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8th EGU PLINIUS CONFERENCE
MEDITERRANEAN STORMS AND EXTREME EVENTS IN AN
ERA OF CLIMATE CHANGE
17-20 October, 2006 Dead Sea, Israel
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TOPICS

• Extreme events and Mediterranean storms under
  global warming
• Monitoring and diagnosis of Mediterranean storms
• Physical processes in the context of global
  circulations and tele-connections
• Hydrology and hydrometeorology of high intense
  storms
• Meteorological, hydrological and geological
  risks, disaster management and mitigation
  strategies

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ORGANIZING COMMITTEE Pinhas Alpert, Chair Eyal
Heifetz Hadas Saaroni Chaim Shafir CONFERENCE
COORDINATOR Ms. Karyn Nahari, Target
Conferences Plinius8 -c/o Target Conferences PO
Box 29041, Tel Aviv 61290, Israel Tel 972 3
5175150, Fax [phone] e-mail
plinius8_at_targetconf.com
INVITED SPEAKERS
Joseph Egger (Munchen Univ., Germany) Gidon
Eshel (Chicago Univ., USA) Akiva Flexer (Tel Aviv
Univ., Israel) Brian Hoskins (Reading Univ.,
UK) Piero Lionello (Lecce Univ., Italy)
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http//meetings.copernicus.org
VENUE The Crowne Plaza Dead Sea
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• Assessment of Global warming impacts on water
  availability in the Jordan River Basin
  (GLOWA-Jordan River)
• Regional Climate modeling
• Pinhas Alpert
• Dept. Geophysics and Planetary Sciences,Tel-Aviv
  University, Israel
• With S.O. Krichak, P.Suppan, I. Osetinsky, M.
  Dayan, H. Shafir, L. Sever, H. Saaroni, B. Ziv,
  P. Kishcha, T. Ben-Gai

In cooperation with Israeli Ministry of Science
and Technology
Financed by German Federal Ministry of Education
and Research
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• To determine the vulnerability of water
  resources in Israel in response to climate change
• To develop sustainable management practices in
  the watershed of the Jordan River

Katja Tielborger, Coordinator, Germany GLOWA JR,
Head in Israel, P. Alpert
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Annual mean precipitation- Current OBS(CRU) vs.
Model (RegCM) Control run 1961-1990
Annual avg. precipitation (mm) 1961-1990 CRU 0.5
deg
Annual avg. precipitation (mm) 1961-1990 RegCM
control 50km
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GLOWA Jordan River

Do global models see resolve the synoptic
patterns and/or recent synoptic trends?
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Averaged annual frequencies of occurrence over
1960-1990, for the main EM synoptic groups
ECHAM4/OPYC3 (black) NCEP/NCAR reanalysis
(red) HadCM3 (green).
Isabellas Ph.D. Thesis (2006)
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Red-Sea Trough days per year
(1948-2000)
ECHAM
NCEP reanalysis
The Bad news
Alpert, P. et al, 2004 Semi-objective
classification for daily synoptic
systems,Application to the E. Mediterranean
climate change, Intern. J. of Climato., 24,
1001-1011, 2004.
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Linear trends (1960-1990) in annual frequencies
of the EM synoptic groups and subtypesCEP/NCAR
reanalysis (solid red)ECHAM4/OPYC3 (dotted
black)HadCM3 (dashed green)Trends are
calculated with the least-square technique.
FIRST COLUMN WL group CL LW LE SECOND
COLUMN cool season highs HEHNHC total
(top) HE HN HC
THIRD COLUMN PT group PT-W PT-M SL group
FOURTH COLUMN RST group RSTE RSTC all HW.
Isabellas Ph.D. Thesis (2006)
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Red-Sea Trough
Isabellas Ph.D. Thesis (2006)
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Isabellas Ph.D. Thesis (2006)
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Seasonal course over 1960-1990a) total Winter
Lows and their components b) cold Lows to the
west,c) Cyprus Lows, d) Lows to the
east.NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (wide
red)ECHAM4/OPYC3 (black)HadCM3 (green)
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Seasonal course over 1960-1990a) total Persian
Troughs, b) weak Persian Troughs, c) medium
Persian Troughs. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (wide
red)ECHAM4/OPYC3 (black)HadCM3 (green)
Seasonal course over 1960-1990a) total RST, b)
RST with eastern axis,c) RST with central axis.
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (wide red)ECHAM4/OPYC3
(black)HadCM3 (green)
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Seasonal course over 1960-1990Sharav Lows
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (wide red)ECHAM4/OPYC3
(black)HadCM3 (green)
Seasonal course over 1960-1990Highs to the west
NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (wide red)ECHAM4/OPYC3
(black)HadCM3 (green)
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SUMMARY

• Large-scale predictions over the Mediterranean
  
• 3-35 rainfall reductions 3-5 0C warming
  by 2071-2100.
• First model zoom over Israel with a wealth of
  climate info
• Double (A2) or triple (B2) increase in heavy
  rain over north Israel -Jordan River Basin (70
  mm/d)
• Significant observed increases in the DRY Red-Sea
  Trough synoptic system not simulated by global
  models.

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Seasonal course over 1960-1990a) total cool
Highs HEHNHC, b) Highs to the east, HE,c)
Highs to the north, HN, and d) Highs over Israel
(central), HC. NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (wide
red)ECHAM4/OPYC3 (black)HadCM3 (green)
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