VISTAS 2002 DRAFT NONROAD MOBILE INVENTORY

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VISTAS 2002 DRAFT NONROAD MOBILE INVENTORY

• Prepared byKirstin B. Thesing
• E.H. Pechan Associations, Inc.for
  theVisibility Improvement - State and Tribal
  Association of the Southeast

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Nonroad Mobile Categories

• NONROAD Model Categories
• Farm and construction machinery, lawn and garden,
  recreational vehicles, among other applications
• Other Nonroad
• Aircraft
• Locomotives
• Commercial Marine Vessels (CMVs)

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NONROAD Model Activities

• Obtained temperature and fuel data from
  State/local/tribal (S/L/T) agencies to improve
  inputs for NONROAD model
• In July 2003, provided summary of seasonal inputs
  by county for S/L/T agencies to review
• Revised inputs to respond to comments

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NONROAD Model Activities

• Ran seasonal State or county-specific input files
  using EPAs NONROAD2002 model
• Developed annual criteria pollutant emissions,
  and estimated NH3 based on fuel consumption and
  updated EPA emission factors

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Aircraft, Locomotives, CMVs

• Emission estimates developed for the 1999
  National Emissions Inventory (NEI), Version 2.0
• Incorporated revised S/L/T estimates
• Projected 1999 estimates to 2002 using surrogate
  growth indicators

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Aircraft, Locomotives, CMVs

• Revised emission estimates incorporated for
• Pickens and Tuscaloosa Co, Alabama (Locomotive
  NOx only)
• Palm Beach Co, Florida
• Davidson Co, Tennessee
• Virginia Statewide

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Growth Indicators for Aircraft

• 1999 and 2002 approach operations by airport and
  aircraft type available from the Federal Aviation
  Administrations Air Traffic Activity Data System
  (ATADS)
• Airport-level LTOs assigned to counties
• State-average growth factors applied to counties
  with emissions without a county match in ATADS

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Growth Indicators for Locomotives and CMVs

• Locomotives and CMVs
• For 1999 to 2001, State-level vessel bunkering
  and rail fuel consumption from Energy Information
  Administrations Fuel Oil and Kerosene Sales
• For 2001 to 2002, applied national growth factors
  developed from fuel consumption projections in
  EIAs Annual Energy Outlook

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Annual Nonroad Sector Emissions for 2002 Draft
VISTAS Inventory, tpy
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Comparisons of 1999/2001 NEI and 2002 VISTAS
Inventory

• Comparisons for all nonroad categories (NONROAD
  model and other nonroad)
• Pie chart comparisons to show category
  contributions to other nonroad emissions
• Comparisons for NONROAD model categories (used
  2001 NEI)

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Nonroad 1999 NEI V2 and 2002 VISTAS Inventory

• Regional emissions comparison
• Increase in PM2.5 due to addition of commercial
  aircraft PM emissions
• Commercial aircraft PM10 and PM2.5 emissions were
  zero
• Applied average air taxi PM/NOx emission ratio to
  commercial aircraft NOx emissions
• Decrease in NH3 due primarily to correction of
  CNG engine NH3 emissions

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Nonroad 1999 NEI V2 and 2002 VISTAS Inventory

• State-level emissions comparison
• NOx decreases due to new State data for other
  nonroad from AL and VA
• States with higher proportion of commercial
  aircraft show significant PM increases (FL, TN,
  VA)
• SO2 and VOC decrease for some States, increase
  for others

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Annual Nonroad Emissions for 1999 NEI V2 and
2002 VISTAS Inventory (tpy)
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Percent Difference - Nonroad 2002 VISTAS
Inventory from 1999 NEI V2
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Other Nonroad 1999 NEI V2 and 2002 VISTAS
Inventory

• Change in relative contribution of the aircraft,
  locomotive, and CMV categories to other nonroad
  NOx and PM emissions
• Locomotive contribution to NOx emissions
  decreases 10 percent
• Aircraft contribution to PM2.5 emissions
  increases 75 percent

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Contribution of Categories to Other Nonroad NOx
Emissions
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Contribution of Categories to Other Nonroad PM2.5
Emissions
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Comparison of NONROAD Model 2001 NEI and 2002
VISTAS Inventory

• SO2, PM, and NH3 decrease consistently across all
  States
• SO2 decreases due in part to lower diesel fuel
  sulfur content
• CO and NOx show little change for all States
• Changes in VOC vary by State and depend on
  equipment category

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Annual NONROAD Model Emissions from 2001 NEI and
2002 VISTAS Inventory (tpy)
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Percent Difference in Annual Emissions - NONROAD
Model 2002 VISTAS Inventory from 2001 NEI
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Next Steps

• Complete QA of NONROAD model results and
  projected other nonroad inventory
• Develop emission density maps to examine county
  distribution for significant nonroad categories
• Develop State-level and category-level
  comparisons for S/L/T agency review
• Post draft inventory and comparisons
• Respond to comments on draft inventory

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Next Steps

• Document all emission estimation methods and
  assumptions
• Compile available temporal information (e.g.,
  monthly/county LTO data for aircraft)
• Identify select categories for further
  improvement (e.g., accuracy of CMV port emissions
  along State boundaries)