EU Ethanol Production Outlook

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EU Ethanol Production Outlook Potential for
African Imports

• March 2009

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Presented by Massimo Marletto

• Partners for Euro-African Green Energy
• www.pangealink.org

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• In January 2008,
• the European Commission proposed to establish a
  10 binding minimum target for renewables in road
  transport, calculated on energy content

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• This target has to be achieved by each of the
  Member States by 2020 through a combination of
  domestic EU production and imports from third
  countries

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• The aim of the report is to define the amount of
  ethanol the EU would need to produce or import in
  order to meet the proposed target

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EU Ethanol Production Capacity Today

• There are 51 ethanol factories currently
  operating in the EU with a total production
  capacity of
• 5.8 billion litres in volume
• 135.5 billion MJ in energy content
• (Note 1 litre of ethanol contains 23.4 MJ)

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EU Petrol Consumption Today

• The current EU petrol consumption for road
  transport is
• 142 billion litres in volume
• 4,543 billion MJ in energy content
• (Note 1 litre of gasoline contains 32 MJ)

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• Therefore, current ethanol production capacity
  corresponds to
• only 2.9 of gasoline consumption for road
  transport in energy content

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Ethanol Production Capacity in the EU by 2020

• 51 ethanol factories currently operating with
  total production capacity of 5.8 billion litres
• 10 ethanol factories under construction Total
  new production capacity should reach 1.4 billion
  litres by 2010
• 50 ethanol factories are planned with an
  estimated total of new ethanol production
  capacity of 7.1 billion litres by 2020

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Ethanol Production Capacity in the EU by 2020

• Therefore, there could be a total of 111 ethanol
  factories operating in the EU by 2020 and their
  combined production capacity could reach
• 14.3 billion litres in volume
• 334.7 billion MJ in energy content

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Petrol Consumption for Road Transport in the EU
in 2020

• Low scenario it stays at the same level as in
  2008
• Most likely scenario it increases by 7 compared
  to 2008
• High scenario it increases by 15 compared to
  2008

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LOW SCENARIO

• Ethanol production capacity and petrol
  consumption for road transport in the EU in 2020
• In the low scenario, expected EU ethanol
  production in 2020 would correspond to
• only 7.37 of gasoline consumption for road
  transport in energy content

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LOW SCENARIO

• For the low scenario, the EU would need to
  produce or import an additional 5.1 billion
  litres of ethanol
• Producing this amount of ethanol in the EU would
  require the construction of 40 more ethanol
  factories with an average capacity of 129 million
  litres each in addition to those already planned

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MOST LIKELY SCENARIO

• In the most likely scenario, expected EU ethanol
  production in 2020 would correspond to
• Only 6.89 of petrol consumption for road
  transport in energy content.

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MOST LIKELY SCENARIO

• For the most likely scenario, the EU would need
  to produce or import an additional 6.5 billion
  litres of ethanol
• Producing this amount of ethanol in the EU would
  require the construction of a further 50 ethanol
  factories with an average capacity of 129 million
  litres each

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HIGH SCENARIO

• In the high scenario, expected EU ethanol
  production in 2020 would correspond to
• Only 6.41 of petrol consumption for road
  transport in energy content.

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HIGH SCENARIO

• For the high scenario, the EU would need to
  produce or import 8 billion litres of ethanol
• Producing this amount of ethanol in the EU would
  require the construction of a further 62 ethanol
  factories with an average capacity of 129 million
  litres each

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• If as a whole the EU would have an ethanol
  deficit in 2020, it could be interesting to see
  the situation at Member State level, that is if a
  Member State is going to have an ethanol surplus
  / deficit in 2020 compared to the 10 target

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By Member State

• In all of the three scenarios analysed we have
  found that, compared to the 10 target, in 2020
• 19 EU Member States would have an ethanol deficit
• Only 8 EU Member States would have an ethanol
  surplus

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Member States with possible ethanol surplus in
2020 compared to 10 target

• Hungary
• France
• Lithuania
• Belgium
• Estonia
• Czech Republic
• Slovak Republic
• Latvia

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Member States with possible ethanol deficit in
2020 compared to 10 target

• Austria
• Bulgaria
• Cyprus
• Denmark
• Finland
• Germany
• Greece
• Ireland
• Italy
• Luxemburg
• Malta
• The Netherlands
• Poland
• Portugal
• Romania
• Spain
• Sweden
• United Kingdom

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• Through the analysis of three possible scenarios
  for gasoline consumption and ethanol production
  capacity in the EU in 2020, we have seen that the
  EU, in order to reach the 10 target, would
  probably have an ethanol deficit that could go
  from a minimum of 5.1 billion litres to a maximum
  of 8 billion litres

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• In other words, in order to fill this ethanol
  deficit the EU would have to build a further 40
  to 62 ethanol factories with an average capacity
  of 129 million litres each

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• The construction of those further factories is
  quite improbable, given the fact that the EU does
  not plan to achieve the 10 target only through
  domestic production, but through a combination of
  domestic EU production and imports from third
  countries

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• Therefore, it is safe to assume that the EUs
  Member States will need to import between 5.1
  billion and 8.1 billion litres annually between
  2010 and 2020.

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(No Transcript)
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Thank you for your attention.