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Impacts and Adaptation fund

• Europe
• Precaution principle (Art 3.3)
• Burkina Faso
• Impacts drought and desertification
• Stabilisation Adaptation Fund proposal
• Saudi Arabia
• Drought and desertification
• Funding/responsibilities
• Allocation/dependent economies (art 4.10)

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Impacts and Adaptation fund

• Europe
• Agreement on the adaptation fund
• Russia
• Regional impacts
• Funding proposal
• Tuvalu
• Low-lying coastal areas
• Refugees of climate (COP 12)

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Conclusions of role-play

• Equity implications were key aspect of discussion
• Final compromise between Russia and Tuvalu (after
  US quit)
• Quantitative interpretation of Article 2
  Temperature rise (lt1.9C 2100-1990)
  Sea-level rise (46cm 2100-1990) (Scientific
  inconsistency maybe realistic in policy
  compromises?)
• Principles for Adaptation funds Tax on
  emissions trading Percapita emissions GDP
  formula Principles sufficiency/capacity

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Personal experiences
After this simulation of international
negotiations, we discovered the great inertia and
complexity that rule both the climatic and
diplomatic systems, the latter maybe harder to
model than the former. However we all felt that
it was an original and exciting human experience
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• Future development to global dialogue
• Such web models might provide a quantative
  framework for a global dialogue.
• Could we combine such tools and experience to
  link groups from all corners of the world?
• JCM also used for teaching in several
  countriesUniv Cath de Louvain (BE) Open
  University (UK), Univ Bern (CH), Univ Washington
  (CA),...
• Group distributed across web can share model by
  saving snapshots of model parameters to pass to
  others in asynchronous web dialogue.
• jcm.chooseclimate.org www.climate.be