The Growth of the Internet

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The Growth of the Internet

• Prepared By
• Rana Khartabil 941020
• Kanwar Hazrah 2125015
• This Report Was Prepared for Professor L.
  Orozco-Barbosa in Partial Fulfillment of the
  Requirements for the Course ELG/CEG 4183

2
Outline

• What Is The Internet?
• How Do We Measure Internet Growth?
• Factors Affecting Internet Growth.
• Current Trends With Internet Growth.
• Speed of Growth Of Internet Traffic.
• Voice Versus Data Communication.
• Traffic On U.S. Voice And Data Networks.
• Traffic On Internet Backbones In The U.S.
• Actual Speed Of Growth Of Internet Traffic.
• Growth In Bandwidth.
• Future Trends.

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What Is The Internet?

• Loose connection of networks.2
• Components
• Hosts.
• Communication links (fibre, copper, radio,
  satellite).
• Routers.
• Protocols (TCP, IP, FTP, HTTP).
• Devices to manage various capabilities.8
• In measuring internet growth, we consider both
  public internet and long-distance private
  networks.

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How Do We Measure Internet Growth?

• Number of users.
• New subscribers or more usage/subscriber drives
  demand for bandwidth.
• But humans can do so much web surfing in a day.
• Method doesnt talk about intensity of usage.
• Number of computers.
• Number of backbone carriers.2
• Sample too small for accurate predictions.

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How Do We Measure Internet Growth? (Contd..)

• Size of networks and Traffic they carry.2
• Traffic on networks increased by
• E-mails.
• WEB (e.g. Google, Napster, Browsers)
• Dominant on Internet traffic.
• These applications allow computers to generate
  and receive traffic all the time.
• Different traffic characteristics than human
  traffic.
• Many simultaneous connections to different
  destinations, each which can burst to full
  capacity.1
• Difficult to measure.

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Factors Affecting Internet Growth

• Conservative use of bandwidth (user and
  government).
• Reduces burden on the internet.
• Done by user awareness programs or government
  control.
• Better models for traffic handling (engineers).
• Distributed networks.
• Growth of technology (engineers).
• E-commerce.5

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Factors Affecting Internet Growth (Contd..)

• Security (engineers and government).
• Increase in security incidents may hinder
  internet growth

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Factors Affecting Internet Growth (Contd..)

• How fast supply and demand are likely to grow.3
• Data storage capacities doubling each year.
• Demand for data transmission is huge.
• Affected by economy and sociology.
• Data transmission pricing.3
• Has shown increase since 1990.
• Only recently have shown signs of decrease.
• Once they start declining rapidly, many
  constraints on usage will be relaxed.

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Current Trends With Internet Growth

• Number of people with Internet access worldwide
  is 500 million.7
• In fourth quarter of 2001, 24 million people
  gained Internet access.7
• Double that of third quarter, which had 15
  million new users.

4
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Speed Of Growth Of Internet Traffic

• Doubling every year, or every 3-4 months?
• If every 3-4 months, we would have grown from 16
  TB in 1994 to 240 EB now on internet backbones.3
• With 500 million internet users, volume of
  traffic would be 1.5 MB/sec for each user.3
• Progress in transmission technology appears
  sufficient to double network capacity each year.3
• Computing and storage capacity also growing.3
• Extremely fast.
• Faster than any other communication.

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Voice Versus Data Communication

• Voice traffic growing by 10.3
• Internet traffic growing by 70-150.3
• Reason
• In most telephone calls, humans talk to only one
  person at a time.
• With the computer, multiple connections can be
  maintained at the same time (i.e. Larger number
  of processes).1

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Traffic On U.S. Voice And Data Networks
3
13
Traffic On Internet Backbones In The U.S.
3

• Annual growth rate of 100 from 1990-94.
• Annual growth rate of 1000 from 1994-96.
• Annual growth rate slowing down to 100 in 1997.

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Actual Speed Of Growth Of Internet Traffic

• Internet growth is only limited by the number of
  simultaneous TCP sessions.1
• Number of simultaneous TCP sessions is directly
  related to Moores law.1
• Amount of information storable on a given amount
  of silicon has doubled every year since the
  technology was invented.9
• Followed curve (bits per square inch) 2(t -
  1962), where t is time in years.9

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Growth In Bandwidth

• Primarily from WDM systems of increasing
  capacity.3
• From installation of additional fiber.
• Lab experiments show 1 TB/sec in 1995-96 to 3
  TB/sec in 1999.3
• Only 3 times in four years.
• Actual usage estimates are far less 20 GB/sec in
  1996 to 800 GB/sec in 2001.3
• Transmission capacity of each fiber is doubling.

