Quantitative Risk Assessment

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Quantitative Risk Assessment
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Hazard Assessment vs Risk Assessment

• Identify hazards and methods for remediation
• Identify risk arising from hazard and develop
  strategy to reduce risk to acceptable level.

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Precautionary Principle vs Risk Assessment

• Do as much as possible to reduce the emissions of
  the potentially harmful agent before science has
  proved a causal relationship between the agent
  and the harm
• Do as much as necessary to achieve and acceptable
  level of risk based on the risk assessment.

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• Risk Management
• Eliminate
• Transfer
• Cover
• Reduce
• Risk Perception
• A subjective matter
• Risk Communication

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Uses of Risk Assessment and Management

• Regulation and policy governmental level
• Problems of getting international agreement
  (Kyoto, GMOs, chemical contaminants (lead etc)
• Industry
• Compliance with regulation
• Product safety
• Financial planning

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Typology of Risk Assessment
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Semi-quantitative Risk Assessment

• Probability-Impact Tables
• Risk Registers
• What if? scenarios

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Event/Decision Trees

• Event tree volcanic eruptions
• Decision tree medfly eradication

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Probability-Impact (P-I) tables
http//www.ipfbenchmarking.net/consultancy_dfes_up
date/r30_guidetothedevelopmentofariskregister.pdf
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(No Transcript)
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Impact Description School outing
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Risk Response Plan
Example in Excel File
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http//d0server1.fnal.gov/projects/run2b/meetings/
PMGs/Nov03/Risk_Analysis_for_BCP.pdf
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http//d0server1.fnal.gov/projects/run2b/meetings/
PMGs/Nov03/Risk_Analysis_for_BCP.pdf
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Extra terrestrial Impact Hazard
The Torino scale
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Risk Register Examples
Excel and Word from 1GS314
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What if ? scenarios
Category 5 Hurricane losses (/million )
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Incinerator Risk Assessment

• Problem formulation?

Environmental Risk Assessment - Approaches,
Experiences and Information Sources
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Example

• Salzburg Excel file

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Monte Carlo simulation

• Generates a number of possible scenarios (similar
  to What if?) but
• Takes account of all possible values a variable
  could take
• Weights each possible value with its probability
  of occurrence.