TECHNOLOGY IN NATIONAL SECURITY

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TECHNOLOGY IN NATIONAL SECURITY

• THE COLD WAR andTHE NUCLEAR ARMS RACE
• MSE 193/293
• 10 October, 2005
• William J. Perry

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1970-1980 MOST
DANGEROUS PERIOD
Conventional forces of SU 3x those of US
3,000 Nuclear weapons on hair trigger alert
Missile Race
Window of vulnerability China with a
nuclear capability of unknown size

US responds with Offset Strategy


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COLD WAR OFFSET STRATEGY

• New Family of Intelligence Sensors
• (Smart Sensors)
• New Family of Precision Guided Munitions
• (Smart Weapons)
• New Designs to Evade Intelligence Sensors
• (Stealth)

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(images/video removed)

• video clips of stealth
• surveillance imagery of Iraqi convoys

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SECURITY IN THE POST-COLD WAR ERA

• MSE 193/293
• Stanford University
• 12 October, 2005
• William J. Perry

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TWO MAJOR SECURITY ISSUES POST-COLD WAR

• LOOSE NUKES
• CATASTROPHIC TERRORISM
• Q Do you mean other WMDs or does it also
  include attacks on critical infrastructure?

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LOOSE NUKES in EARLY 90s

• Cold War over, but still 20,000 nukes
• SU dissolved nukes in 4 countries
• These countries in some turbulence
• Congress passed Nunn-Lugar in 92
• I made its implementation top priority
• First step--denuclearizing former SSRs

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ASYMMETRIC WARFARE (Life is full of unintended
consequences)

• CYBERWARFARE---attack computers
  and commo links
• INSURGENCY WARFARE
• TERRORISM
• WEAPONS of MASS DESTRUCTION

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PROB. OF FUTURE ATTACKS

• INTENT
• CAPABILITY
• RESOURCES
• DEDICATION OF FOLLOWERS
• TRACK RECORD

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The WISDOM of OSAMA BIN LADEN

• SINCE I WAS A BOY I HAVE BEEN AT WAR WITH AND
  HATED AMERICANS
• TO KILL AMERICANS IS AN INDIVIDUAL DUTY FOR
  EVERY MUSLIM
• THERE ARE NO INNOCENT AMERICANS
• --------------------------------------------------
  --------
• TOM FRIEDMAN WHAT PART OF THAT DO YOU NOT
  UNDERSTAND?

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AL QAEDA CAPABILITY

• LARGE FOLLOWING
• WELL ORGANIZED
• INTERNATIONAL
• WELL-FINANCED
• MARTYR IDEOLOGY

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TRACK RECORDAL QAEDA ISLAMIC JIHAD

• Assassination of Sadat
• Bombing of Marines in Lebanon
• Somalia
• Khobar Towers
• Bombing of USS Cole
• African Embassies
• WTC and Pentagon---9-11

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COMPONENTS OF NATIONAL PROTECTION EFFORT

• DIPLOMACY--Stop Nuclear Proliferation
• MILITARYTerrorist bases/Host Nations
• LAW ENFORCEMENTTerrorist cells
• INTELLIGENCEDetect terrorist plans
• TREASURY---Bottle up terrorist finances
• TRANSPORTATIONImprove travel safety
• Center for Disease Control---Vaccines,
  Antibiotics, Training of First Responders

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Daves comments

• I think the previous slide creates a natural
  framework for discussing the role of quantitative
  modeling in national security policy.
• For each of the bullet points on that slide, one
  could enumerate and discuss some of the key
  policy decisions (and how quants can help).
• Smallpox could still be a centerpiece.

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Daves comments(2)

• What do you think about Critical Infrastructure
  Protection as another threat in the post-cold war
  era?
• While less catastrophic then loose nukes, a
  serious disruption in economy, transportation,
  electricity, etc. has the potential to be more
  costly than a terrorist attack at the level of
  9/11.
• Perhaps this is also included in catastrophic
  terrorism?