Ensemble Training Available at COMET and Elsewhere

1
Ensemble Training Available at COMET and Elsewhere

• Dr. William R. Bua, Project Scientist, UCAR/COMET
• Ensemble Users Workshop
• 2 November 2006

2
Outline

• What concepts we need to teach
• What training is currently available
• COMET
• NWS
• ECMWF
• Where we need to go with training
• Whats missing from training now?
• What are current plans to address these needs?

3
Important Ensemble Concepts

• Scientific basis for ensemble prediction
• Chaos theory/sensitivity of NWP forecasts to
  initial conditions
• NWP model forecast sensitivity to model
  parameterizations, numerics, data assimilation
• Ensemble configuration and implications for
  ensemble forecast usage
• Postprocessing of ensemble data
• Statistical methods used for ensemble products
• Advantages and limitations of product usage
• Case examples to illustrate the concepts
• Above all, need to train on the RELEVANCE of
  ensemble prediction in day-to-day forecast process

4
COMET Training
http//meted.ucar.edu
Click the link!
5
NWP Section of MetEd website
6
The NWP Forum A place to discuss NCEP EPSs
http//meted.ucar.edu/nwp/newsgroups/index.htm
Links to Background, Instructions, Rules, Help,
and a direct Jump to forums if already registered
7
NWP Forum on MetEd Web Site

• GFS section can be used to address ensemble
  prediction in the medium range
• NAM/mesoscale for the short-range ensemble
  prediction system

8
Case Studies Using Ensemble Tools
Menu Frame
Content Frame
9
NCEP Hydrological Prediction Center Ensemble
Training
http//www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ensembletraining
10
TC/PR/RB Lecture 1 Introduction to Ensemble
Prediction
Roberto Buizza European Centre for Medium-Range
Weather Forecasts (http//www.ecmwf.int/staff/robe
rto_buizza/)
11

12
(No Transcript)
13
WMO Ensemble Training Workshops

• Emphasis on training in Asia, Africa, and South
  America
• Workshops in 2005-6 (not an exhaustive list)
• Brasilia, Brazil (January 2005)
• Shanghai, China (April 2005)
• Incorporated into education and training workshop
  in Nanjing (September 2006)

14
Where do we need to go?

• Need feedback from users to determine future
  direction of training, but heres my guess.
• More case studies
• Need to more directly tie ensemble prediction to
  operational meteorology
• Show practical uses in the forecast office
• More training through case studies in climate
  prediction realm?
• More information on existing EPS
• COMET ensemble matrix and the NAEFS
• Timely updating of information as EPS
  configurations either change or new EPSs become
  available for operational use

15
FY 2007 UCAR/COMET Plans

• Wave ensemble training
• Teletraining on SREF (as it becomes available to
  WFOs through AWIPS) and MREF
• Maintenance of Ensemble Prediction Matrix
• Case studies as appropriate