Bill Murtagh

1
Space Weather Cycles and their Impacts
Bill Murtagh Monty Spencer NOAA Space Environment
Center National Weather Service Boulder, Colorado
2
Overview

• Solar Cycle(s)
• Space Weather Impacts
• Who cares and why
• SEC Products

3
Status of Solar Cycle 23 Smoothed Sunspot
Number (SSN)

• Cycle 23 - Began in May 1996 with a SSN 8.0
• Peak in April 2000 with SSN
  120.8
• Current SSN (Nov 2006) 12.7

• We are now almost 11 years into Cycle 23, and 7
  years past SSN maximum

4
Historical Perspective of Cycle 23 SSN

• Cycle 23 Peak in April 2000 with SSN 120.8
• Average Cycle!
• Solar cycle average over 23 cycles
  (1749-2007) 117.9
• Fifth largest in the
• past century but
• second smallest in
• past six cycles
• Ranks 10th highest
• of the 23 cycles

5
The Geomagnetic cycle will almost always peak
after the SSN maximum (2 4 years). This Cycle
was no exception.
High speed coronal hole streams create a
prolonged disturbed state in the geomagnetic
field and account for most of the disturbed
conditions during the waning stages of the the
sunspot Solar Cycle.
6
The superb recurrent nature of coronal hole high
speed streams during the waning stage of the
cycle helps greatly in geomagnetic storm
forecasting.
27-Day Rotation
SOHO (EIT) Fe XV 284 Å - GSFC
ACE Solar Wind Speed
9 Dec 2003
Large Transequatorial Coronal Hole
15 Sep 03 15 Oct 15
Nov 15 Dec
7
Power Interests US Nuclear Regulatory
Commission Deer Lake Power Bonneville Power NY
Power Authority NY Independent System
Operator Wisconsin Electric Power Central Maine
Power Pacific Gas Electric Consolidated
Edison Maine Public Service Omaha Public Power
District WAPA Puget Sound Energy  
K5 K6 Customers
MISC NASA US Coast Guard Los Alamos National
Lab. ATT Network Operations US Department of
Energy European Space Agency USAF National Public
Radio
Aeronautical Lockheed Martin Boeing
Raytheon Aerospace Corp., Northrop Grumman
Corp. Aeronautical Radio, Inc. (ARINC)
Aviation Several major airlines FAA Flight
Control Services Herbert Flying Services Airline
Pilots Association Aeronautical Radio, Inc.
(ARINC)
8
Solar Cycle 23 Electron Fluence
Satellites vulnerable to deep dialectic charging
are threatened at this stage of the cycle
(approaching solar minimum).
gt 2 MeV
9
Energetic electrons can cause big problems
for space operations

• High speed streams, produce very large long-lived
  electron belt enhancements
• An ill-timed EVA could deliver a radiation dose
  exceeding short-term limits for skin and eyes.

• Electrons can produce high charging levels in
  dielectrics inside the spacecraft. Discharging
  can cause significant problems
• Double Star satellites July 2004
• In two week period, several TC-1 2 instruments
  experienced multiple resets.
• Both the main and redundant computers of the
  satellite attitude control system failed on TC-2.

Double Star satellite
10
Jan 2007 The statement says the likely cause
of the failure was intense solar activity during
the period, which caused an electrostatic
discharge on board the satellite, disrupting the
on-board electronics.
11
Solar Cycle 23 Cosmic Radiation
Cosmic radiation is a term typically used for
high energy radiation which comes from the Sun
(the solar component) and from the galaxies of
the Universe (the galactic component).
12
USA TODAY 28 Mar 2005 Cancer fears limit Hong
Kong air crews' New York trips HONG KONG
(AFP) Airline Cathay Pacific has limited air
crews' flights on the non-stop Hong Kong-New York
route after it was found the journey could
increase the likelihood of cancer, a report said
Sunday. Staff of the British-owned, Hong
Kong-based airline say they have been limited to
just two of the ultra long-haul flights per month
since it was found the route exposed passengers
and crew to high levels of cosmic radiation when
they flew over the North Pole.
Cosmic radiation effects on avionics (spacecraft
and airplanes) Ionizing radiation can interact
with electronics and cause a number of different
effects, including ? Bit-flips ? Destructive
burn-out (burn-out in high-voltage
electronics) ? Gate rupture (burnout of a
transistor gate insulator) ? Dielectric failure
13
Solar Cycle 24 Prediction

