The Invisible Primary

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The Invisible Primary

• All other things being equal, the more campaign
  resources a candidate needs to win an election,
  the more decisive parties will be to a
  candidates efforts.
• Assumes
• Finite resources
• Party elites control those resources
• Important Not strictly determinative
• Candidates can still screw up!

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Invisible Primary Money
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Invisible Primary Money
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Invisible Primary Money
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Invisible Primary Money
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Clintons Schedule, 10/3/92

• 9 AMDeparts Adams Mark Downtown Hotel en route
  to Soulard Farmers Market, St. Louis, MO
• 915 AMArrives Soulard Farmers Market, 730
  Carroll Street
• 920 AMTours Soulard Farmers Market
• 940 AMAddresses the people of St. Louis,
  Soulard Farmers Market
• 1030 AMDeparts Soulard Farmers Market en route
  to airport
• 1055 AMArrives Lambert-St. Louis International
  Airport and proceeds to private time
• 12 PMDeparts St. Louis, MO, en route to
  Washington, DC

• 240 PMArrives Washington National Airport,
  Washington, DC
• 315 PMDeparts Airport en route to Washington
  Hilton Hotel
• 330 PMArrives Washington Hilton Hotel, 1919
  Connecticut Ave, NW
• 400 PMAnnounces formation of Italian American
  Leadership Council, Washington Hilton Hotel,
  Press coverage arrangements TBA
• 900 PMAttends National Italian-American
  Foundation Jeno Paolucci Dinner, International
  Ballroom, Washington Hilton Hotel
• Remains overnight in Washington, DC

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Candidate Receipts, 2004
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Party Identification
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Bushs Schedule, 10/3/92

• 825 AMBoards motorcade and departs Holiday Inn,
  Clearwater FL, en route to On Top of the World
  Retirement Community
• 842 AMArrives OTWRC
• 905950 AMGives remarks at retirement
  community open press coverage
• 955 AMDeparts
• 1015 AMArrives St. Petersburg/Clearwater
  International Airport, boards Air Force One
• 1020 AMDeparts
• 1115 AMArrives Homestead Air Force Base to view
  hurricane relief efforts pool coverage
• 145 PMDeparts
• 210 PMArrives Hollywood International Airport
  for Fort Lauderdale welcome
• 215 PMGives remarks open press
• 250 PMDeparts
• 255 PMArrives Naval Warfare Center Detachment
  for Historical Association Ceremony travel pool
  coverage

• 325 PMDeparts
• 330 PMArrives AMR COMBS Hangar for private time
• 410 PMDeparts
• 515 PMArrives Orlando International Airport,
  Orlando, FL
• 520 PMDeparts
• 550 PM Arrives Church Street Market for Church
  Street Market Rally
• 600 PMGives remarks at rally open press
  coverage
• 635 PMAttends private reception closed press
• 705 PMDeparts
• 735 PMArrives Orlando International Airport and
  boards AF One
• 740 PMDeparts
• 925 PMArrives Andrews AFB
• 935 PMBoards Marine One and departs Andrews AFB
  en route to White House
• 945 PMArrives White House

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Ignored States, 2004

• Alabama
• Alaska
• Arizona
• Colorado
• Connecticut
• Delaware
• Georgia
• Hawaii
• Idaho
• Kansas
• Kentucky
• Maryland
• Mississippi

• Montana
• Nebraska
• Nevada
• North Dakota
• Oklahoma
• Rhode Island
• South Carolina
• South Dakota
• Utah
• Vermont
• Virginia
• Wyoming

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Reform Effects
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Reform Effects
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What Is a Mandate?

• President Bush ran forthrightly on a clear
  agenda for this nations future, and the nation
  responded by giving him a mandate.
• Dick Cheney, NYT, 11/4/04
• Let me put it to you this way I earned capital
  in the campaign, political capital, and now I
  intend to spend it.
• George W. Bush, NYT, 11/4/04

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What Is a Mandate?

• Authority (and an expectation) to enact the
  policies and programs advocated by the winning
  candidate during the campaign
• OR
• Whatever presidents can get other political
  actors to believe

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Presidential Coattails
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Presidential Coattails
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Presidential Coattails
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Type of Mandate
Mixed
Change
Status quo
Mixed
Change
Mixed
Status quo
Mixed
Change
Status quo
Status quo
Mixed
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Post-2000 Election

• Bush won w/ EC margin of 5 votes, w/o the popular
  vote, and Republicans lost seats in the House and
  Senate
• Still, sought (and got)
• Large tax cuts
• Major education reform, including vouchers
• Other faith-based initiatives
• Major overhaul of the military

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What Is a Mandate?

• Authority (and an expectation) to enact the
  policies and programs advocated by the winning
  candidate during the campaign
• OR
• Whatever presidents can get other political
  actors to believe