Trends in Aging and LongTerm Care

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Trends in Aging and Long-Term Care
August 17, 2007
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LTC Expenditures Florida
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Trends in Aging Long-Term Care

• Number of aged will continue to grow
• Increases in retirement age and favorable
  dependency ratios
• Favorable long-term care nursing home utilization
  trends expected to carry for another 25 years
• Improved health and lower disability rates
• Lower rates of widowhood
• Growth of Assisted Living Facility (ALF) and
  Continuing Care Retirement Community (CCRC)
  industries
• Well developed network of home care providers

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Trends in Aging Long-Term Care

• Nursing home reimbursement rates growing five
  percent over inflation
• Shortages of health care professionals and
  paraprofessionals

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Growth in Aging
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Growth in Aging
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Share of Elder PopulationFlorida
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Dependency Ratios
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Disability Rates

• Since 1984 disability rates have been declining
  at about one percent per year.
• This trend is expected to continue. Between 2000
  and 2050 the rate of severe disability among the
  elderly is projected to be cut by half.
• Older Floridians are 45 percent less likely to
  require long-term nursing home care than elders
  from other states.

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Disability Rates (cont.)
Source AARP Public Policy Institute based on
1994 National Long Term Care Survey and U.S.
Census Bureau population projection middle
series.
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Shift to Assisted Living Facility (ALF) Care
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Informal Care Trends

• Stable marriage rates and declining disability
  imply that growth in the elderly population can
  actually lower demand for nursing home care
  because
• As the elderly male population grows more rapidly
  than the population of elder females, the
  availability of spousal care rises.
• The supply of healthy caregivers rises.

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Informal Long-Term Care
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Nursing Home Use Growth Florida
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Trends in Demand Nursing Home Care
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Summary Demand Factors
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Floridas Long-Term Care Costs Are Lower Than
Other States
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Negative TrendNursing Home Per Diem Growth
Growth Rate 6.7 Percent Yearly
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Costs Nursing Home Budgets Growth
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Trends in Nursing Home Costs
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Policies to Control the Growth in the Public Cost
of Long-Term Care

• Support and encourage family and personal
  responsibility
• Education
• Support and foster development of affordable
  long-term care options
• Aging Resource Centers as local contact for
  education, information and referral

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Policies to Control the Growth in the Public Cost
of Long-Term Care (cont.)

• Support health promotion and wellness
• Social
• Intellectual
• Physical

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Policies to Control the Growth in the Public Cost
of Long-Term Care (Cont.)

• Support a public long term care system that
• Favors community based care
• Promotes deinstitutionalization
• Removes any institutional bias
• Is customer centric
• Has flexibility
• Funding follows the consumer across care settings
• Service dollars can be used to supplement rather
  than substitute for personal/family resources
• Services can be used on a preventive basis

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Policies to Control the Growth in the Public Cost
of Long-Term Care (Cont.)

• Support a public long-term care system that
• Prioritizes and targets services based on risk
• Maximizes return on investment
• Integration/maximization of federal funding
  streams
• Integration of care
• Risk transfers/sharing
• Administrative efficiencies

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Comments Suggestions
Horacio Soberon-Ferrer, Ph.D. Florida Department
of Elder Affairs 850-414-2089 ferrerh_at_elderaffairs
.org
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