Recent NASANOAA

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Recent NASA-NOAA Tropical Cyclone Collaborations

• CAMEX-3
• 06 Aug 23 Sept 1998 Patrick AFB, FL
• TC development, tracking, intensification, and
  landfalling impacts
• Hurricane structure, dynamics, and motion
• Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Georges

• CAMEX-4
• 16 Aug 24 Sept 2001 Jacksonville NAS, FL
• TC develop., tracking, intensification, and
  landfalling impacts
• Study of storms as they approach landfall
  (Carib., GMex, U.S. E coast)
• Chantal, Erin, Humberto

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Recent NASA-NOAA Tropical Cyclone Collaborations

• TCSP
• July 2005 San Jose, Costa Rica
• TC genesis (early life cycle)
• collect temp., humidity, precip., and wind
  information related to TCs
• Dennis, Emily, pre-Eugene, Gert

• NAMMA
• 16 Aug 24 Sept 2006 Sal, Cape Verde
• study the formation and evolution of TCs AEWs
  in the E and Centr. Atl
• study the composition and structure of the
  Saharan Air Layer
• study how aerosols may affect cloud
  precipitation and TC development
• Debby, Pre-Ernesto, pre-Florence, Helene, 3 AEWs

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NAMMA
TCSP Domain Terrain AEWs vs. In Situ
NAMMA Domain Dusts AEWs
TCSP
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NOAAs Intensity Forecasting Experiment (IFEX)
Program Motivation
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IFEX (NOAA NHC, EMC, HRD)
Goal 1 Collect observations that span the TC
lifecycle in a variety of environments
GOAL 2 Develop and refine measurement
technologies that provide improved real-time
monitoring of TC intensity, structure, and
environment
GOAL 3 Improve our understanding of the physical
processes important in intensity change for a TC
at all stages of its lifecycle
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P-3 TC Missions by Lifecycle Stage (1976-2004)
Tropical Storm 24 (n140)
Hurricane 68 (n387)
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• NOAA Operational Priorities
• TC intensity change
• 2) Early lifecycle, including genesis
• 3) NOAA Joint Hurricane Testbed Priorities

(TPC-1) Guidance for tropical cyclone intensity
change, with highest priority on the onset,
duration, and magnitude of rapid intensification
events. Similar guidance is also needed on when
rapid over-water weakening (such as had been
observed in recent Gulf of Mexico hurricanes)
will occur (TPC-2) Improved observational
systems in the storm and its environment that
provide data for forecaster analysis and model
initialization (TPC-11) Guidance for tropical
cyclone genesis that exhibits a high probability
of detection and a low false alarm rate, and/or
provides probability of genesis
(EMC 1) General model improvements to advance
track and intensity forecasts (EMC 3) Model
validation techniques suitable for three
dimensional high resolution verification for all
phases of the tropical cyclone life cycle
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Scientific Needs

• Multi-scale processes (synoptic, mesoscale,
  convective, microscale)
• 2) Multiple platforms needed to cover storm- and
  synoptic-environments

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Proposed Science

• Develop scientific goals that represent a fusion
  of TCSP NAMMA science
• Merging of overlapping goals available assets
  to address multi-scale nature of the problem
• Genesis/early lifecycle studies

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Some Questions to Address

• 1) What are the precursors for rapid
  intensification?
• Synoptic scale vertical shear, SST, OHC, PI,
  humidity
• Vortex-scale size of incipient vortex, humidity

2) What is the impact of variations in the
synoptic-scale environment (e.g., dry air,
vertical shear, aerosols, wave deformation/accumul
ation) on developing tropical cyclones?
3) What governs interaction between the synoptic
environment and incipient vortex (e.g., size of
vortex, marsupial hypothesis)?
4) What is the role of deep convection (e.g.,
convective bursts, VHTs) in TC genesis and
intensity change?
5) What are the differences in the precipitation
morphology and related microphysical structures
at various lifecycle stages?
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Studying TCs in the EPAC vs Atlantic

• EPAC
• well defined SST gradients
• vertical shear tends to be more uniform
• main development region tends to have higher
  moisture content
• TC factoryprime region for genesis studies
• not an ideal location for current NOAA IFEX
  interests (e.g. U.S. impact)
• doesnt fuse some of NAMMAs main objectives
  (SAL aerosol studies)

• Atlantic
• land interactions, fronts (e.g. GMex U.S. east
  coast)
• gtatmospheric variability over ltdistance
• Saharan Air Layer (dry air, dust, enhanced
  vertical wind shear)
• GMex horizontal heterogeneity in mixed layer
  depths
• marginal basin (early lifecycle studies more of
  a challenge)
• better overlap with NOAA IFEX interests
• likelihood of better fusion of TCSP NAMMA
  objectives
• deployment east probably ideal for NOAA
  (Barb, St. Croix, San Juan?)
• -reduced chance for conflicts with operational
  tasking
• -better chance for life cycle studies (research
  initiates missions, operations picks up if
  systems threaten coastline)
• -accessible to the central Atlantic and
  Caribbean region

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NOAA Aircraft Assets

• 1) Two P-3s (inner core)
• GPS dropsondes, airborne Doppler radar,
  microphysics, SFMR, flight-level data

• 2) G-IV (environment)
• GPS dropsondes, airborne Doppler radar (2009),
  flight-level data

• 3) UAV (inner core, environment)
• Flight-level thermo winds

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NOAA P-3 Orions
50N
40N
30N
San Juan
20N
MDR
St. Croix
Barbados
10N
50W
40W
30W
20W
80W
90W
100W
70W
60W
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NOAA G-IV
50N
40N
30N
San Juan
20N
MDR
St. Croix
Barbados
10N
50W
40W
30W
20W
80W
90W
100W
70W
60W
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Aerosonde
50N
40N
30N
Key West
San Juan
20N
MDR
St. Croix
Barbados
10N
50W
40W
30W
20W
80W
90W
100W
70W
60W
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Atlantic/Caribbean Genesis Locations (1944-1999)
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Rapid Intensification in the EPAC vs Atlantic

• HRD RI Index (Atlantic)
• RI threshold 30 kt in 24 hr
• RI cases 185 out of 2504 overall TC cases
  (10-yr dataset)

• HRD RI Index (EPAC)
• RI threshold 35 kt in 24 hr
• RI cases 125 out of 1950 overall TC cases
  (10-yr dataset)

• Rapid Intensifiers EPAC (94th perc) vs Atlantic
  (93rd perc)
• 75 less skill in the Atlantic (relative to RI
  climatology)

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Spatial Distribution of Intensity Error
(2003-2006 tau48h)
Tim Marchok, GFDL
DSHP
GFDI
SHIFOR
Official
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Spatial Distribution of Intensity Skill
(2003-2006 tau48h)
DSHP
GFDI
Official

• GFDL SHIPS have trouble in Caribbean Bahamas
  region, but still beat SHIFOR

• SHIFOR is tough to beat in the north central
  Atlantic region

• Note Deeper blues purples indicate greater
  skill deeper oranges a lack of skill.

Tim Marchok, GFDL
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NOAA To Dos

• Check on updated NOAA Aircraft allocation plans
  for the 2009-2011 timeframe
• Estimate costs (expendables, manpower, etc) for
  various field program scenarios being discussed
  
• Early discussions between HRD and its other IFEX
  partners (NHC EMC)summer 2007
• More formal follow-up discussions between NASA
  reps and IFEX partnersfall 2007?