The success of the Montreal Protocols

1
The success of the Montreal Protocols

• Clarity of problem in short period of time
• Focused nature of the fix
• Existence of a technical solution.
• Collaboration between government and industry
• Use of public policy to
• Set quantitative goals for CFC emission
  elimination
• Transfer funds to aid developing nations
• Guarantee a market for industry for a fixed
  period

2
Environmental issues

• Global warming
• Ozone depletion
• Biodiversity
• Desertification
• Deforestation
• Resource depletion
• Ocean pollution
• Overfishing

• Toxic waste disposal
• Radioactive wastes
• Nuclear accidents
• Habitat destruction
• Fresh water
• Air pollution
• Sanitation
• Open spaces

3
Unpackaging and repackaging the environment

• The integration of the environment as a single
  conceptual issue has had political salience for
  30 years.
• Political and technical considerations suggest
  that it is time to unpackage it
• Technological developments are not closely
  related
• Need for many political/economic/health sectors
  to take ownership
• Need to connect climate change to energy
  production the energy/environment nexus

4
Reducing CO2 emissions

• Population control
• Conservation
• Reduction in energy intensity
• Shifting structure of economy
• Technological improvement
• Fuel shifting
• Sinks

5
Fuel Sources for 14 GtC/y in 2054
The largest target for carbon emissions is oil
used for transportation, with natural gas (for
heating) and coal (for electricity) close behind.
Technological possibilities create opportunities
for cross-overs between these sectors and thus
provide flexibility in how transportation needs
and carbon reduction goals can be met at the same
time.
6
World Energy Consumption by Region, 1970-2025
Source EIA, International Energy Outlook 2004
Developing world energy use will soar in the next
20 years, leading to energy supply competition
and environmental stress.
7
Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Imports,
1970-2025
(million barrels per day)
30
History
Projections
25
20
70
Consumption
Net imports
15
54
10
Domestic supply
5
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2025
70 of U.S. oil will come from foreign sources by
2025.
8
World Oil Reserves by Country, as of January 1,
2004
Source "Worldwide Look at Reserves and
Production."Oil Gas Journal, 100, 49 (Dec. 22,
2003), pp. 46-47.
More than half of proven oil reserves are in the
middle east.
9
Limited oil and other fossil fuels will create a
major opportunity for the upper midwest

• The major locus of energy generation will shift
  from the Gulf states (Louisiana and Texas) to the
  upper plains states.
• Biofuels
• Route of natural gas pipelines from Canada
• Wind source
• Upper midwest soils have rich potential for
  sequestering carbon.

10
Public policy experiments

• The electrical distribution system as public
  infrastructure
• Customizing policy and incentives to type of
  producer
• Invester-owned utilities
• Cooperatives
• Municipal power companies
• Public/private partnerships focused on power
  consumers rather than power producers
• Reorganizing government to combine energy and
  environment portfolios

11
What about

• The future of coal
• The future of nuclear power
• The future of biomass
• The future of wind