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Growth In Bandwidth (Contd..)

• 3

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Future Trends

• Moores law for growth of internet can be
  fulfilled for at least next decade.3
• Doubling transmission capacity of fibers can be
  fulfilled until 2007.
• We cannot be certain that internet traffic will
  continue doubling every year.
• Trends in transmission and other technologies
  appear to provide demand and supply that will
  allow doubling each year.3

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Future Trends Prediction (Contd..)
If continues doubling yearly, data traffic may
overtake voice by the end of this year or
somewhere in the next year.
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Questions..?
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A Note on Citation

• Most of the citation in this paper was taken
  from the internet. Material skimmed from internet
  will be typeset according to the configurations
  of individual users computer, and thus cannot be
  precisely referenced especially as far as page
  numbers are concerned.
• Also please note that this paper doesnt include
  data or tables which have not been referenced.
  All such references have been provided in the
  following section.

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References

• Arnaud, B. Some Observations on Internet Traffic
  Growth Scaling, http//www.ima.umn.edu/talks/w
  orkshops/8-6-7.2001/st-arnaud/st-arnaud.pdf
• Coffman, K.G Odlyzko, A. 1998. The Size and
  Growth Rate of the Internet, http//www.firstmon
  day.dk/issues/issue3_10/coffman
• Coffman, K.G Odlyzko, A. 2001. Internet
  Growth Is there a Moores Law for data
  traffic?, AtT Labs-Research, www.research.att.c
  om/amo/doc/internet.moore.pdf

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References (Contd..)

• Global Reach. 2001. Global Internet
  Statistices, http//www.glreach.com/globstats
• Laursen, J. 1997. The Internet Past, Present
  and Future - Internet and WWW History,
  http//www.vissing.dk/inthist.html
• Martin, J. 1999. Growth of Internet Security
  Incidents, http//www.more.net/security/nt10/sld
  003.htm

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References (Contd..)

• Pastore, M. 2002. At home Internet Users
  Approaching Half Billion, http//cyberatlas.inte
  rnet.com/big_picture/geographics/article/0,,5911_9
  86431,00.html
• Steinke, S. 2000. How fast is the Internet
  Growing, http//www.networkmagazine.com/article/
  NMG20001003S0004
• WebOpedia. 2002. Moores Law,
  http//www.webopedia.com/TERM/M/Moores_Law.html

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Possible Question 1

• What is Moores Law?
• The observation that the logic density of
  silicon integrated circuits has closely followed
  the curve (bits per square inch) 2(t - 1962)
  where t is time in years that is, the amount of
  information storable on a given amount of silicon
  has roughly doubled every year since the
  technology was invented. 9

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Possible Question 2

• In the early 90s, many wizards predicted that
  internet growth is doubling every 3 months. Is
  this growth rate sustainable (knowing that in
  1994, the rate is 15 TB/ month)?
• No. Doubling of internet traffic every three
  months would produce an increase by a factor of
  16 in one year. Hence it would have grown by a
  factor of almost 17 million. In 1994, internet
  carried 15 TB, so it would be carrying 240
  Exabytes now. Whereas today, we are still talking
  about Terabytes only.

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Possible Question 3

• List the 5 different ways of measuring internet
  growth.
• Number of users
• Number of computers (hosts)
• Number of TCP connections
• Size of networks and traffic they carry
• Number of backbone carriers

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Possible Question 4

• What is the only limiting factor to measurement
  of the growth of internet?
• Internet growth in only limited by the number of
  simultaneous TCP sessions.

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Possible Question 5

• Globalization contributes to internet growth.
  Describe the factors which are stimulating the
  global growth?
• Language barrier being lifted
• More world population getting online
• E-commerce

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Possible Question 6

• What are the most relevant concerns regarding the
  future growth of the internet?
• Availability of bandwidth to handle the traffic.
• Technological advancement to handle the growth of
  internet.
• Security of internet.

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Possible Question 7

• What are some of the factors that affect internet
  growth?
• Conservative use of bandwidth.
• Better models for traffic handling.
• Distributed networks.
• Growth of technology.
• E-commerce.
• Security
• How fast supply and demand are likely to grow.
• Data transmission pricing.