• Panel formed and charged with official
  prediction for Solar Cycle 24 for NOAA, NASA, and
  the International Space Environment Service
  (ISES)
• Minimum March 2008Marks the end of Cycle 23
  and start of Cycle 24. The length of Cycle 23
  will then be 11.75 years
• Maximum October 2011Will peak at a sunspot
  number of 140(20) in October, 2011

• OR!!!
• Will peak at a sunspot number of 90 (10)
• in August 2012
• The panel split down the middle on
• whether it will be bigger than average or
• smaller than average!

14
Colorado Aurora Photo by Ginger Mayfield
15
Halloween Storms 2003
A total of 17 major flares, including largest
ever X28 Fourth largest proton event since
1976 Two largest geomagnetic storms (Ap) of Cycle
23
Significant Impacts
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The November 2004 Storms

• Some Totals
• Eleven M-class and two X-class x-ray flares.
• Nine Earth-directed CMEs observed on LASCO
  imagery
• Two Radiation storms (at gt10 gt100 MeV)
• Six days of geomagnetic storming four
  severe!
•  

Colorado Aurora Nov 2004 Photo by Darrell
Spangler
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The January 2005 Activity

• Five X-class and 19 M-class flares
• Strongest high energy radiation storm since 1991
• Three days of minor to severe geomagnetic storming

Flights rerouted, polar routes abandoned
altogether ISS astronauts took precautionary
shelter Several satellite anomalies Extended HF
comm problems
Several anomalies occurred on the Gravity Probe B
Mission
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Space Weather Impacts Who cares and why

• Radio Blackouts (R scale)
• - Solar Flares
• Radiation Storms (S scale)
• - Proton Events
• Geomagnetic Storms (G scale)

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NOAA Space Weather Scales
http//www.sec.noaa.gov/NOAAscales/
Radio Blackouts
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Solar Flare Radio Blackouts (NOAA R Scale) -
Flare produces electromagnetic radiation across
the spectrum at all wavelengths from long-wave
radio signals to the shortest wavelength gamma
rays.
Powerful X17 flare
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The New York Communication Center 07Sep05
1800Z   Solar activity severely impacted all HF
comms.  Higher frequencies utilized with little
effect.  24 aircraft position reports and NYC ATC
messages were relayed via sat-voice between 1040Z
and 1939Z..           Severe operational
impact. 
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Solar flares also produce bursts of radio
emission, which can significantly impact GPS.
23
NASA JPL
GPS From GPSOC at Schriever AFB 06 Dec At
approximately 6 Dec/2000Z there was a widespread
loss of GPS in the Mountain States region,
specifically around the 4 corners region of
NM/CO. Several aircraft reported losing lock on
GPS and were tracking 7-9 satellites, and
abruptly loss locks and were then tracking 0-1.
Positioning Fails
Positioning fails
Galapagos Sunlit during SRB
GUAM Nighttime during SRB
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Very difficult to forecast radio bursts no
one-to-one correlation with flares!
This event received world-wide media coverage
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Radar systems are effected by radio bursts

• Air Traffic Control The flare on December 6
  resulted in significant impacts to the network of
  air traffic control radars in Canada, causing
  false targets and interference in the N/S
  direction on scales of approximately 150 miles in
  length. Also on the 6th Denver Center noticed
  strobing on their ATC radar, the problem cleared
  on its own after about 15 minutes

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Solar Radiation Storms (NOAA S Scale) Forecaster
s nightmare

• Biological Radiation hazard to astronauts
  radiation exposure in commercial jets

• Satellites may be rendered useless noise in
  image data star-trackers unable to locate
  sources permanent damage to solar panels

• Other systems often prolonged (days) of blackout
  of HF (high frequency) communications in polar
  regions position errors in navigation systems

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Aviation

• Aviation interests are significantly impacted
• by solar radiation storms
• Radiation storms create a communications
• problem and a biological threat.

Polar flights departing from North America use
VHF (30-300 MHz) comm with Canadian ATCs. Flights
will continue using VHF with Arctic Radio, but
soon switch to HF (3 30 MHz). SATCOM is
considered a backup during polar flights, but it
is rarely available above 82 degrees north
latitude.
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Manned Space Flight

• NOAA briefs the NASA Space Radiation Analysis
  Group daily
• Shuttle missions and space walks require
  particular attention
• Radiation storms are primary concern, but
  geomagnetic storms will change radiation dose
  levels at higher inclination.
• Deep space missions will be a whole different
  ballgame!!!

29
Deep Space Missions
Mars Odyssey Oct 28 2003 (radiation storm) -
The MARIE instrument had a temperature red alarm
leading it to be powered off on October 28. The
MARIE instrument is not expected to recover.

Mars Express - radiation made it impossible to
navigate using stars as reference points
(orbiter's star trackers blinded for 15 hours).
The flares also delayed a scheduled Beagle 2
checkout procedure.
SMART-1 - Auto shutdown of engine due to
radiation levels in lunar transfer orbit.
Reported a total of 3 shutdowns.
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Geomagnetic Storms (NOAA G Scale)

• Electric Utilities widespread voltage control
  problems transformer damage grid collapse and
  blackouts.
• Spacecraft operations surface charging
  problems with orientation uplink/downlink
  problems satellite drag and tracking problems.
• Other systems pipeline currents can reach
  hundreds of amps HF (high frequency) radio
  propagation impacted GPS may be degraded for
  days aurora.

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Electric Power Grid (Geomagnetic Storms)

• CME impacts Earths magnetic field
• Fluctuations generate electric fields on Earth.
  These geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) can
  flow into power lines and transformers
• Leads to transformer saturation and
  over-heating, false relay trippings, an increase
  of harmonics, voltage drops, transformer damage,
  grid collapse

32
ESKOM Network reports - 5 Stations, 15
Transformers damaged
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Electric power companies take actions to mitigate
geomagnetic storm impacts
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GPS operations

• High resolution land surveying airborne and
  marine survey operations and land and sea
  drilling operations are all impacted.

If the GPS data collected are not usable, due to
high solar activity levels, data must be
recollected and reprocessed. The financial and
scheduling impact on these operations is
significant, with costs in the 50,000, to
200,000 to 1,000,000/day range. - FugroChance
The C.R Luigs (ultra-deep water drill ship) -
relies on GPS Dynamic Positioning System for
precise drilling in 9,000 12,000 feet of water
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Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS)
For a 15 and 11-hour periods in Oct, the
ionosphere was so disturbed that the vertical
error limit, as defined by the FAA to be no more
that 50 meters, was exceeded. That translated
into commercial aircraft being unable to use WAAS
for precision approaches.
36
Racing Pigeons?
Pigeons have internal biological compasses
composed of the mineral magnetite. This
biological compass is affected by geomagnetic
storms.
Pigeon racers will not release their birds when
G1-G5 geomagnetic storm conditions are observed
or predicted

• The year 2000 which has been very brutal for
  young bird racing here in North America and
  Europe coinciding with the high of the cycle of
  solar radiation in 2000 Alberta Classic

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SEC and Space Weather Products

• Products and Services

SEC gathers data from NOAA and NASA satellites
and receives real-time solar and geophysical
information from ground-based observatories
around the world.

• Providing
• Alert Products
• Forecasts, Reports, and Summaries
• Space Weather Models
• Solar and Geomagnetic Indices
• Instrument Measurements

SEC Tutorial April 2005
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SEC and Space Weather ProductsProducts and
Services

• SEC produces 42 Alert products

Watches expected disturbances, events that are
forecast (i.e. The conditions are favorable for
occurrence) Warnings disturbances that are
imminent, likely, expected in the near future
with high probability Alerts observed
conditions meeting or exceeding
thresholds Summaries report issued as storm
thresholds change/end-of-event
SEC Tutorial April 2005
39
SEC and Space Weather ProductsProducts and
Services
http//pss.sec.noaa.gov
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SEC Tutorial April 2005
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SEC Web Site Online Resourceshttpwww.sec.noaa.go
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SEC Tutorial April 2005
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Conclusion

• Space weather is not limited to the sunspot
  maximum years
• - Intense space weather occurs late in the cycle
• - There are several space weather maximums
• An ever-growing dependence on space-based
  technology will result in an increasing need for
  space weather services

• The health of many technological systems around
  the globe will depend heavily on our
  understanding of the space environment, and our
  ability to predict hazardous space weather storms